ESPN's Indiana Fever WNBA Championship Chances Turn Heads

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The Indiana Fever have got to be feeling good heading into their September 26 home game against the Las Vegas Aces. This Game 3 WNBA Semifinals showdown comes after the Fever and Aces split the first two games of this series, which means that Indiana can win this series and advance to the WNBA Finals if they win two straight games on their home court this weekend.

It’s hard to imagine that the Fever made it this far in the first place, given how injury-plagued his 2025 campaign has been. This is largely why all the postseason success Indiana is having right now feels like a cherry on top of what has been an overachieving season, considering what they’ve had to deal with.

That said, the Fever didn’t come this far just to come this far. Their dominant Game 1 win over Las Vegas proved that they belong as one of the WNBA’s final four teams and are more than capable of not only beating the Aces and advancing to the WNBA Finals, but winning a league championship this season.

Indiana Fever guard Kelsey Mitchell (0) points to her teammates Tuesday, Sept. 16, 2025, during Game 2 of a WNBA playoff matchup between the Indiana Fever and the Atlanta Dream at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. The Indiana Fever defeated the Atlanta Dream, 77-60. | Grace Smith/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

ESPN Gives Fever Solid WNBA Finals, Championship Chances

ESPN’s website has a feature called the WNBA Basketball Power Index 2025 (BPI), which assesses each team’s chances of making it to each round of the postseason and ultimately winning the championship, and is updated daily.

On August 27, ESPN’s WNBA BPI gave Indiana a 34.2% chance to advance to the second round, a 14.1% chance to make it to the WNBA Finals, and a 3.1% chance to win a WNBA championship this season.

Of course, the Fever have since overcome those unfavorable 34.2% odds and advanced to the second round. And given that there are only four teams remaining, it makes sense to see Indiana’s chances have increased drastically on several fronts.

As of September 24, ESPN’s WNBA BPI asserts Indiana has a 45.8% chance to advance to the WNBA Finals and an 11.2% chance to win the league championship.

ESPN’s model now gives Fever a 45.8% chance of making the Finals and 11.2% chance of winning it all. Let’s close this out in Indy! 🔥🔥 https://t.co/7uglGZOsMx pic.twitter.com/w8RVs8rmtQ

— Stavros (@StavrosForever) September 24, 2025

For those keeping track, this means ESPN slightly favors the Aces (54.2%) in this WNBA Semifinals series, although this is still a higher percentage than Indiana had before this series began.

It’s not a surprise that the Minnesota Lynx have the highest chances to win the WNBA championship (78.6%), given how elite they’ve been all season long, despite them being 1-1 in their series against the Phoenix Mercury.

Game 3 for both series is sure to sway these percentages massively, which is why Friday’s slate of games is must-see TV.