AT Set to Elevate Copper, Sabally & Mercury to New Level » Winsidr

The 2024 season made it no secret that first-time head coach Nate Tibbetts wanted his team to shoot a lot of threes. In May, Phoenix shot nearly 31 threes per game—a pace that would’ve eclipsed the record number of attempts by a team in a season (29.7 per game by the New York Liberty in 2023). And while the lack of efficiency with those shots and, perhaps, the habits of certain veterans caused those numbers to fall off, the Mercury’s final average was still 26.1 three-point attempts per game, nearly six more than they averaged in 2023. Thus, it was a surprise that Phoenix’s offseason movement—despite adding talent—didn’t seem to add considerably to the shooting ethos Tibbetts had spent a full season cultivating. Indeed, several of the newcomers (including Alyssa Thomas, Kalani Brown, and Sevgi Uzun) are low-volume or low-efficiency three-point shooters.

Regardless of the roster’s changes, Tibbetts has seemingly doubled down on his ambitions for the team’s shot profile. In speaking to PHNX Sports at training camp, he said that their mid-range shots would come “late in the clock, hopefully.” Tibbetts even told the media that he was happy to see another new arrival, Satou Sabally, taking only a handful of mid-range looks while Kahleah Copper said at media day that she had “bought-in” to her coach’s approach of a “rim and three” shot profile after reviewing the benefits the analytical approach brought her in 2024. Yet, with a roster overhaul that includes a ton of talent but not a ton of long-range shooting, the clear question becomes: how does Tibbetts reconcile his team’s skill set with his vision for a three-point-centric offense? The answer, ironically, lies heavily with Thomas, a player who last made a three-point shot in August 2014.

Indeed, Thomas, despite her aversion towards the outside game, is one of the most successful players in the league when it comes to generating high-quality three-point looks for her teammates. Tibbetts, in the same media scrum, even said that he felt the quick refinement of Sabally’s shot profile was made possible, in part, by the three-point looks that Thomas was helping generate for her. 

Copper, perhaps even more than Sabally, figures to profit from Thomas’ skills as a three-point creator as she aims to rebound after shooting just 31.4 percent on a career-high 5.9 attempts per game last season. Copper, of course, doesn’t need an incredibly efficient three-ball to be one of the game’s best players—as she proved by making Second Team All-WNBA despite last season’s shooting struggles. Yet, the addition of an offensive engine like Thomas, who is uniquely capable of creating high-quality looks for others, should ensure that the shots Copper takes (after her recovery from recent arthroscopic surgery on her left knee) are of consistently higher quality. And while there’s no specific science to it, higher quality looks should lead to better efficiency in time, especially for a player like Copper who shot above 40 percent as recently as 2023.

Mind you, a proven playmaker like Natasha Cloud, an exceptional scorer like Diana Taurasi, or a physical presence like Brittney Griner all garner the defense’s attention, but none of the three key cogs from last year’s team was capable of repeatedly collapsing the opposition’s defense in the same way that Thomas does. As soon as she puts the ball on the floor and attacks or posts up, nearly every defender in the WNBA needs help to prevent a Thomas score or trip to the free throw stripe. And once the defense starts to rotate, a simple pass to the corner may be all it takes to generate the open look that Copper needs. Given Thomas’ ability to draw attention to the center of the floor, it’s safe to say that—at least once a game—Copper should find herself in the corner within the natural line of sight for a Thomas drive-and-kick. And since Copper is amongst the most skilled attackers in the league, only the best of defenders can afford to press tight enough to deny a quick pull-up without risking getting immediately beat off of the dribble. Thus, a typical Thomas pass (which is both on time and on target) should offer Copper a clean window to get her shot off.

If Copper catches and fires from passes like the ones Thomas threw in the clips above, it’s hard to see her shooting so poorly from three again this season. In fact, similar corner looks are a perfect area to study for Copper after she shot just 29.0 percent combined in the corners last season. Granted, the corner shot has never been the predominant one in Copper’s arsenal as just over 15 percent of her career threes have come from there, but the efficiency she displayed in that area in both 2022 (48.0 percent) and 2023 (51.7 percent) was a big part of her rise from long-range afterthought (30.6 percent from three in 2021) to reliable three-level scorer (40.4 percent in 2023) across her final few years with Chicago. Even if corner threes continue to represent a small portion of Copper’s overall sample of shots, a return to the exceptional efficiency she had from that area with the Sky would’ve easily brought her overall three-point mark in 2024 up two or three percentage points. 

For a system like Tibbetts’ that’s so heavily focused on crafting a very specific (and analytically favorable) shot profile, those marginal differences in efficiency have huge consequences on overall offensive performance. With a playmaker like Thomas now in the fold, Tibbetts has every reason to station Copper in the corner more regularly (especially since Thomas will initiate the offense so much). Copper’s ability to attack the basket and finish consistently (62.1 percent FG inside five feet last season) only adds to the scoring options when the ball finds her in those spots against defenses in rotation.

Of course, threes aren’t the only shots that Tibbetts favors, with those same high-percentage looks at the basket the other coveted option in his system. Thanks to their specific blends of craftiness, body control, and touch, both Thomas and Copper can create and finish those inside shots all on their own, but Thomas’ work with the ball in hand should—again—create even more easy scores around the basket for both Copper and Sabally. The most obvious avenue for Copper and Sabally to get on the end of Thomas’ assists around the basket should be via the long outlet passes that became such a patented part of Connecticut’s approach during Thomas’ time with the team (and have already made their way to Phoenix).

As evidenced in the last few plays above, Copper and Sabally are already strong floor runners, but neither has played with an outlet passer quite like Thomas because, truthfully, there’s no one else in the WNBA (or, arguably, professional basketball) that has mastered this skill to such a high degree. And when Thomas is leading the break instead of throwing a pass up the court, there should be more opportunities to improve the quality of the aforementioned three-point looks. If Copper, Sabally, or any other Mercury player is out and running with Thomas on the break, the natural tendency of the defense to collapse to the basket in transition (or any time Thomas drives) should allow ample opportunities for others to fade to the wings and get an open look if Thomas finds resistance in her path.

This new-look Mercury team, with its length and versatility, hopes to put up more resistance on the defensive end than last year’s group (105.4 defensive rating, ninth in the WNBA). Typically, improved defense creates enticing opportunities to score early in the shot clock and the quarterback-to-receiver connection that Thomas forms with both of these players should offer Phoenix an opportunity to climb up the league’s transition scoring list. 

Indeed, Thomas’ addition should spur not just a change but a complete adjustment to the team’s tempo in transition after they finished dead last in fast break points in each of the last two seasons (and scored more than five points fewer than league leaders New York based on this metric alone in 2024). As evidence, the Sun scored the second-most fast-break points of any team in the WNBA across the three full seasons since Thomas returned from her Achilles injury in 2021 (1,341). Having the brain (and passer) behind so many of those points in Phoenix is a fantastic start, but the presence of physically gifted, high-IQ floor runners like Copper—and now Sabally—should instantly move the Mercury towards the front of the pack in transition scoring.

And even when Phoenix doesn’t score on the break, Thomas’ presence should create some looks in the half-court that Sabally and Copper simply haven’t benefited from in the past. Both have played with great floor generals (like Cloud and Courtney Vandersloot) and dynamic scorer-playmakers (Arike Ogunbowale, most notably) in recent seasons, but none of their past teammates (besides, perhaps, Candace Parker in Chicago) are nearly the physical presence that Thomas is. For Sabally in particular, this is a notable change. Because while opposing defenses were eager to send help toward Ogunbowale’s drives in Dallas, the extra numbers sent wouldn’t often have been the ones tasked with guarding Sabally because of the physical profile needed to match up with the German forward. With Thomas driving, the defense has no choice but to employ an all-hands-on-deck approach, and the result should be more open lay-ins for Sabally around the basket than ever before in her young career.

More traditional posts like Brown and Natasha Mack figure—like a Brionna or Jonquel Jones in the clips above—to profit most from these situations, but Sabally’s size (6’4”) and movement means she too should find herself in a position to receive plenty of these passes. Of course, a portion of the frequency, undoubtedly, will be determined by the defense’s positioning and strategy when it comes to helping on Thomas’ drives. With the Mercury’s three stars making the offense appear a bit top-heavy, it’s no secret that opposing coaches will look to create game plans that ensure the first player who commits to help doesn’t leave Sabally or Copper wide open. Even then, good ball movement will always eventually outpace a defense in rotation, and Phoenix has the opportunity—especially with a high-IQ lead ball handler like Thomas—to manufacture scenarios where the decision on who helps is taken out of the defense’s hands.

For instance, a pick-and-roll combination between any two of their three stars should offer Tibbetts plenty of opportunities to create scenarios (like in the last two clips above) where the defense either accepts one of the two players in the action getting a high-quality look or helps off of the third. Sabally, as the tallest of the three, is the most logical option to hover around the dunker spot on the weak side and crash to the basket as the play unfolds, either to grab an offensive board or receive a point-blank dump off from Thomas or Copper when the defense meets their drives.

In an inverted pick-and-roll where Copper screens for Thomas, Phoenix can have Copper fading to the three-point line, Thomas driving to the basket, and Sabally lurking around the basket all at once. Unless the initial screen is defended perfectly and the defender who winds up on Thomas can match her physicality one-on-one, multiple helpers and crisp rotations are likely needed to prevent a high-quality look by one of the three former All-Stars. Toss a historically strong (36.1 percent career) three-point shooter like Sami Whitcomb in the corner, and it’s easy to see how the options to help are quickly limited if Phoenix can regularly get to half-court sets that force the defense into uncomfortable decisions. 

And even that level of detail looks past some of the simple—yet routinely effective—scores any Thomas team will create in the half-court thanks to the gravity she has with the ball in hand and her ability, again, to place passes on time and on target. Much like in transition, Sabally and, especially, Copper are willing and highly intelligent cutters. Regardless of the defense’s strategy or the level of prodding Phoenix’s offense can do, the Mercury should score lots of easy baskets like the ones below in 2025.

Even with all that said, there are still plenty of reasons this offense could struggle at times in 2025. As mentioned above, the ball always moves faster than a rotating defense, but that’s only if the offense keeps moving it. If the ball sticks and defenses have time to react, the options to double Thomas while keeping Copper and Sabally guarded increase. At that point, it could be down to players like Whitcomb (who dipped to 29.2 percent from three last season), Uzun (23.8 percent as a rookie), or rookie Monique Akoa Makani (a solid 40.8 percent shooter overseas) making shots, and there’s plenty of reasons why opposing coaches will live with that outcome. Even Copper, as mentioned above, struggled to shoot the ball effectively in 2024, and a repeat performance—despite all the good looks Thomas should generate for her—could tilt defenses one or two steps closer to the paint.

And at that point, the seeming lack of depth on the roster—especially in terms of the quantity of shooters—could become a real concern. Copper, Thomas, Mack, and Brown are all at their most effective when they score in the paint while Sabally, even after reaffirming her ability to shoot threes last season (45.2 percent), still took more shots in the paint (39.7 percent of all field goal attempts) than anywhere else. If the defense gravitates towards the area of the floor where all of those players look to score most often, the double and triple teams on Thomas (whose outlook as a scorer in Phoenix isn’t covered here—shockingly, 2,500 words didn’t quite stretch that far) are easier to generate, with the pressure on Sabally, Whitcomb, Copper, and any other Mercury players that take threes only ratcheting up more and more as the games go by.

In the end, the reality will likely fall somewhere between the best-case scenario—a dynamic offense with Copper and Sabally shooting above 40 percent on five or more threes per game—and a doomsday outcome where defenses pack the paint nightly due to poor outside shooting. Thus, the season’s success may ultimately teeter on Tibbetts’ ability to balance his preferred, highly-specific shot profile with the more versatile one his three stars—Copper in particular—are capable of executing. Regardless of how the offensive balance ultimately develops, Thomas’ arrival—even as a non-shooter in Tibbetts’ three-point-heavy system—should be instrumental in activating several key dynamics within the revamped Mercury offense.

All stats through the 2024 season. Unless otherwise noted, all stats courtesy of Basketball Reference and WNBA.com.