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The smooth, lefty stroke has aged like fine wine through baseball history. Ben Rice is one of the latest examples of a left-handed hitter whose swing alone makes him fun to watch. Moving through the Yankees’ system as a bat-first catcher, Rice’s explosive minor league performance the last year forced his name into the big league conversation when first baseman Anthony Rizzo landed on the injured list with a fractured arm.
Even before Rizzo went down, Rice was mixing in more time at first base at Triple-A this season. That’s where the organizational need was, and his skills were not quite suited long-term at catcher anyway. As you’d expect, his defense at his new position has been a work in progress, and the same is true for the rest of his game. At the plate, Rice is experiencing the same ups and downs that most rookies do: Pitchers are figuring out how best to attack him, and he is learning how to make adjustments at the big league level.
With a 102 wRC+ over 142 plate appearances, Rice has been formidable thus far, but much of that is due to his hot streak that came along with his call-up. Across his first 19 games, he slashed .267/.348/.567 with five home runs, including the three against the Red Sox on July 6, and a 154 wRC+ over 69 plate appearances. During his 18 games (73 PA) since then, he’s batting .143/.247/.283 with two homers and a 53 wRC+. Despite that recent skid, ZiPS still believes in Rice, giving him a projected 110 wRC+ for the rest of the season. No projections come without uncertainty, of course, but there is a reason why ZiPS – and other projection systems – are confident the under-the-radar prospect can continue to be above average at the plate. Let’s get into it.
Heading into 2023, Rice was a 24-year-old prospect in A-ball. Despite good offensive performances in 2021 and ’22, he wasn’t the type of player many were expecting to rise through four levels over the course of a year, yet that’s exactly what he did. With selective aggression and a knack for creating natural loft in his swing, Rice dominated minor league pitching from the moment the 2023 season started through when he got his major league call-up this June. The great minor league performance is a key reason for his robust projection. He walked a lot, didn’t strike out too much, and hit for power. Even without the gaudy overall production, the bones of that have continued during his seven weeks in the big leagues.
His 84th percentile SEAGER is fantastic for any hitter, let alone a rookie. He attacks hittable pitches at a high clip and has great feel for the strike zone, chasing under 20% of the time. Even though his numbers in the minors suggested his swing decisions were above average, this performance in his first chunk of playing time has reinforced that he can hold it up at this level.
As he’s struggled over his past 18 games, he is still taking his walks (12.3%) and the quality of his plate appearances is still strong. It’s a nice skill to fall back on through ruts like this. The slumps are going to happen, but swing decisions and plate discipline are foundational pieces that can help hitters emerge from rough stretches. Before diving deeper into Rice’s struggles and potential weaknesses, let’s round out the other piece that complements his swing decisions so well: his swing.
Like I said at the beginning of this piece, Rice’s swing has that look to it. It’s low effort, but still good enough to produce pull side lift. It’s a bit steep, but has enough adjustability not to get dominated by high heat. We’re still dealing with a small sample here, but Rice has shown some positive signs in the top third of the strike zone despite his .279 wOBA up there. He doesn’t chase above his hands often and can even get on top of pitches enough to drive them. Here are some swings with a variety of outcomes:
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