Bracketology: NCAA tournament projection as of March 14th, 2026 &#8211; Inside the Hall

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As we roll into a huge Saturday of conference tournament action, there are still a few potential bid stealers out there, which means bubble teams will be keeping an eye on these conferences:

• Atlantic 10: The top four seeds have made it to the semis, which sets up a critical day. The best scenario for bubble teams would be for VCU to lose to Saint Joe’s and Saint Louis to knock out Dayton and then win the title tomorrow. That might be enough to knock VCU out of the field.

• Mountain West: While I think the league is good enough to get two bids, I don’t think San Diego State is an at-large if they lose in the championship game to Utah State today.

• SEC: Not sure where this Ole Miss team has been all year, but bubble teams will be pulling for Arkansas to put an end to the Rebels’ Cinderella run in Nashville.

In addition to watching today’s games, my plan is to scrub the seed list for any minor changes. There were a few areas at the end of various seed lines where the margins seemed razor thin, so I want to get another look at those, as well as update the lower seeds when more automatic bids are earned throughout the day.

Here’s a quick refresher about how the NCAA selection committee classifies wins based on the NET rating:

· Quad 1: Home vs. teams ranked 1-30 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 1-50 / Road vs. teams ranked 1-75· Quad 2: Home vs. teams ranked 31-75 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 51-100 / Road vs. teams ranked 76-135· Quad 3: Home vs. teams ranked 76-160 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 101-200 / Road vs. teams ranked 136-240· Quad 4: Home vs. teams ranked 161-365 / Neutral vs. teams ranked 201-365 / Road vs. teams ranked 241-365

The projections below are based on all games played through March 13th, 2026. Following the bracket, I included some quick notes on the last four in and the first four out.

WASHINGTON, DC (EAST)

CHICAGO (MIDWEST)

Greenville – March 19/21

Buffalo – March 19/21

1) Duke

1) Michigan

16) Lehigh* / Southern

16) Queens*

8) TCU

8) Georgia

9) Iowa

9) Saint Louis

San Diego – March 20/22

Portland – March 19/21

5) St. John’s

5) Wisconsin

12) High Point*

12) Yale

4) Kansas

4) Vanderbilt

13) Utah Valley

13) UC Irvine

St. Louis – March 20/22

Oklahoma City – March 19/21

6) Louisville

6) Tennessee

11) Texas / VCU

11) Miami (OH) / SMU

3) Illinois

3) Nebraska

14) North Dakota St.*

14) Idaho*

Philadelphia – March 20/22

St. Louis – March 20/22

7) UCLA

7) Kentucky

10) UCF

10) Santa Clara

2) Connecticut

2) Iowa St.

15) Furman*

15) Tennessee St.*

HOUSTON (SOUTH)

SAN JOSE (WEST)

Tampa – March 20/22

San Diego – March 20/22

1) Florida

1) Arizona

16) Howard / UMBC

16) Long Island*

8) Clemson

8) Ohio St.

9) Villanova

9) Utah St.

Philadelphia – March 20/22

Tampa – March 20/22

5) Arkansas

5) Texas Tech

12) Akron

12) McNeese*

4) Virginia

4) Alabama

13) Northern Iowa*

13) Hofstra*

Greenville – March 19/21

Portland – March 19/21

6) North Carolina

6) BYU

11) South Florida

11) NC State

3) Purdue

3) Gonzaga*

14) Troy*

14) Wright St.*

Oklahoma City – March 19/21

Buffalo – March 19/21

7) Saint Mary’s

7) Miami (FL)

10) Texas A&M

10) Missouri

2) Houston

2) Michigan St.

15) Louisiana Tech

15) Siena*

Last Four In:

Miami (OH) – The Redhawks had played with fire a number of times during their unbeaten regular season, and they were finally burned against UMass in the MAC tournament. They are still top 40 in WAB and I just struggle to see the committee leaving out a one-loss team. That said, the predictive metrics are not great, so sending them to the First Four in Dayton seems like a reasonable compromise.

VCU – After avoiding a bad loss in the A-10 tournament on Friday, the Rams need to take care of business against Saint Joe’s today. I can see a scenario where they lose in the final and they still get in, but I have a tougher time seeing them make it with a loss today.

SMU – The Mustangs seemed like a near-lock just a couple weeks ago, but they dropped their final four games of the regular season to land squarely on the bubble. SMU won its first ACC tournament game against Syracuse but came up short against Louisville on Wednesday. They rank between 41st and 49th across all team-sheet metrics and own four Q1 victories, including home wins against Louisville and UNC. That said, the Mustangs are 1-8 in their nine toughest road games and 3-8 on the road overall. The injury status of B.J. Edwards may play a role here as well, and SMU (as they should) is releasing info that he will be able to play in the Big Dance if they make it.

Texas – After losing to Ole Miss in their first SEC tournament game, the Longhorns are now just 17-14 (their win in Maui over Chaminade doesn’t count). Texas is 2-9 in Q1A opportunities but 6-9 in Q1 overall. However, they are just 10-14 in non-Q4 games with a Q3 home loss to Mississippi State and while a poor non-Q4 record didn’t keep them out last year, it’s still worth noting. The predictive metrics are strong, but their WAB has fallen to 47th, leaving them at risk if we see many bid thieves.

First Four Out:

Candidly, San Diego State is the only team here that can still help itself, but if they win today, they earn the MWC auto-bid anyway.

Auburn – After falling to Tennessee, the Tigers sit at 17-16 overall. No team has earned a bid at one game over .500, so I will not project them in my field, but some of the top-end wins could give the committee reason to include them.

San Diego State – The Aztecs knocked off New Mexico early Saturday morning, but as mentioned above, I am not convinced they have an at-large chance if they lose to Utah State later today.

New Mexico – The Lobos have some decent wins against bubble teams, but their WAB dropped to 58th after the loss to SDSU. Again, I think the Mountain West deserves a second team as a whole, but I can’t see the Lobos making it.

Oklahoma – Following last night’s lost to Arkansas, it’s probably too little, too late for the Sooners. They rebounded from a nine-game losing streak early in SEC play with some solid play down the stretch, but at 19-15 overall and just 12-15 in non-Q4 games, it’s unlikely they make the field.

Conference Breakdown:

SEC (10): Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt

Big Ten (9): Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Ohio State, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin

ACC (8): Clemson, Duke, Louisville, Miami (FL), NC State, North Carolina, SMU, Virginia

Big 12 (8): Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa St., Kansas, TCU, Texas Tech, UCF

Big East (3): Connecticut, St. John’s, Villanova

West Coast (3): Gonzaga*, Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara

Atlantic 10 (2): Saint Louis, VCU

MAC (2): Akron, Miami (OH)

Mountain West: Utah State

American: South Florida

America East: UMBC