Has A’ja Wilson taken the lead over Napheesa Collier in WNBA MVP race?

Entering the final week of the regular season, several WNBA awards remain in the balance. Perhaps no race is as tightly contested as the one for Most Valuable Player, with reigning MVP A’ja Wilson seeking her fourth trophy in eight seasons while Napheesa Collier is chasing her first. The Athletic’s WNBA writers Ben Pickman and Sabreena Merchant evaluate the state of the race and debate the winner of the award.

Sabreena Merchant: Before Collier went down with an ankle injury in Minnesota’s 53-point win over Las Vegas on Aug. 2, the Lynx star seemed to have wrapped up the MVP award, even with a month left in the season. Collier was having a dominant season as the best player on the WNBA’s best team, leading the league in scoring and plus-minus.

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But a lot has happened since.

Ben Pickman: That’s an understatement. The Aces haven’t lost since the historic drubbing, becoming the eighth team in WNBA history to win 13 straight games, as they have moved from borderline playoff team to one of the title favorites. Key to their success has been Wilson, who forcefully reasserted herself in the WNBA MVP discussion.

Entering the final week of the season, what are you thinking about this race?

Merchant: Collier was the favorite for so long, and Minnesota has been head and shoulders above the rest of the league. Before she got hurt, the Lynx were 22-4 when Collier played. She was the WNBA’s leading scorer while shooting 53.7 percent from the field, top five in steals and top five in blocks. Minnesota had a plus-15 net rating, and Collier had the team’s best individual on-court rating at plus-18.

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Pickman: Plus, as it relates to this head-to-head debate, Minnesota had topped Las Vegas three times over that span, with its July 25 and Aug. 2 wins coming by 31 points and 53 points. Collier thoroughly outplayed Wilson in both games.

Merchant: Of course, the season didn’t end on Aug. 2, and Collier has now missed more games than any MVP winner in league history. (Admittedly, this has been the longest season in WNBA history.) And the counting stats — and many advanced stats — are no longer in Collier’s favor.

Pickman: Wilson leads the league in 20-point and 30-point double-doubles, points and blocks per game. And it’s hard to overlook what happened last Thursday night, when Wilson outplayed Collier in a convincing Las Vegas win. The three-time MVP scored 31 points in the victory, reaching the 30-point mark for a league-leading 12th time.

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Merchant: More than any season for me, this vote comes down to how you define value. At the moment, I’m leaning toward Collier because she elevated her team to greatness this season. She has been awesome individually and remarkably efficient; she is the only WNBA player with a top-five usage percentage and top-five true-shooting percentage. Collier also gave Minnesota enough of a cushion through the first two-thirds of the season that the Lynx were able to take their foot off the gas over the last month.

It isn’t Collier’s fault that the Lynx have a competent roster around her and were able to win games in her absence. Even if they strung together some victories without her, they are historically excellent with her on the court. Minnesota’s full-season net rating of plus-12.5 is on par with what the Aces have posted (plus-13.2) during their 13-game winning streak. She still has the best plus-minus of any player in the league, which is a clear indicator of her ability to add value to her team.

Pickman: Yet at the same time, the Lynx went 7-3 without Collier, still looking like one of the WNBA’s elites even without their star forward. Entering the final week of the season, I’m leaning toward Wilson, who in my mind is still the league’s best player. She can exhibit an unmatched dominance — re-watch her 30-point, 20-rebound game against the Connecticut Sun for Exhibit A — and her plus-25.6 on-off net rating is best in the league. Just imagine where they would be without her. Las Vegas’ record isn’t as good as Minnesota’s, but it isn’t far behind.

Merchant: Again, we’re talking about how to interpret the award. Leading a team to the league’s best offense and best defense is pretty valuable, as is going wire to wire with the WNBA’s best record. Everyone on the Lynx credits Collier with creating an environment for a winning culture.

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The idea that Collier is being punished for her team’s success seems counterintuitive. On paper, the Aces aren’t lacking in talent. Las Vegas’ most used lineup has four of Team USA’s Olympians from 2024. The fact that Collier’s team can perform at a higher level with her on the court (plus-16.8 versus plus-9.7 for Wilson) is a credit to Collier’s value.

Pickman: But Wilson is still first in win shares, which is a reflection of her value as well. The Aces are also 13-2 in clutch games, with Wilson having a 41.7 net rating in such situations. The Lynx, meanwhile, are 6-5, and Collier has a plus-10.5 net rating.

Let’s round out this debate with the two other candidates who aren’t tracking far behind these two: the Phoenix Mercury’s Alyssa Thomas and the Atlanta Dream’s Allisha Gray.

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Merchant: Thomas is on pace to be the first WNBA player to average 15 points, nine assists and nine rebounds. She has seven triple-doubles, and the Mercury are undefeated in those games. Her ability to run point forward has allowed Phoenix to be versatile with its lineups, developing a new identity after returning only two players, and she recently surpassed Caitlin Clark to break the WNBA’s single-season assists record.

Pickman: And if we’re looking for cross-league notes, Thomas can become the first player in WNBA history to average at least 15 points, nine rebounds, nine assists and one steal while shooting 50 percent from the field. Only Magic Johnson and Nikola Jokic have done that.

Gray recently became the first guard in league history to win three Player of the Month awards, after averaging 19.4 points on nearly 50 percent shooting from the field in August. She’s also led the Dream to a potential top-two seed, depending on how this week plays out.

Merchant: All due respect to Thomas and Gray, but this is a two-player race. And both are deserving. Whether you value the peak contributions from each player or the accumulation of all of their stats, Collier and Wilson each have made an argument for taking home this trophy.

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This article originally appeared in The Athletic.

Minnesota Lynx, Las Vegas Aces, WNBA

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