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This is the game of the season for the Seattle Seahawks. According to ESPN Analytics, the Seahawks have a 6.4% chance of making the playoffs. However, that could change dramatically with a loss or win against the San Francisco 49ers on the road.
After dropping the first two games, the team has to win all of its remaining games within the division. That would move Seattle to the top of the NFC West in head-to-head matches. The problem is that the Seahawks have the fifth-toughest schedule ahead (including these games within the division).
I don’t know how the Seahawks’ season will end, but it certainly depends on this game.
What are the main keys to the game?
The teams have changed a lot since the last matchup
The teams are very different from their versions of Week 6. The 49ers lost Brandon Aiyuk and have Ricky Perarsall in his place. But, arguably their biggest reinforcement is the return of Christian McCaffrey.
McCaffrey has averaged 163 yards from scrimmage per game against the Seahawks. He has at least 125 in all six career games he has played against them, including when he was with the Carolina Panthers.
If he does it again on Sunday, he will tie Jim Brown (who did it against the Eagles) as the only players with seven straight 125+ games against an opponent in NFL history.
The Seahawks have a lot more changes. A new linebacker duo in Ernest Jones and Tyrice Knight replaces Jerome Baker and Tyrel Dodson, who were particularly poor in the first game. The team will have rookie Byron Murphy back and the addition of Roy Robertson-Harris to the DL rotation. In addition, they will have a different cornerback duo with Josh Jobe and Riq Woolen playing in place of Nehemiah Pritchett and Tre Brown. Finally, Rayshawn Jenkins, who had one of the worst games by a Seahawks defender this season, is on IR and now the other starter at safety alongside Julian Love is Coby Bryant.
Perhaps the most anticipated addition is the possible return of Abe Lucas. We don’t know if he’ll return or how he’ll return, but he could be the change this OL needs to at least become decent. He hasn’t played since the loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers on December 31, 2024.
Has the defense really improved? Time for a real test
The defense seemed to be showing signs of improvement. Well, I thought so until I read big boss Mookie’s tweet. The Rams have failed to score more than 20 offensive points in seven of nine games this season. That includes a 15-point game without a single TD.
Was it the Seahawks’ merit or the Rams’ incompetence? Well, maybe a little of both.
A nice adjustment that Mike Macdonald made to his defense. To defend the run with two safeties deep in the field, he sends Tyrel Dodson on the blitz, allowing the defense to increase its numbers on the DL. This disarms Kevin Dotson’s double-team and the Seahawks defense, in a joint effort they manage to make the play.
One big difference has been Jones IV replacing Baker. In the play above, the former Seahawk takes a wrong angle to defend the gap and ends up helping the opposing block.
Notice the difference in Jones on this play, he doesn’t commit to a gap immediately and waits patiently, recalculates the route and helps stop the run..
The offense needs answers, not excuses
We’re already in Week 11, and the Seahawks’ OL won’t change drastically overnight. The return of Abe Lucas should help a lot (depending on his level) but it won’t solve a problem that has been neglected since the offseason.
The running game needs to become a threat. The Seahawks have faced the light box on at least half of the snaps this season and haven’t been able to impose themselves. As I said before, the OL won’t magically become a minimally decent unit, it’s up to Ryan Grubb to “hide” their weaknesses as much as possible.
Why not use more outside runs? Charles Cross had one of his best games when he was put in open space against the Broncos in Week 1. Do it again.
Another important factor in this game will be the screen. The 49ers DL is aggressive and screens are a good way to use that aggressiveness against them. After years of having nightmares with screens (on both sides of the ball) the team seems to have found a good way to do it with mid-screens to Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the middle of the field.
Finally, has anyone explained to Grubb that he is allowed to call play-action?
The team needs to convert pressures into sacks
The Seahawks are the worst team in sacks, with only four, since Week 6. This is a result of a sharp drop in performance from their two EDGEs, Boye Mafe and especially Derick Hall.
Mike Macdonald has been designing good blitzes, but the team has had difficulty executing them. For example, Matt Stafford was under constant pressure, but was not sacked once in the game. You can’t give the team a chance to throw the ball, or miss out on the opportunity to turn a 2nd&10 into a 2nd&20+.
Final Thoughts
Geno Smith has 5 losses, 4 TDs, 5 INTs and is averaging 16 points against the 49ers. This would be a good time to break the losing streak. The team currently has a 28% chance of picking in the top 10 of the Draft (mostly due to the incompetence of other teams) and their projected final position is 13. This isn’t the best case for Geno’s agent to present in a contract extension, even if he’s not the only one to blame for the losses.
Go ‘Hawks!
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