Chiefs Playoff Picture: At 5-4, still a good chance for the playoffs

Eight games remain in the team’s 2025 schedule. After their Week 10 bye, Kansas City will be on the road to face the Denver Broncos, then host the Indianapolis Colts at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, play the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium on Thanksgiving evening, return home for matchups with the Houston Texans and the Los Angeles Chargers, travel to Nashville to face the Tennessee Titans, return home for their final regular-season home game against the Broncos and close out the season at Allegiant Stadium against the Las Vegas Raiders.

Let’s take a look at the team’s current playoff picture. As we always do, we’ll use The Athletic’s playoff calculator — an update to the New York Times playoff calculator we’ve used for several years — to help us project what could happen. You can learn more about how it works by clicking here.

The Chiefs’ playoff picture

As it stands right now, Kansas City has a 78% chance to make the playoffs, a 28% chance to win the AFC West, only a 4% chance to earn the AFC’s single bye, and a 7% chance to win Super Bowl LX.

To be sure, these numbers aren’t particularly encouraging. When we began publishing these playoff summaries on November 8 of last season, the Chiefs were 8-0 — and had a greater than 99% chance to make the playoffs, a 97% chance to win the AFC West, an 82% chance to earn the AFC bye, and a 19% chance to win Super Bowl LIX.

But after Sunday’s 28-21 loss to the Bills dropped the team to 5-4, plenty of fans have assumed Kansas City has no chance to even make the postseason. These probabilities show us there’s still a good chance to make the postseason — and even at two games behind Denver, there’s a fighting chance to win the division, too.

The playoff calculator allows us to assume the outcomes of remaining games and see how it changes the odds. For now, we’ll mostly focus on what’s in the team’s control; it’s still too early for complex scenarios.

How the Chiefs can make the playoffs

As strange as it may seem, Kansas City is still largely in control of its postseason fate. Winning all of its remaining games virtually guarantees a playoff berth. If the Chiefs win six of their final eight games — even losing once to the Chargers and once to the Broncos — they’d still have a greater than 99% chance to reach the playoffs. In fact, a 6-2 finish would almost certainly keep them in the postseason conversation, no matter which two games they lose.

But it gets significantly harder if Kansas City loses three games. In that case, the probability of making the playoffs drops to a range around 75-80%.

Four losses — a 4-4 record down the stretch — would likely still leave the team with a 35-40% chance to make the playoffs. But going 3-5 the rest of the way would almost certainly end their postseason hopes.

How the Chiefs can win the AFC West

Finishing the season 8-0 would very likely give Kansas City its 10th straight division crown. Losing one of the two games to Denver — while winning the other seven — would reduce that chance from nearly 100% to a little better than a coin flip. Losing to the Chargers and splitting with Denver leaves only a narrow path to the division title — about one chance in 25. Losing both Broncos games — even if the Chiefs win the other six — eliminates any realistic shot at the crown. Winning the remaining AFC West matchups would definitely help — but even then, any combination of three or more total losses drops Kansas City’s division odds below 50%.

How the Chiefs can get a first-round bye

The Chiefs’ four losses make it very difficult to earn the AFC’s top seed. Finishing 8-0 gives Kansas City just a 53% chance to secure the bye. The odds drop sharply with a single loss. Even if that loss comes to the Cowboys — an NFC team — the Chiefs’ chances fall below 20%. A single loss to an AFC opponent makes it even less likely. Two losses? Forget about it.

Kansas City’s postseason outlook is far less certain than usual at this point in the year. Still, the Chiefs can make the playoffs — and even win the AFC West — without any outside help. But their margin for error is razor-thin. It’s time for the Chiefs to see how they perform on a tightrope.