With just two weeks left in the regular season, the two Wild Card races look like they’ll be the only source of drama down the stretch. Entering this week, the top team in the closest divisional race has an 87.8% chance to finish in first — that’s the most uncertain winner, according to our playoff odds.
This season, we’ve revamped our power rankings. The old model wasn’t very reactive to the ups and downs of any given team’s performance throughout the season, and by September, it was giving far too much weight to a team’s full body of work without taking into account how the club had changed, improved, or declined since March. That’s why we’ve decided to build our power rankings model using a modified Elo rating system. If you’re familiar with chess rankings or FiveThirtyEight’s defunct sports section, you’ll know that Elo is an elegant solution that measures teams’ relative strength and is very reactive to recent performance.
To avoid overweighting recent results during the season, we weigh each team’s raw Elo rank using our coin flip playoff odds (specifically, we regress the playoff odds by 50% and weigh those against the raw Elo ranking, increasing in weight as the season progresses to a maximum of 25%). As the best and worst teams sort themselves out throughout the season, they’ll filter to the top and bottom of the rankings, while the exercise will remain reactive to hot streaks or cold snaps.
First up are the full rankings, presented in a sortable table. Below that, I’ve grouped the teams into tiers with comments on a handful of clubs. You’ll notice that the official ordinal rankings don’t always match the tiers — I’ve taken some editorial liberties when grouping teams together — but generally, the ordering is consistent. One thing to note: The playoff odds listed in the tables below are our standard Depth Charts odds, not the coin flip odds that are used in the ranking formula.
Complete Power Rankings
Rank
Team
Record
Elo
Opponent Elo
Playoff Odds
Power Score
Δ
1
Padres
85-65
1574
1502
98.6%
1613
1
2
Phillies
90-59
1571
1492
100.0%
1612
2
3
Dodgers
88-61
1566
1496
100.0%
1608
-2
4
Diamondbacks
83-66
1574
1501
88.8%
1601
-1
5
Astros
81-68
1558
1498
97.8%
1596
0
6
Brewers
86-63
1544
1492
100.0%
1591
0
7
Yankees
87-63
1531
1504
100.0%
1582
1
8
Guardians
86-64
1521
1493
100.0%
1574
1
9
Royals
82-68
1522
1497
97.2%
1572
-2
10
Mets
81-68
1557
1501
44.6%
1553
0
11
Orioles
84-66
1492
1497
99.7%
1551
0
12
Braves
81-68
1528
1498
67.9%
1528
0
13
Twins
79-70
1486
1489
84.6%
1525
0
14
Tigers
77-73
1534
1494
9.6%
1480
0
15
Cubs
76-73
1526
1499
0.1%
1463
0
16
Mariners
77-73
1500
1495
8.6%
1458
3
17
Blue Jays
72-78
1511
1512
0.0%
1451
4
18
Reds
73-78
1500
1499
0.0%
1442
2
19
Cardinals
74-75
1498
1501
0.0%
1441
-2
20
Rays
73-77
1495
1507
0.1%
1438
-4
21
Pirates
71-78
1485
1502
0.0%
1431
4
22
Red Sox
75-75
1474
1505
2.7%
1425
1
23
Rangers
71-79
1476
1500
0.0%
1424
-5
24
Nationals
68-81
1469
1504
0.0%
1419
3
25
Giants
72-78
1467
1495
0.0%
1417
-3
26
Athletics
65-85
1465
149…
…
Tier 1 – The Best of the Best
Team
Record
Elo
Opponent Elo
Playoff Odds
Power Score
Padres
85-65
1574
1502
98.6%
1613
Phillies
90-59
1571
1492
100.0%
1612
Dodgers
88-61
1566
1496
100.0%
1608
The Phillies went 5-1 last week, dealt a blow to the playoff hopes of the Mets, and reclaimed the best record in baseball. Their seven-game road trip through Milwaukee and Queens this week is their last big hurdle before the playoffs, and they’ll probably have the NL East locked up in just a few days. Mostly, though, they’ll be looking to earn the top seed in the NL over the next two weeks while ensuring they get to October as healthy and prepared as they can be.
Thanks to the Dodgers’ woes, the Padres have closed the gap in the NL West to 3.5 games with four wins last week, including a dramatic sweep of the Giants. Fernando Tatis Jr. is quickly making up for all that lost time on the injured list, smacking four home runs last week, and Luis Arraez has simply stopped striking out since the All-Star break. San Diego’s remaining schedule won’t be easy: Its cakewalk three-game set against the White Sox is sandwiched between series against the Astros and Dodgers, and then the team finishes the season on the road against the Diamondbacks. The other thing working against the Padres in their push to catch Los Angeles is the clock. With only 12 games left to close the gap entering this week, San Diego has a mere 8.2% chance to win the NL West.
That’s good for the Dodgers, because they now have even more injury woes to worry about. After a setback on Friday, Los Angeles announced that Tyler Glasnow would be sidelined for the rest of the season with an elbow sprain. Thankfully, Yoshinobu Yamamoto loo…
Tier 2 – On the Cusp of Greatness
Team
Record
Elo
Opponent Elo
Playoff Odds
Power Score
Diamondbacks
83-66
1574
1501
88.8%
1601
Astros
81-68
1558
1498
97.8%
1596
Brewers
86-63
1544
1492
100.0%
1591
Yankees
87-63
1531
1504
100.0%
1582
With Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman nursing nagging injuries and Justin Verlander suddenly looking extremely mortal at 41 years old, the Astros are having to rely on the next generation of stars to fuel their postseason run. Houston lost a series to the A’s last week but made up for it by sweeping the Angels over the weekend. That helped the team maintain its position 4.5 games ahead of the Mariners in the AL West. The Astros will try to gain some more ground this week, with series against the Padres and Angels, before what could be a crucial three-game set at home against Seattle to open the final week of the season.
In a battle of two of the hottest hitting teams in baseball, the Brewers and Diamondbacks fought in a fireworks-filled three-game series over the weekend. Arizona barely avoided a sweep on Sunday thanks to a big extra-innings, come-from-behind victory, a win that helped the D-backs put a bit of daylight between them and the Braves and Mets in the NL Wild Card race. Meanwhile, despite Sunday’s loss, Milwaukee has all but officially locked up the NL Central; that’s important, because it has a tough schedule the rest of the way. The Brewers are set to play three games against the Phillies, followed by four more against the D-backs. Then, after a quick three-game trip to Pittsburgh, the Brewers host the Mets to close out the season, giving them a chance to play spoilers in the NL Wild Card race.
Yankees’ fans can all breathe a sigh of relief: Aaron Judge finally broke his home run drought with a mammoth, game-winning grand slam on Friday, and he followed it up with another home run on Sunday. And after winning series against the Royals and Red Sox last week, the Yankees are three games up on the Orioles in the AL East. Though this is the tightest division race in baseball at the moment, New York’s 87.8% divisional odds are the highest they’ve been all season. The Yankees head to the West Coast this week for a six-game, two-city trip against Seattle and Oakland hoping to build an even bigger cushion before they host Baltimore for three games next week.
Tier 3 – Solid Contenders
Team
Record
Elo
Opponent Elo
Playoff Odds
Power Score
Guardians
86-64
1521
1493
100.0%
1574
Royals
82-68
1522
1497
97.2%
1572
Mets
81-68
1557
1501
44.6%
1553
Orioles
84-66
1492
1497
99.7%
1551
On Sunday, Brady Singer became the first Royals starter to allow more than three runs in any September start this year. That stretch of brilliant starting pitching will likely carry the team to a surprise postseason berth and should prove to be a huge advantage during October. The Kansas City bullpen is another story. It has been stretched pretty thin lately and was saddled with two losses last week. The Royals begin this week with three games at home against th…