Best NBA Player Prop Bets 5/9/25

We’re back today with another exciting NBA slate featuring some of our favorite matchups here at Basketball Forever. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has run thousands of simulations on every game to expertly pinpoint our best player bets for tonight’s NBA slate. (5/9)

1. AARON NESMITH OVER 2.5 3-POINTERS MADE (+162)

Odds: +162Probability: 50.3%Projection: 3.3Edge: 12.1%Game: Cavaliers vs Pacers (7:30PM EST)

Our Basketball Forever betting bot has identified the best NBA player prop bet for today’s NBA matchups. The best player bet takes place in the Cavaliers vs Pacers matchup – with Aaron Nesmith showing value in the total 3-pointers made prop market. Our model has narrowed down Aaron Nesmith Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made as the best player bet for today. Our model projects Nesmith to make a total of 3.3 3PM against the Cavaliers in this one. After exceeding this line by 2+ in the last two games, we have a high degree of confidence in this particular wager.

Our model recommends placing a wager on Aaron Nesmith Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made at +162 odds and an attractive 12.1% edge, making this our best player bet of the day.

2. JAMAL MURRAY OVER 2.5 3-POINTERS MADE (+124)

Odds: +124Probability: 54.3%Projection: 2.9Edge: 9.6%Game: Thunder vs Nuggets (10PM EST)

The next NBA player prop bet our betting bot recommends playing comes in the Thunder vs Nuggets game, with Jamal Murray showing value in the over 3-pointers made prop market.

Over the course of the 24/25 postseason Murray has averaged 2.6 3PM per game. Throughout the last two games against the Thunder, Murray has been able to cover this line in 1/2 games, falling one 3-pointer short of covering in both. Our model suspects that with the series tied 1-1 and the Nuggets back at home, Murray will be launching the ball from the arch, leading to him exceeding this line.

The Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Jamal Murray Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made in tonight’s game, which gives us a 9.6% edge on the +124 odds.

3. SHAI GILGEOUS-ALEXANDER OVER 7.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+106)

Odds: +106Probability: 53.6%Projection: 8.1Edge: 5.1Game: Thunder vs Nuggets (10PM EST)

According to our model, our last best player prop bet for today’s NBA slate also takes place in the Thunder vs Nuggets game, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander showing value in the total assists made prop market. SGA is averaging 8 APG so far in this series, exceeding this line in 2/2 games against the Nuggets. Our model is projecting him to end tonight’s game with a total of 8.1 assists made, giving us a high degree of confidence in this wager.

The Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 7.5 Total Assists, with an edge of 5.1% at +106 odds.

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