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On Monday, USA Today’s Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz published his second mock draft, which sent a defensive tackle to the Kansas City Chiefs with the 31st pick of the first round.
31. Kansas City Chiefs: DT Walter Nolen, Mississippi
Further investment in the offensive line can’t be entirely ruled out here, but trading Joe Thuney to the Bears and ponying up big for Jaylon Moore might wrap up the team’s offseason plan of drastic action for its biggest vulnerability. Dropping Nolen in next to Chris Jones would ensure opponents will have their hands full with the Chiefs’ interior line for some time.
In his first mock a couple of weeks ago, Middlehurst-Schwartz had the Chiefs taking Ohio State wideout Emeka Egbuka.
This time — even though Egbuka is still on the board when the Chiefs go on the clock — he sends Nolen to Kansas City with the 31st pick.
When I chided ESPN’s Mel Kiper for picking offensive tackle Kelvin Banks for the Chiefs last week, I noted that for Kansas City, “it’s almost universally understood that now, its biggest priority is along the defensive line.”
Since then, the Chiefs have re-signed defensive end Charles Omenihu and defensive tackle Mike Pennel — while also adding cornerback Robert Rochell. In my mind, these moves have put Kansas City into a position where it really can focus on the best player available with each of its picks. Nolen could be that player — as could Banks, for that matter. (I simply disagree with Kiper that Banks will be available at 31).
As we expected, other analysts are starting to get this message. When we last examined the data six days ago, 49% of the mock drafts since January 1 had gone with offensive linemen to Kansas City, compared to 34% with defensive linemen. But when we consider only the 20 mocks we’ve covered since March 15, (as shown below), it’s 45% to 40%. It might turn out that it will be very difficult to predict the position the Chiefs will cover with the 31st pick — much less who it will be.
Also note: starting with this article, we are listing guards and tackles separately in these tables, rather than combining them into an “OL” category.
National Mock Draft PositionsMarch 15-24
Position Pct
Tackle 30%
Defensive tackle 25%
Guard 15%
Edge rusher 15%
Defensive back 5%
Wide receiver 5%
Tight end 5%
National Mock Draft PicksMarch 15-24
Pos Name School Pct
T Josh Simmons Ohio State 15%
DT Walter Nolen Mississippi 15%
T Kelvin Banks Jr. Texas 10%
EDGE James Pearce Jr. Tennessee 10%
G Grey Zabel N. Dakota St. 10%
T Aireontae Ersery Minnesota 5%
DT Derrick Harmon Oregon 5%
DT Tyleik Williams Ohio State 5%
G Tyler Booker Alabama 5%
DE JT Tuimoloau Ohio State 5%
CB Shavon Revel Jr. East Carolina 5%
WR Matthew Golden Texas 5%
TE Colston Loveland Michigan 5%
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