Chiefs Playoff Picture: Missing the postseason is a real possibility

Five games remain in the team’s 2025 schedule. A week from Sunday, the Chiefs will return to GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium for matchups with the Houston Texans and the Los Angeles Chargers, travel to Nashville to face the Tennessee Titans, come back to Arrowhead for their final regular-season home game against the Denver Broncos and close out the season at Allegiant Stadium against the Las Vegas Raiders.

Let’s take a look at the Kansas City team’s current playoff picture. As we always do, we’ll use The Athletic’s playoff calculator — an update to the New York Times playoff calculator we’ve used for several years — to help us project what could happen. You can learn more about how it works by clicking here.

The Chiefs’ playoff picture

As it stands right now, Kansas City has a 44% chance to make the playoffs (down from 57% a week ago), a 5% chance to win the AFC West (down from 12% last week), less than a 1% chance to earn the AFC’s single bye (unchanged) and a 3% chance to win Super Bowl LX (down from 5%).

This is the first time in the 2025 season that Kansas City’s chance to make the postseason has been calculated to be less than a coin flip — and it would have been even lower if the Cincinnati Bengals hadn’t defeated the Baltimore Ravens on Thanksgiving evening. That illustrates something that will be demonstrated repeatedly during the season’s final six weeks — wins and losses by other teams can significantly affect Kansas City’s postseason prospects. Up to now, we’ve primarily focused on what is in the Kansas City team’s control — but now, what other teams do can help (and hinder) Kansas City’s chances.

The playoff calculator allows us to assume the outcomes of remaining games and see how it changes the odds.

How the Chiefs can make the playoffs

By itself, winning all five of its remaining games will almost give Kansas City a playoff berth. There’s about a 1% chance the Chiefs will miss the postseason at 11-6. All Kansas City would need — in addition to a 5-0 finish — is at least one loss by the Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, the Chargers or Broncos.

By the same token, wins by all of those teams in the remainder of Week 13 would make it more difficult for Kansas City to make the postseason at 11-6. If all five of those AFC teams win this weekend, the Chiefs would have a 97% chance to get in at 11-6. (We can say this about some NFC teams, too, but we’re trying not to make you crazy with these scenarios).

We realize, of course, that many readers don’t believe Kansas City will finish without another loss. So what are the odds if the Chiefs finish 10-7? That depends on who beats Kansas City in the last five weeks of the regular season. The probability for the Chiefs to make the playoffs would range from 49% (if Los Angeles gets the only win) to 74% (if only Houston knocks off Kansas City).

How about 9-8? If the Chiefs lose the next two games to Houston and Denver, they’ll be out. But if Kansas City loses just about any other combination of two games, it’ll still have a postseason chance in the range of 8-15%.

How the Chiefs can win the AFC West

Kansas City no longer controls its own destiny in the division race. But winning out would give the Chiefs a 22% chance to win their 10th straight division title. That’s significantly worse than a week ago. On top of that 5-0 finish, Kansas City would need Los Angeles to lose not only to the Chiefs in Week 15, but also have two losses among the Chargers’ matchups with the Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, Cowboys, Houston and Denver. Then the Broncos would have to lose to the Chiefs in their Week 17 rematch — and have three losses among Denver’s games with the Washington Commanders, Raiders, the Green Bay Packers, Jaguars and Los Angeles.

As you can see, it’s still not impossible. But it’s not something to hang your hat on, either. That’s why winning out only gives Kansas City about a one-in-five chance to take the division. Before we give up on it, though, let’s see what Los Angeles and Denver do this weekend. That could change this math substantially — for better or for worse.

How the Chiefs can get a first-round bye

This is no longer on the table. If Kansas City makes the playoffs, it will have to play in the Wild Card round. Even if the Chiefs win out, they can’t win the top seed.

The Chiefs are in serious danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2014. Kansas City no longer controls its own destiny — which, in itself, is a jarring reality to face during head coach Andy Reid’s tenure — but even so, the Chiefs still have a shot to get in. And if they play well in the next five games, they might not require much help to make the dance.

But as the expression goes, that is a big “if.”

“At the end of the day, you’ve just got to win every game now,” said quarterback Patrick Mahomes after Thursday night’s loss. “I hope that’s enough. We’re going to play a lot of good ball teams coming up. If we’re going to make the playoffs, we’re going to have to win ’em all.”