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The Las Vegas Aces and Indiana Fever will meet for one last time on Tuesday night in Game 5 of their semifinal series. The winner will advance to the 2025 WNBA Finals to face the Phoenix Mercury, and the loser will go home. The stakes don’t get much bigger than this.Â
A little over two months ago, the Aces were toiling away near the bottom of the playoff picture with a sub-.500 record, but they closed the regular season on a 16-game winning streak to earn the No. 2 seed and establish themselves as title contenders. During the playoffs, however, they haven’t looked as dominant as they did down the stretch. They escaped with a one-point win over the Seattle Storm in the deciding Game 3 of their first-round series, and now face another winner-take-all situation in the semis.Â
No one expected the Fever to still be playing. Their season started off with so much promise, but was quickly derailed by injuries — notably a series of leg issues for Caitlin Clark, who only ended up playing 13 games before being ruled out for good. All told, the Fever lost five players to season-ending injuries and had to scrape and claw their way into the playoffs. They upset the No. 3 seed Atlanta Dream in the first round, however, thanks to a dramatic Game 3 comeback, and have managed to push the Aces to the distance as well.Â
The oddsmakers at DraftKings have the Aces (-8) favored over the Fever in Game 5, with the over/under set at 158.5
Will the Aces get back to the Finals for the third time in four years? Or will the Fever’s remarkable run continue? Let’s see what our panel of experts has to say.Â
Aces vs. Fever Game 5 of WNBA semifinals
Ayala: Aces. I hopped on the “We Need To Talk Now” podcast ahead of the semifinals and predicted Aces in 5. I’m gonna stick with that, even though it’s very difficult to pick against a scrappy and impressive Fever squad. In order for Las Vegas to win, Chelsea Gray needs to have a stellar, Point Gawd-esque game.Â
Gibbs: Aces. This Fever team has been absolutely incredible this postseason, and I expect them to fight until the very last moment and deftly exploit any weakness the Aces show. But I just can’t pick against A’ja Wilson at home in an elimination game. She is the best player in the world and she will show why on Tuesday night. But she can’t do it alone. The Fever, despite their injury woes, have looked like the deeper team in this series. It’s time for the Aces to prove that’s a mirage. We’ve seen NaLyssa Smith and Dana Evans both have big games this series, but in Game 5, it’s time for Jewell Loyd to make her impact. She is averaging under five points per game this series; if she can at least double that, the Aces will be good. The Aces haven’t lost back-to-back games since July, so I expect a big bounce-back game from everyone. (I’ve been wrong a lot when it comes to postseason picks, so this should make Fever fans happy.)
Gonzalez: Fever. We’ve doubted the Fever so much that I think it’s time to acknowledge that the hunger and urgency they play with as the underdog make them really dangerous. A’ja Wilson is undoubtedly the best player in the world, but Aliyah Boston deserves a lot of credit for the way she guards her. Meanwhile, Kelsey Mitchell is playing some of the best basketball of her career. With the whole team playing as the aggressors and not being intimidated by Las Vegas, this series could see another upset.
Maloney: Aces. I’ve picked the Aces in every game of this series, and I’m not going to stop now. The Aces are 20-6 at home in the regular season and playoffs combined this year and have the best player in the world in A’ja Wilson. Las Vegas’ supporting cast has also been markedly better at home than on the road in the postseason. Chelsea Gray, Jewell Loyd, NaLyssa Smith and Dana Evans have averaged a combined 35.3 points on 50.5% shooting at home, compared to a combined 24.8 points on 45.1% shooting on the road. They should give Wilson and Jackie Young the help they need to get back to the Finals.
