Can Kim Mulkey and No. 5 LSU finally beat a highly-ranked SEC opponent?

After No. 5 LSU lost their SEC opener to No. 11 Kentucky on Thursday, Reed Darcey, the women’s basketball reporter for The Advocate, shared on social media that, under head coach Kim Mulkey, the Tigers have not beaten an SEC opponent ranked in the top 12 in the AP poll.

Mulkey and the LSU faithful, of course, can flash their national championship ring finger (and possibly their middle finger, too) at those who trumpet that fact. A national championship matters more than conference regular season or conference tournament wins.

However, even though the Tigers triumphed in 2023, winning it all usually is preceded by conference victories over highly-ranked foes that prove a team to be championship-quality.

And after Thursday’s result, LSU’s championship upside is under scrutiny, with the skepticism exacerbated by the Tigers’ particularly soft pre-conference schedule, when LSU to repeatedly rolled up gaudy numbers against unthreatening opponents. Never having experienced anything close to adversity, the Tigers appeared unprepared for the increased intensity of SEC play, as they were unable to force turnover after turnover to generate transition bucket after transition bucket, as was their dominant game script prior to Thursday’s loss to Kentucky.

On Sunday afternoon, LSU can prove these critiques to be premature. But to do so, the Tigers will have to beat a top-12 SEC team for the first time in the Mulkey Era. And they’ll have to do so on the road. LSU travels to Nashville to take on No. 12-ranked and undefeated Vanderbilt at 5 p.m. ET (ESPN).

Will LSU show they they belong in the contender lane? Or, will they be stuck in the pretender lane?

Expect LSU to own the glass—or else

Mulkey, certainly, will be emphasizing the glass, as the Tigers not only lost the rebounding battle for just the second time this season against Kentucky, but were dominated by the Wildcats on the boards in a manner rare for a Mulkey-coached team.

Kentucky outrebounded LSU 45-29, with 17 of those boards being offensive rebounds that the ’Cats turned into 18 second-chance points. In contrast, LSU grabbed only four offensive rebounds, the lowest single-game output of Mulkey’s tenure. Sophomore center Kate Koval and freshman forward Grace Knox, two players who had found success on the glass in earlier games, seemed particularly unprepared to wrestle with the long and strong Wildcats. After the game, Mulkey bemoaned her team’s performance on the boards, saying:

I’m just stunned that we got outrebounded like we did. That literally was the difference in the game.

If you would’ve told me that we would’ve been outrebounded with this group I have, there’s no way I would’ve believed you. But that goes back to experience. That goes back to toughness. And we just got to get better.

Fortunately for LSU, Vanderbilt presents a much more favorable rebounding matchup, as they barely rank inside the top 100 nationally in rebounding.

Yet, even if it will satisfy their head coach, winning the rebounding battle will not be enough for the Tigers to send the Commodores to their first loss of the season.

LSU better find a way to stop Mikayla Blakes

Kentucky senior guard Tonie Morgan not only hit the game-winning 3-pointer, but she also lit LSU up for 24 total points, going 7-for-10 from the field and earning 12 free throws while also dishing out 12 assists.

In sophomore guard Mikayla Blakes, Vanderbilt likewise has guard who can keep her team in the game, possibly setting up another pressure-packed, down-to-the-wire finish that tests the Tigers’ mettle.

Blakes is averaging 24.7 points per game, the second-highest scoring average in the conference. Although a middling 3-pointer shooter, she will fire away from behind the arc, posing enough of threat to require closeouts that she then can attack before finishing around the basket efficiently. In the Commodores’ conference-opening win at Arkansas, Blakes dropped 35 points, along with a career-high matching eight dimes.

If LSU’s players prioritize trying to make defensive plays, rather than demonstrating defensive disciple, Blakes will be ready to exploit their eagerness and errors.

Blakes’ scoring efficiency, as well as her improved playmaking, has been boosted by the presence of Justine Pissott, who has emerged as a five-alarm 3-point shooter for the Commodores. The senior wing is shooting 43 percent from deep, leading Vandy’s top-1o ranked 3-point production with her almost three made triples per game.

As is characteristic of a Mulkey team, these Tigers are not a high-volume 3-point shooting team, taking only 15 per game, even though they shoot almost 40 percent behind the arc as a team. If the Commodores start draining 3s and the Tigers are responding with 2-pointers, LSU may discover that losing the shot-quality battle is more disadvantageous than losing the battle of the boards.

It’s all those strategic details that the Tigers had the luxury of ignoring during all their non-conference romps. In the SEC, maximizing every edge is imperative. Mulkey, of course, knows that, and she surely will have drilled her squad on the importance of executing all that areas she values.

But if LSU falters, failing, once again, to defeat a highly-ranked conference opponent, the criticisms of the head coach’s pre-conference choices will only increase in volume, and validity.