Game preview: IU football eyes CFP semifinal in Rose Bowl bout with Alabama – Inside the Hall

LOS ANGELES – No. 1 Indiana football travels to Pasadena for a New Year’s Day matinee with No. 9 Alabama in the Rose Bowl in the quarterfinal of the College Football Playoff.

The Hoosiers enter the week fresh off a three-week break after earning the top seed in the second 12-team CFP. The Crimson Tide earned a come-from-behind victory on the road against No. 8 Oklahoma, 34-24.

Indiana makes its second-ever appearance in the Rose Bowl game and its first since the 1967-68 season. The Hoosiers lost to O.J. Simpson and USC, 14-3, on January 1, 1968.

Ahead of Thursday afternoon, here is Inside the Hall’s preview of the Rose Bowl game between the Crimson Tide and Hoosiers.

Game information

Who: No. 1 Indiana (13-0, 10-0 in Big Ten) vs. No. 9 Alabama (11-3, 7-2 in SEC)Where: Rose Bowl Stadium, Pasadena, CaliforniaWhen: Thursday, January 1, 2026, 4 p.m. ETTV: ESPN, Chris Fowler (play-by-play), Kirk Herbstreit (analyst), Holly Rowe & Kris Budden (sideline)Radio: Don Fischer (Play-By-Play), Buck Suhr (Analyst)The line: Indiana -7, Over/Under 47.5 (DraftKings)SP+ prediction: Indiana 31, Alabama 18 (71 percent chance of an IU win)

Meet the opponent

Alabama makes its first appearance in the 12-team version of the playoff in its second year with former Indiana offensive coordinator Kalen DeBoer at the helm.

The Crimson Tide erased a 17-point deficit in the first half in its first-round victory over the Sooners in Norman on December 19.

Junior quarterback Ty Simpson leads the Bama offense that scores 31.4 points per game. Behind Simpson, the Crimson Tide averages 270 passing yards per game. However, he proves to be inaccurate when his offensive line struggles to protect him.

Because of the inconsistencies of the offensive line, Alabama’s run game lags behind its passing game. The Crimson Tide amassed just 55 rushing yards in the first-round win against Oklahoma.

Also a former Indiana coordinator, Kane Wommack leads the Crimson Tide’s swarm defense. The Crimson Tide boasts a top-25 defense across most categories, allowing 19.2 points per game.

The return of defensive tackle LT Overton boosts a defensive line that allows 129 rushing yards per contest.

Thursday afternoon marks the first time the two programs meet and Indiana’s first SEC opponent since Ole Miss in the 2021 Outback Bowl.

Injury Update

Indiana released its initial injury report on Monday afternoon. To no surprise, defensive lineman Stephen Daley was listed as out. The lone Hoosier listed as probable is kicker Brendan Franke.

Omar Cooper Jr. is expected to play after suffering an injury in the first quarter of the Big Ten championship game in Indianapolis.

The required availability report will be released two hours before kickoff, at 2 p.m. ET on Thursday.

Storylines

Indiana eyes its first Rose Bowl victory

Thursday afternoon in Pasadena marks an essential day in Indiana University football history. Indiana’s cream and crimson fanbase is filling flights to Los Angeles area airports as anticipation builds towards New Year’s Day.

Last year’s trip to the iconic venue to play UCLA held value to the fanbase, but nowhere near the excitement levels of this week.

Indiana has spent the better part of the past three weeks downplaying the significance of college football’s biggest stage. Not only is the stage Indiana is playing on important, given the CFP, but its opponent and the conference it comes from are essential as well.

SEC programs spent the past two seasons knocking down Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers’ Big Ten strength-of-schedule. Indiana now has an opportunity to knock off an SEC and college football titan with all eyes watching.

If the Hoosiers prevail, the narratives will surely fade.

Who will the forecasted rain benefit?

The 112th Rose Bowl will unfold under far different skies than usual.

Rain is expected throughout Thursday, preventing college football fans from seeing the familiar sight of the sun setting behind the San Gabriel Mountains. Those damp conditions could complicate offensive game plans and potentially work in Indiana’s favor.

A downpour would likely force Alabama to lean on its running game, an area where the Crimson Tide has struggled to generate consistent momentum. That limitation could put added pressure on Simpson and narrow Alabama’s offensive options.

A more one-dimensional Alabama attack tilts the matchup toward Indiana, whose balanced offense is better equipped to adapt.

Indiana holds an edge regardless of the weather, but a rainy Rose Bowl could amplify that advantage.

Outlook

Few Indiana fans ever imagined the Hoosiers would face Alabama in the Rose Bowl, especially in Cignetti’s second year.

There is no predictable outcome, largely because of the uncertain weather. That said, Indiana is the nation’s No. 1 team for a reason. While it lacks Alabama’s blue-chip talent, it is the better team.

Cignetti’s teams excel after bye weeks, though a three-week layoff is unusual. Last year’s Rose Bowl showed that rest alone guarantees nothing.

If Indiana avoids a slow start and builds early momentum, it has the resolve to win its first Rose Bowl and solidify national relevance.

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