Dream vs. Mercury Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bets for Wednesday, July 23

Two playoff contenders in the WNBA face off in a standalone matchup on Wednesday night, as the Atlanta Dream take on the Phoenix Mercury.

This is the second night of a back-to-back for Atlanta, as it was in Las Vegas on Tuesday night and suffered a tough loss to A’ja Wilson and the Aces. Atlanta is facing an uphill battle to close out this month, as All-Star guard Rhyne Howard (knee) will not play in any of the team’s remaining games in July.

As for the Mercury, the injury bug has broken in a much different way.

After spending most of the 2025 season without all three of Kahleah Copper, Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas in the lineup at the same time, Sabally and Copper have been taken off the injury report for tonight’s matchup.

Many of the best betting sites have Phoenix, which is 9-3 straight up at home this season, set as a sizable favorite to win this game.

Let’s break down the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for this standalone WNBA clash. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Moneyline

Total

Dream Injury Report

Mercury Injury Report

Dream Best WNBA Prop Bet

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Allisha Gray is worth a bet against Phoenix:

Dream wing Allisha Gray is having a terrific 2025 season, averaging 18.6 points, 5.7 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game while shooting 43.8 percent from the field and 38.6 percent from 3-point range.

On Tuesday night with Howard out of the lineup, Gray put up 24 points and grabbed eight rebounds to pace Atlanta in the loss.

Gray has now combined for 23 or more points and rebounds in six of her last eight games, averaging 16.6 points and 7.0 rebounds per game during that stretch. She’s already hit this number in 14 of her 23 games overall this season.

Even on the second night of a back-to-back, I expect Gray to be heavily involved for Atlanta on Wednesday. 

Since there’s only one game tonight, I also picked a side for this matchup in my column, as the Mercury are in a great spot to improve to 10-3 at home now that Sabally and Copper are back in action: 

There’s no doubt that the Dream have less firepower on offense with Howard out of the lineup, and they scored just 72 points on Tuesday against an Aces team that is ninth in the W in defensive rating this season.

Now, the Dream have to play the second night of a back-to-back against a Phoenix team that is third in the league in defensive rating and finally healthy for the one of the first times this season.

Copper has been limited to just six games in 2025, and Sabally and Alyssa Thomas have both missed time with injuries as well. Yet, Phoenix is 15-7 and firmly in the mix for a top-three seed in the W.

On top of that, the Mercury are 13-9 against the spread overall and an impressive 9-3 straight up at home this season. The Dream, despite a 13-10 start, are just 5-7 overall on the road.

This is a tough test for Atlanta, and with the Mercury finally playing all three of their starts, I think they roll on Wednesday. 

Pick: Mercury -7.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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