The Las Vegas Aces are fifth in the standings and looking up at hosting playoff games (and at a civil rights lawsuit). The Minnesota Lynx lifted the Commissioner’s Cup, but slogged through July afterward. And Allisha Gray pocketed two-thirds of her base salary in one night by sweeping the All-Star Game competitions.
The 2024 WNBA season hasn’t gone as expected to this point, and there’s surely more in store when the league resumes Thursday. Each team will play around 15 games each before the playoffs begin Sept. 22.
The top of the standings don’t feature the Aces, the two-time defending champions who return four starters from the Olympic gold medal team. Caitlin Clark’s Indiana Fever and Angel Reese’s Chicago Sky are battling for the final playoff spots and Rookie of the Year honors. And the Phoenix Mercury are hoping to cap Diana Taurasi’s illustrious career by bottling up the magic from the 2021 Olympic cycle that led to a Finals appearance.
Here’s what to watch for in the last month of the season.
Aces as favorites? Not anymore
The back-to-back champion Las Vegas Aces (16-8, 4.5 games back) fell from overwhelming favorites to possible postseason road warriors looking up at the four teams that would host playoff games. The league’s playoff format is best-of-three first-round, followed by best-of-five semifinals and final. Playing the first two games of a series at home is a massive advantage, and Las Vegas used it to its advantage the last two seasons.
The Aces’ winning recipe was thrown off while veteran three-time WNBA champion point guard Chelsea Gray missed 12 games this season rehabbing a foot injury. The team struggled defensively and went 6-6, including its first three-game losing skid since 2019.
Upon Gray’s return, the defense improved by 10 points per 100 possessions, and the offense opened up for more success from 3. The Aces climbed back into hosting contention with a 10-2 stretch, but face the third-most difficult remaining schedule (.528 winning percentage) in the league. It also means there’s ample opportunity to overtake Seattle (17-8), awaiting in the penultimate regular-season game, and Minnesota (17-8), which it plays back-to-back later this month. Las Vegas still has two games each against New York (0-1 this season) and Connecticut (1-0).
In the Aces’ stead as favorites are the Liberty (21-4), the team they defeated in the 2023 Finals and the only one to take a playoff game from them (it was, expectedly, at Barclays Center in Brooklyn). Breanna Stewart (19.3 ppg, 9 rpg, 4 apg) and Sabrina Ionescu (19.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 6 apg) provided consistency while the team continued to build chemistry despite Betnijah Laney-Hamilton (knee) and Courtney Vandersloot (personal) missing games.
The Liberty face one of the easier schedules in the last 15 games (.442 opponent winning percentage ranks 11th-most difficult) with all four contests against the struggling Dallas Wings still remaining. — Cassandra Negley
Caitlin Clark leading Fever out of decade-long disappointment
The vibes in Indianapolis are immaculate, and Caitlin Clark’s rookie season is already historic. Clark, the leading candidate for Rookie of the Year, is the fourth player in league history to average at least 15 points, five rebounds and five assists per game. She’s averaging a league-best 8.19 assists, good for fifth all time and making her the third player to average at least eight per game.
Clark has lived up to expectations over the first 26 games of her professional career and could be even better over the last 14 of the regular season. During All-Star weekend, she said she was looking forward to not touching a basketball for a week during the Olympic break. It’s her first significant stretch of time off since before her senior year at Iowa.
The Caitlin Clark Effect has also carried over maybe more than anticipated. The team is averaging a franchise-best 16,898 fans per game, 5,000 more than its previous high in 2000 and on pace to set the league record. Washington averaged 16,202 in 2002, according to Across the Timeline.
The Fever (11-15, seventh) are solidly in the playoff picture and on pace for their best season since Tamika Catchings’ final campaign in 2016. Indiana is two wins away from tying its 2023 mark (13-27) and six from tying that 2016 total (17-17). Clark has the Fever on the upswing exactly as intended when they drafted her in April. — Negley
Can Marina Mabrey shoot Sun back to the Finals?
In an unexpected twist it is Connecticut, which had only one Olympian, with the most pressing personnel questions out of the break. In a rare midseason trade, the Sun added veteran guard Marina Mabrey from the Chicago Sky to bolster their 10th-ranked 3-point shooting (31.4%).
The struggles proved problematic in all three of their losses to New York, which leads the league in made 3s per game. And though the Sun are in second place, they’ve yet to defeat New York, fourth-place Seattle (0-1) or Las Vegas (0-1). The only two wins against a top-five team are against Minnesota by a combined six points, including a one-point overtime win in May.
Mabrey gives the Sun (18-6) more perimeter offense alongside DeWanna Bonner, which will also give Alyssa Thomas and Brionna Jones more space to work inside. Mabrey fell into a career-worst slump for the Sky earlier this year, but is a career 35.8% shooter and played her best games of the season against New York. In four games, she shot 13-of-25. That’s the late-season X-Factor that could lift the Sun to their first WNBA championship. — Negley
What does the Marina Mabrey trade mean for the Sky?
Mabrey’s trade to the Sun could improve Connecticut’s playoff chances, but its impact on the Sky is a bit more subtle.
Mabrey came to Chicago in 2023 after three years in Dallas, and the Sky paid a big price to acquire the guard. Former coach and GM James Wade gave up two first-round picks, a second and a third, and the rights to current Liberty player Leonnie Fiebich for Mabrey. Many people didn’t see Wade’s vision, and whatever it was, it never came to fruition as he left months later for an NBA assistant job. Teresa Weatherspoon was left to pick up the pieces and move the Sky forward. The Mabrey trade to Connecticut is just another of those steps.
Despite Mabrey being Chicago’s second-leading scorer this season, Chennedy Carter, Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso have emerged as the future of the franchise. Carter has found her fit with Weatherspoon and is capitalizing. Meanwhile, first-round picks Reese and Cardoso have immense potential as individual players and also as a formidable post duo. With Carter, who is one of the best shot-creators in the league, you have a Big 3 to build around. Mabrey doesn’t necessarily fit into the team as a role player, so sending her to Connecticut makes sense.
The Sky are currently fighting for a playoff spot and likely won’t make too much noise in the playoffs. But the second half of the season will really allow Carter, Reese and Cardoso to step into the spotlight, giving fans a glimpse of what’s to come. — Eden Laase
Who can win the Paige Bueckers sweepstakes?
The bottom of the standings is the race for Paige Bueckers, the 2021 national player of the year at UConn, but don’t expect any tanking. Unlike the NBA, the WNBA Draft lottery takes the cumulative records for the last two years into account for lottery odds.
Los Angeles is on pace for the best odds after finishing 17-23 in 2023 and sitting at 6-18 currently (23-41 cumulative). The franchise began a full rebuild this year in Curt Miller’s second season at the helm…
