Astros Receive Early Christmas Gift

The Astros’ facelift continues. One week after trading star outfielder Kyle Tucker to Chicago, Houston has dived into the free agent market and come up with a replacement: first baseman Christian Walker, now the beneficiary of a brand spanking new three-year, $60 million contract.

Walker didn’t establish himself as a major league starter until he was almost 30; he spent the mid-2010s stuck behind Chris Davis, Freddie Freeman, Joey Votto, and Paul Goldschmidt, in that order. But since claiming the Diamondbacks’ first base job after Goldschmidt got traded, Walker has established himself as one of the most consistent players at the position. Over the past three seasons, he’s had wRC+ marks of 122, 119, and 119, and posted WAR totals of 3.9, 3.9, and 3.0. That downturn in 2024 was informed by an oblique strain that cost Walker the month of August. If he’d played 162 games, he would’ve been right back up around 3.9 WAR again.

The former South Carolina star is 33, a bit old for a big free agent signing, especially a first baseman, and even more especially a right-handed first baseman. But he’ll be a tremendous asset to the Astros, and sorely missed by the Diamondbacks.

You want to know why this is a great deal for Houston? Come take a look at this. Take a peek. Take a gander. This is every season of 200 plate appearances or more by an Astros first baseman since 2015. That’s when the Process ended and the Astros got good. Think about how many All-Stars have come through Houston in the past decade. And apart from a couple seasons before Yuli Gurriel’s bat speed evaporated, none of that magic has happened at first base.

I dunno, some of those Marwin Gonzalez and Tyler White seasons look OK. Are you sure we’re not just being spoiled by how good the Astros have been at the other positions?

No.

Houston has many superlative qualities. It’s Space City, the energy capital of America, the most air conditioned city in the world. But most of all, it is the Mecca of crappy first base play. Over the past three seasons, Astros first basemen are a cumulative two wins below replacement level. That’s not only worst in the league, that’s the worst number at any infield position across that time period.

Not counting DH — where like a third of the league is underwater; that positional adjustment is a cruel mistress — there are nine positions where a team has dug a full win below replacement since 2022.

Apart from the Astros, every other team on this list has been dog crap. And the White Sox are on it twice, because they’ve been doubly dog crap. If anything, it’s impressive that the Astros have made the playoffs each of the past three years — and won a World Series along the way — while saddled to this absolute millstone of a position.