Getting a Sneak Peek at the 2024-25 Free-Agent Class: Starting Pitchers

MLBTR’s Starting Pitching Free-Agent Class Preview

MLBTR’s positional preview of the upcoming free-agent class continues with a look at the starting pitching market. It’s a deep group headlined by multiple former Cy Young winners and a “second tier” of front-of-the-rotation arms who are likely to command nine-figure deals.

Player ages, listed in parenthesis, are for the 2025 season. Stats are through play on Sept. 25. Only players who have appeared in the majors this year are included.

Former Cy Young Winners in Their Primes

Corbin Burnes (30)

Burnes will likely command the largest contract of any pitcher in the class. He’s two years younger than Blake Snell, healthier than Max Fried, and has the best recent track record of any pitcher on this year’s market. Dating back to 2020, Burnes touts a 2.88 ERA in 811 2/3 innings. He’s currently working on his fourth sub-3.00 ERA during that five-year span and his third straight season of 32 or more starts (four straight years with 28+ starts).

Burnes isn’t without his red flags. He’s nowhere near the strikeout machine he was earlier in his career. This year’s 22.4% strikeout rate is only narrowly north of the 22% league average for starting pitchers. He’s not homer-prone, averaging exactly one big fly per nine innings pitched, but that’s still a marked increase over the 0.36 HR/9 he averaged in 2020-21 — when he was still punching out 36% of his opponents.

That said, Burnes is throwing harder than ever, sporting career-high average velocities on both his cutter (95.3 mph) and sinker (97 mph), per Statcast. He’s avoiding hard contact and free passes alike, sitting on a 6.1% walk rate that would give him a better-than-average rate in three of the past four seasons. Burnes doesn’t look as overpowering as he did in his Cy Young season, but he’s still a durable workhorse and one of the ten or so best pitchers in the sport. In the past decade, there have only been nine free-agent deals of six years or more for a pitcher beginning in his age-30 season or later. Burnes will very likely become the tenth as he and agent Scott Boras aim for a $200M-plus deal. He’ll receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Orioles.

Blake Snell (32)

Snell didn’t land the $200M-plus he was seeking last year, with skeptics surely wary of his sky-high walk rate and his relatively up-and-down history. His two-year, $62M deal with the Giants contains an opt-out that’ll let him reenter the market, however. Early this season, that clause looked like a non-factor. Snell missed most of spring training while his free agency lingered, was rocked for 15 runs in 11 2/3 innings through his first three starts and went on the injured list with an adductor strain. He returned in late May, served up another 10 runs in 12 innings, and went back on the 15-day IL.

A bit more than a month later, Snell not only returned from the injured list — he returned to form. And then some. With the adductor injury behind him and the rust of a missed spring training shaken off, Snell looks better than ever. He no-hit the Reds in Cincinnati on Aug. 2 and has recorded double-digit strikeouts five times, including a career-high 15 punches against the Rockies on July 27. Snell has rattled off 80 1/3 innings of 1.23 ERA ball and worked six-plus innings in 10 of 14 starts since returning. He’s whiffed 38.1% of his opponents in that time against a 10% walk rate that’s still higher than average but worlds better than the 13.4% mark he posted in 2023.

Snell is arguably the best pitcher in baseball at the moment. The early struggles now look like anomaly. Snell has a 2.82 ERA over the past three seasons now (2.57 since Opening Day 2023) and he’s whiffed 32.4% of his opponents in that time. He’s been too dominant to be limited to a short-term deal this time around, unless he simply prefers the high-AAV, opt-out gambit. He should get the big contract that eluded him last winter. He’s unlikely to command $200M, but a five- or six-year deal with a premium AAV should be on the table, especially since he cannot be issued a second qualifying offer after receiving one last winter.

Other Potential No. 1 Starters

Jack Flaherty (29)

After several seasons marred by injuries, Flaherty enjoyed a mostly healthy season in 2023 — just in time for free agency. His 4.99 ERA between the Cardinals and Orioles was hardly appealing, but he hit the market as a 28-year-old former top prospect who, earlier in his career, looked to be emerging as one of the NL’s better young arms. Flaherty bet on himself with a one-year deal in Detroit and he now looks very much like that budding ace we saw back in 2019 and in the healthy portion of his 2021 season. In 162 innings, Flaherty has turned in a 3.17 ERA with a terrific 29.9% strikeout rate and very strong 5.9% walk rate. He’s hit a bit of a rough patch with a 6.43 ERA over his past three starts, but that’s only 14 innings.

The Tigers traded Flaherty to the Dodgers prior to the deadline, thus rendering him ineligible for a qualifying offer. There was some concern about the health of his back, but he’s made every start since that swap and carries a sharp 3.58 ERA with the Los Angeles Dodgers. If his struggles continue into the postseason and/or he misses a start due to back discomfort, his health could become a larger issue in free agency. As it stands though, he’s heading back to the open market ahead of his age-29 season and coming off a terrific all-around season. His age will give him a chance at landing a six-year deal, and even on five years he’s pitched well enough for an AAV that’d push him north of $100M.

Max Fried (31)

Fried — Flaherty’s high school teammate — hasn’t had his best season, but he’s picked up the pace at the right time, rattling off seven starts and 44 innings of 2.86 ERA ball dating back to late August. That’s dropped his season-long ERA to a quality 3.42 mark. It’s not quite the same standard we’ve come to expect from Fried, who posted a combined 2.66 ERA from 2020-23, but when your “down” season is a 3.42 in 165 2/3 innings, you’re in a strong position for free agency.

Fried hasn’t been ultra-durable, never topping 30 starts or reaching 190 innings in a season, but he’s been consistently excellent since establishing himself in Atlanta’s rotation back in 2019. He’s given the Braves 816 frames of 3.09 ERA ball in that time, with his only real long-term injury coming last season, when he missed nearly three months with a left forearm strain. That same forearm sent him back to the shelf for two weeks in 2024, this time for neuritis (inflammation of a nerve). There could be some trepidation regarding that forearm in free agency, but Fried is a borderline ace with a pair of All-Star nods, two top-five Cy Young finishes, and even three Gold Gloves. Only five pitchers in the past decade have scored a six-year deal in free agency as they head into their age-31 season, but Fried has a good chance to add to the list. He’ll receive and reject a qualifying offer.

Mid-Rotation Arms

Matthew Boyd (34)

Boyd has come roaring back from 2023 Tommy John surgery, stepping up in a big way for the AL Central-champion Guardians. He’s made eight starts since coming off the injured list and snapped off a 2.72 ERA with a big 27.7% strikeout rate and strong 7.8% walk rate. The injury bug has been a constant thorn in Boyd’s side, as he hasn’t made a full season of starts since taking the mound 12 times in the truncated 2020 season. The last time Boyd pitched more than 15 games in a season was back in 2019. Boyd has long shown the ability to miss bats and limit his walks. He has, at times, appeared on the cusp of breaking out as a big-name pitcher. He’s back at that precipice again and while his age and injury history are going to limit the length of his contract, he could still secure a two- or three-year pact on the back of his outstanding rebound.

Andrew Heaney (34)

Like Boyd, Heaney at multiple points early in his career appeared primed for a breakout. It never happened with the Angels, as he was oft-injured and inconsistent when healthy. Heaney landed with the Dodgers on a one-year deal in his first foray into free agency and parlayed a big showing in another injury-shortened campaign into two years with the Rangers. He’ll return to the market as a more solidified starter, having tossed 303 1/3 innings of 4.06 ERA ball over the past two seasons (including a 3.98 mark this year). Add in his brilliant half season in L.A. and Heaney can sell teams on 376 innings of 3.88 ERA ball with strong strikeout and walk rates (25.7% and 7.4%, respectively). Another multi-year deal should be there.

Yusei Kikuchi (34)

Clearly talented but lacking consistency, Kikuchi may have finally found a recipe for success after being traded to Houston. The Astros have more than doubled his slider usage and reduced his curveball to a seldom-used change-of-pace offering. He’s annihilated opponents since the trade, spouting off 60 innings with a 2.70 ERA, 31.8% strikeout rate, and 5.9% walk rate. Kikuchi is still sporting a heater that averages better than 95 mph and he’s now missing bats and eschewing walks at career-best rates. His age won’t help his case in free agency, but the trade ensures that he can’t be hit with a qualifying offer. He’s wrapping up a three-year, $36M deal right now that was signed largely based on potential and upside. He could find a larger three-year deal this time around now that he’s manifested that upside into high-end results.

Nick Pivetta (32)

Pivetta misses bats at plus rates and has improved his command considerably in recent seasons, placing him among the league leaders in K-BB% since 2023. Excellent as his rate stats are, however, they’re frequently undercut by his penchant for serving up home runs. Pivetta is among the most homer-prone starters in the sport, with a career 1.54 HR/9 mark and a whopping 1.81 homers per nine frames this season. Metrics like SIERA and xFIP, which normalize homer-to-flyball rate, frequently peg Pivetta in the mid-3.00s despite his earned run average regularly clocking into the mid-4.00s. It’s still likely that teams will be tantalized by his K-BB profile, however, as well as his durability. Pivetta missed a month earlier this season with a minor flexor strain, but that’s the only time he’s been on the big league injured list (outside a pair of stints on the COVID-related injured list a few years back). He’s a candidate for a two- or three-year deal, especially for clubs that play in pitcher-friendly parks.

Luis Severino (31)

Injuries ruined Severino’s final few years in the Bronx — but not in New York. He signed a one-year pact with the Mets last offseason as has proven to be one of the best short-term pickups for any club. Severino’s average fastball is down from its 97.7 mph peak but still sitting at a healthy 96.3 mph. He’s chewed up 182 innings over 31 starts for the Amazins and turned in a sharp 3.91 ERA along the way. His formerly plus strikeout rate is now a bit below average, at 21.2%, but his 7.9% walk rate and 46% grounder rates are plenty good. He’s also inducing infield flies at the best rate of his career, and his career-high 23 pop-ups generated this year are just as good as strikeouts. Severino has a big pedigree but hasn’t seen his results return to the ace-level form he displayed in 2017-18. He’s a qualifying offer candidate and could potentially even accept, but we’ve seen less-successful pitchers command strong four-year deals in recent years (e.g. Taijuan Walker, Jameson Taillon).

Spencer Turnbull (32)

A lat strain derailed what was shaping up as an excellent rebound campaign for Turnbull. The longtime Tigers hurler has been sidelined for two months with that injury and only pitched 31 innings from 2022-23 due to Tommy John surgery. He inked a $2M deal with the Phils last winter and has given them 54 1/3 frames between the rotation and bullpen, notching a tidy 2.65 earned run average with a big 26.1% strikeout rate. His 9% walk rate is a bit higher than average but only by a percentage point. His velocity is down nearly two miles per hour from peak levels, but Turnbull looked impressive when healthy and could find the first multi-year deal of his career if he finishes on a healthy note. He’s on a rehab assignment right now and could factor into the postseason pitching plans.

Fourth/Fifth Starters

Chris Flexen (30)

Flexen has been on a good run since late August, logging a sub-4.00 ERA in his past eight trips to the bump. That’s still only dropped him to a 4.95 mark on the season overall. He’s cleared 160 innings with below-average strikeout and grounder rates while yielding too many homers. It’s not a great profile, but he’s having a much better season than he did in 2023, when he landed a $1.75M guarantee from the White Sox in free agency. Perhaps they’ll give him a raise and keep him for a similar role in 2025. If not, Flexen could slot into the back of a rebuilding club’s rotation on a cheap one-year pact.

Michael Lorenzen (33)

Lorenzen is in his third year as a starter and has signed three one-year deals in his previous trips through free agency. This year’s 3.37 ERA is his best out of a rotation, but his middling strikeout and walk rates (17.8% and 11.4%), coupled with his age, are going to limit interest to an extent. He could still land a two-year deal, and even if he takes another one-year pact, he should still get a raise on this year’s $4M guarantee.

Frankie Montas (32)

Montas was dominant for the 2021 A’s and has been mediocre since, due in no small part to shoulder surgery that wiped out nearly all of his 2023 season. His one-year deal with the Reds (who eventually traded him to the Brewers) has produced lackluster results. Montas’ 4.85 ERA isn’t much to look at, but he’s at least proven to be healthy (29 starts, 146 2/3 innings). He’s also seen a velocity spike and uptick in swinging strikes since being traded to Milwaukee, though it still feels like he’s probably looking at another one-year deal.

Martin Perez (34)

Perez is eating frames one five-inning start at a time. He posted bleak numbers with the Pirates but has flourished since a trade to the Padres, for whom he’s made nine starts and notched a 2.61 ERA. Perez’s strikeout and walk rates have improved as San Diego more than doubled his curveball usage, though he still misses fewer bats than average. He’s a durable fifth starter who’ll likely land another one-year pact in free agency.

Joe Ross (32)

Ross missed the 2022-23 seasons due to injury but returned to the majors with Milwaukee this season and has turned in a 3.93 ERA in 71 frames. He’s split his time between the rotation and bullpen, but he showed well as a starter early in the season. He’s throwing harder than ever and still just 31 years old. His injury history probably limits him to one-year offers, but he’s a sneaky candidate to plug into a rotation on an incentive-laden deal.

Jose Urena (33)

Urena rode a minor league deal to a season-long spot on the Rangers’ staff. He’s pitched in 33 games, nine of them starts, and logged a 3.80 ERA despite a bottom-of-the-barrel 15.1% strikeout rate. He doesn’t have great command, but Urena throws hard and racks up grounders. This is his first season with an ERA under 5.00 since 2018. He could land a small one-year deal as a fifth starter or swingman.

Trevor Williams (33)

Williams was brilliant in 11 starts before a forearm strain cost him more than three months. He returned last week with five one-run innings against the Cubs. Williams has a 2.19 ERA on the year, but teams will take that with a grain of salt, given that it’s accompanied by an average strikeout rate (22.3%) and a heater that sits at 89 mph. He posted a 4.54 ERA overall in his two seasons as a National. This year’s showing might get him

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