Matt Swartz, over 14 years, has developed a model for projecting salaries for arbitration-eligible players, which we have been sharing on MLB Trade Rumors.
In the baseball industry, arbitration salaries are determined by teams and agents through comparable player analysis. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would be incredibly time-consuming. Therefore, Matt has created an algorithm that considers factors such as playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while adjusting for inflation to estimate arbitration salaries. Although the performance of comparable players is important, our system does not specifically select individual comparables for each player.
It’s important to note that our projections should not be used as a definitive evaluation of an individual player’s performance by agents and teams. Whether a player exceeds or falls short of our projection does not carry any inherent meaning. These arbitration projections are intended to provide readers with a broad understanding of a team’s payroll situation.
The service time figures provided are unofficial. Additionally, the Super Two cutoff, which determines which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration, has not been established. This could result in some late entrants being added to the list. It’s also worth mentioning that contracts signed before the non-tender deadline are not typically considered standard arbitration comparables, as these agreements may be influenced by low offers made to borderline non-tender candidates in a take-it-or-leave-it manner (with “leave it” potentially leading to a non-tender). While not applicable to all pre-tender deals, this scenario is common.
If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections helpful, we encourage you to consider subscribing to support us. Subscribers to Trade Rumors Front Office had early access to these arbitration projections, along with access to our contract tracker and agency database, which are valuable research tools that rival those used by MLB teams.
Here is a list of the projections by team:
Angels (12)
Astros (10)
Athletics (5)
Blue Jays (10)
Braves (6)
Brewers (10)
Cardinals (6)
Cubs (14)
Diamondbacks (8)
Dodgers (9)
Giants (4)
Guardians (9)
Marlins (6)
Mariners (12)
Mets (8)
Nationals (9)
Orioles (15)
Padres (8)
Phillies (9)
Pirates (9)
Rangers (5)
Rays (12)
Red Sox (3)
Reds (10)
Rockies (10)
Royals (10)
Tigers (11)
Twins (14)
White Sox (9)
Yankees (10)
