FIBA: Will Belgium, Meesseman or France, Johannès prevail in semifinal?

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The second semifinal game of the women’s 5×5 basketball tournament at the 2024 Olympics is Friday, Aug. 9 at 3 p.m. ET, with Belgium playing France (Peacock/USA Network).

This will mark the seventh time these two teams have ever faced off, with the current series tied at 3-3. These two teams play each other very close; however, France has won two of the last three games dating back to 2022. Here are some key factors to look out for during the semifinal match:

How will Meesseman and Belgium’s offense perform?

Belgium has been an offensive juggernaut throughout the tournament, led by star forward Emma Meesseman. Their ability to space the floor and share the ball has been the key to their success, allowing them to average just under 80 points per game.

Meesseman has looked like arguably the best player in Olympic competition. She recently went off for 30 points on 67 percent shooting against Japan and followed that up with an efficient 19-point, nine-rebound and six-assist effort against Spain. Even Team USA had very little answer for her offensively. France will look to disrupt Belgium’s offensive flow by pressuring their guards and denying Meesseman easy touches. It will be crucial for Belgium’s perimeter players to knock down shots and relieve the pressure on Meesseman, especially with their spacing and movement away from the ball.

Which Marine Johannès will France get?

France’s success in this tournament has largely depended on the scoring prowess of Marine Johannès. She has been a consistent offensive threat, using her quickness and shooting ability to create scoring opportunities. Much like her role with the New York Liberty, she is the definition of microwave offense. When she’s hot, she’s hot. However, this streaky shooting can be detrimental to France’s offense when shots aren’t falling.

Nothing epitomizes this point more than France’s last two games: a win against Germany where Johannès had 24 points on 8-for-14 shooting and a loss against Australia where she had nine points on 4-for-12 shooting. Both of these games epitomize her impact for France and why her performance will dictate their chances. Johannès’ ability to break down defenders off the dribble and hit shots from deep will be crucial for France’s chances. If she can find her rhythm early and draw defenders, it could open up opportunities for her teammates to score.

Which team’s style will be more effective?

Both Belgium and France play similar styles, thriving in an up-tempo, spaced-out style where they can run spread pick-and-roll and stretch defenses with shooting. As a result, matchup hunting will be crucial; both teams will look to protect their weaker defenders when defending, while exploiting the opponent’s defensive liabilities when on offense.

The biggest question is: How will these teams scheme and defend against very similar offensive strategies to their own?