Chiefs-Eagles Odds: Week 2 predictions from Arrowhead Pride

For the Week 1 game against the Los Angeles Chargers, every member of our panel picked the Kansas City Chiefs to win. Our aggregate prediction of a 28-20 Kansas City victory was remarkably close to the 27-21 final… except that it favored the wrong team! As it was, our pick carried 28 points of error.

About two-thirds of our readers also expected a close game — but to their credit, 10% thought Los Angeles would win.

In Week 2, the Chiefs host the world champion Philadelphia Eagles on GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Philadelphia is favored by 1.5 points.

Let’s see what the staff — and our readers — think about the matchup.

I’ll be honest: I have been dreading this pick. On paper, I don’t think this is a good matchup for the Chiefs. I don’t trust the pass rush against a much better offensive line or the cornerbacks against A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. On offense, I worry about the lack of wide receivers against the Philadelphia defense. I could see Vic Fangio throwing pressures and guys to beat the two young offensive linemen on the left side. But do I think Kansas City starts the season 0-2? No. Even though my brain logically concludes the Eagles will win this game, I just don’t think they will. I think Patrick Mahomes will play a great game — and at the end, the Chiefs will find a way to pull it out.

I’m always comfortable picking the Chiefs to win — even if they were defeated in the previous game or humiliated in the last matchup with the same opponent. Still, I think this will be a tight game that will turn on what happens in the fourth quarter.

For much of their Week 1 loss to the Chargers, the Chiefs looked like the deflated team that was defeated in February’s Super Bowl LIX. While Patrick Mahomes showed flashes late in the game, it wasn’t enough to change the outcome. Under head coach Andy Reid, Kansas City has started a season 0-2 just once: back in 2014. Mahomes, however, has never opened a season with back-to-back losses. But against an Eagles team with a fierce pass rush and balanced offense, history may not save them.

Based on what we saw last week, there’s no way the Chiefs should win this game. But in that same breath, that’s exactly why I believe that they will. Historically, it feels like the Chiefs often lose games they’re supposed to win — and win the games they shouldn’t. This feels like one of those games. When you combine the embarrassment from last year’s Super Bowl and Week 1 in Brazil, there should be no shortage of motivation for this team to win. From an offensive perspective, they won’t be blindsided without Xavier Worthy; they’ve had a week to prepare the game plan without involving him. On the defensive side, they’ll have their hands full — but a lot of their mistakes in Brazil were communication lapses. Those can be fixed. Finally, there’s one underrated factor: this game is at Arrowhead. Somehow, some way, I believe the Chiefs will find a way to pull it out.

Starting 0-2 has been unthinkable in the Mahomes and Reid era, but that’s exactly what the Chiefs are facing. After a flat outing in Week 1, Kansas City will have to rebound. Jalen Hurts stole the show in the Eagles’ season opener, so his legs — and those of running back Saquon Barkley — must be contained. The Chiefs must have a plan to stop DeVonta Smith, A.J. Brown and the rest of Philadelphia’s explosive passing attack — and the defensive line will have to play much better than it did against the Chargers. Offensively, Kansas City will be without wide receiver Xavier Worthy, but will face an Eagles defense that gave up 307 total yards to the Cowboys without defensive tackle Jalen Carter. The offensive line must have answers for Carter and the rest of the Philadelphia D-line. This would be a tremendous week for a vintage Reid, Mahomes and Kelce game — along with a steady dose of Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt.

In many ways, this will be Kansas City’s biggest game of the regular season. Coming off a disappointing season opener against Los Angeles, the Chiefs know they need to send a message to all of the doubters: the dynasty isn’t crumbling. Speaking more practically, there’s the matter of the Las Vegas Raiders playing the Chargers in one of two Week 2 Monday Night Football games — meaning that at least one AFC West team will be 2-0. Kansas City doesn’t want to be two games down in the division — especially with a head-to-head loss to Los Angeles already on their books. But this will be a tough game for Kansas City. If the defense keys in on the run — as it did against the Chargers — it risks being carved up by Philadelphia’s wide receivers. If it focuses on the pass, there’s a real threat from the league’s best running back: Saquon Barkley. Whether the Chiefs’ new offensive line can hold up to the refurbished Philadelphia pass rush is an article in itself — and the offense is short-handed at wide receiver. So if Kansas City is going to win this one, it’s going to be on the defense to make some big plays. I believe the Chiefs understand the importance of this game, so I’m picking them to win. But it’s going to be a nail-biter.

I think it’s going to get worse before it gets better. Pass defense was a glaring weakness for both the Chiefs and Eagles in Week 1. Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb’s dropped pass at the end of Philadelphia’s season opener may be the only reason this Super Bowl rematch does not feature two 0-1 teams. Unfortunately, the Kansas City secondary will have to cover A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, while the Eagles’ defensive backs will be responsible for Hollywood Brown and some castoffs from other teams. I do think the game will be more competitive than Super Bowl LIX — and I expect the Chiefs to start stronger on offense than they did against the Chargers. But I also think this is a game where Kansas City can show significant improvement from Week 1 — and still lose to Philadelphia.

If there’s anything I know about being a Chiefs fan, it’s that we never really know that much. On one hand, this team should be supremely motivated after a Super Bowl blowout — and the prospect of an 0-2 start staring them in the face. So they could bounce back with a stronger defensive game plan and a more aggressive approach on both sides of the ball. More of Patrick Mahomes’ deep shots could connect as young playmakers show they’re part of the solution. But on the other hand, Kansas City looked sluggish and predictable against Los Angeles. If that continues, this matchup won’t be fun to watch. Philadelphia is as talented as any team of the last few years — and with its strength in the trenches, it can control games. Which version of the Chiefs will show up? We don’t know. So in the absence of clarity, I choose optimism. I expect Isiah Pacheco to have a big game — and the Kansas City pass rush to make its 2025 debut.

With their predictions aggregated, our panelists expect the Chiefs to win 28-26. What do you think?

Since none of our contributors picked the Chargers to win the season opener, no one is covered in glory. But with 18 points of error in his call for a 27-24 Chiefs victory, John Dixon was the least wrong. Matt Stagner and Nate Christensen both had 20 points of error in their 31-28 and 20-17 picks.

To calculate a prediction’s points of error, the differences between the prediction and the actual score in point spread, home team score and away team score are added together. For example, a prediction calls for a 17-10 Chiefs win. They end up winning 16-10, so there were two points of error: the point spread was off by one point, the Kansas City score missed by one point and the opponent’s score was predicted correctly. But if the Chiefs lose the game 17-10, there were 28 points of error in the prediction: the point spread was off by 14 (the difference between +7 and -7) and both scores missed by 7.