FINALS – LAS VEGAS ACES VS. PHOENIX MERCURY » Winsidr

The Phoenix Mercury have punched their ticket to the WNBA Finals for the first time since 2021. Formerly considered one of the underdog teams in the playoff pool this season, they’ve firmly cemented themselves as the team to beat in this year’s Finals. On the flip side, the Las Vegas Aces have finally begun to look like the team so many used to fear during their dominant reign from 2022 to 2023. 

Las Vegas downed the Indiana Fever in Game 5 of their semifinals series, going to overtime to determine who would get the pleasure of facing off with the tough-nosed Mercury in the Finals. Behind a 35 point performance from A’ja Wilson and a 32 point explosion from Jackie Young, the Aces made that determination clear. 

This is going to be quite the series, with so many key frontcourt matchups to monitor and so much elite guard play to watch unfold. If the players that have already been getting hot in their respective semifinals series remain hot, this is a series that could go to six or seven games.

This is, also, the first WNBA Finals that will be a best-of-seven affair. This is a major test on both teams’ ability to stay healthy and to stay energetic through a potential slog. Injuries have unfortunately run amuck in this year’s postseason, so hopefully, this expanded form of the Finals doesn’t continue to wreak havoc on players’ health. 

During the regular season, here’s how the games between these two clubs went:

June 15: Phoenix 76, Las Vegas 70

June 29: Phoenix 81, Las Vegas 84

Aug. 15: Phoenix 83, Las Vegas 86

Aug. 21: Phoenix 61, Las Vegas 83

WNBA Finals Schedule:

Game 1: Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas – 8:00 p.m. EST on Oct. 3 (ESPN)Game 2: Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas  – 3:00 p.m. EST on Oct. 5 (ABC)Game 3: PHX Arena, Phoenix – 8:00 p.m. EST on Oct. 8 (ESPN)Game 4: PHX Arena, Phoenix – 8:00 p.m. EST on Oct. 10 (ESPN)Game 5 (if necessary): Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas – 3:00 p.m. Oct. 12 (ABC?)Game 6 (if necessary): PHX Arena, Phoenix – 8:00 p.m. Oct. 15 (ESPN)Game 7 (if necessary): Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas – 8:00 p.m. Oct. 17 (ESPN)

The wait is over! The championship chase starts today 💥 Mercury vs. Aces in the 2025 WNBA Finals. Here’s the full schedule 🗓️

Who do you have claiming the crown? 👀 👑 pic.twitter.com/29q09eJYEW

— Winsidr (@Winsidr) October 3, 2025

Matchups We Can’t Wait to Watch:

Ace: The Alyssa Thomas battle against…basically any one not named A’ja Wilson is going to be the one to watch. Las Vegas did not do a great job of containing her during the regular season, as she averaged 15.5 points per game (PPG) along with nine assists per game (APG) and 7.5 rebounds per game (RPG). On offense, the focus will perpetually be on Kahleah Copper and Satou Sabally – as it should. But, who is getting them going, generating open looks for them, and mucking up defensive assignments with drives to the basket? Thomas. Wilson is probably the Aces best defender on her, but that leaves NaLyssa Smith with the assignment on Sabally, most likely. That’s a tough gamble, and one I’m not sure the Aces win.

Owen: If you know me, you already know where I’m going with this one: Kahleah Copper vs. Jackie Young, of course! Two of if not the best two-way guards in the league, Copper and Young are good friends who also happen to draw one another’s assignments on the court. Both have WNBA Finals experience – Copper the 2021 Finals MVP, and Young a two-time champion in 2022 and 2023. Young has to do more for the Aces currently, as their depth is lacking compared with Phoenix’s productive eight-player rotation. Young has been more than up to the task, coming off a 32 point, 10 assist, zero turnover performance in Game 5 of the semifinals against Indiana, the first such statline in WNBA Playoffs history. Meanwhile Copper has been predictably and incredibly clutch for the Mercury, hitting massive shots in fourth quarters and overtime against New York and Minnesota in the first two rounds of the playoffs, while playing stifling defense and crashing the boards with verve.

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X-factors:

Ace: Satou Sabally has shown she is the biggest game buster available for the Mercury so far this postseason. She averaged just about 23 PPG on an extremely efficient 46 percent shooting from three point range in Phoenix’s three straight wins over the Minnesota Lynx to land in the Finals. She’s been a dogged competitor, feeding off of Alyssa Thomas’ on-court energy and leadership to help spark their offense when they’re in lulls. It’s something that happens a bit too often for comfort, but they managed to overcome that issue against Minnesota. They can likely do the same against the Aces. Sabally is The Unicorn for a reason. She can magically turn a game on its head and in favor of Phoenix by simply being assertive on the court with her shooting and trailing proficiency alongside Thomas and Copper. 

Owen: To me, this series hinges on the performance of Chelsea Gray. We all know what Gray is capable of. I’ve never seen a guard put forth a better playoff run than Gray did en route to the 2022 title. She’s a three-time champion in the WNBA and a genius of the game. The only question is whether at age 32 (she’ll turn 33 on October 8) and with a serious foot injury in the rearview, Gray can approximate her play from clutch moments past. I’ll say this: she’s doing a good job of it so far. Gray can’t dominate for the full 40 minutes like she used to, but she’s picking her spots in elite fashion and saving the Aces with savvy and timely defensive play-making. Offensively, she’s been too sloppy with the ball but her shot-making remains ludicrous. Even in 2025, betting against Chelsea Gray is a risky, risky proposition.

Bold Predictions:

Ace: This probably isn’t that bold, but I think this WNBA Finals series goes the distance to at least six or a full seven games. These are two teams with the mentality of, “I will not leave this floor with a loss,” and that’s a scary prospect for both squads that are looking to firmly plant their flag early on in this series. I do feel that the Aces’ OT victory over the Fever to get to the Finals was beyond promising, especially with Young and Chelsea Gray providing so much in support of Wilson in the waning minutes of the contest. If they stay hot, I trust that core of Gray, Young, and Wilson more than Copper, Thomas, and Sabally at the moment. I do feel that the Aces are going to snatch up their third Finals victory in four seasons. 

Owen: Hmmm, the oddsmakers have this series as essentially a coin-flip (the Aces are ever-so-slight favorites), so where do I go in the bag of bold predictions? I’m sorry but I am who I am, and so there’s only one answer: Jackie Young or Kahleah Copper will win Finals MVP. Obviously, A’ja Wilson and Alyssa Thomas are the overwhelming favorites to win this award, but what if both teams sell out to stop the opposing top player? Copper already has a Finals MVP trophy on her mantle, and Young is playing the best basketball of her career. Why not?

Stats through the first two round of the 2025 WNBA Playoffs.