Head-to-Head and Prediction for Cincinnati Open 2025

World No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz is eyeing a perfect buildup to the US Open, and his campaign at the 2025 Cincinnati Open has been promising so far. The Spaniard, seeded second, will face Italy’s Luca Nardi in the fourth round after posting wins over Damir Džumhur and Hamad Medjedovic.

Meanwhile, Nardi, who advanced from the qualifiers with wins over Aiden Mayo and Alexander Blockx, has also enjoyed an impressive run in the main draw. The Italian overcame Thiago Tirante, stunned 24th seed Denis Shapovalov, and progressed to the fourth round of a Masters 1000 event for only the second time in his career after Jakub Menšík retired during their match.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Luca Nardi Match Details

Date: August 13, 2025
Tournament: Cincinnati Open
Round: Round of 16
Venue: Lindner Family Tennis Center, Mason, Ohio
Category: Masters 1000
Surface: Outdoor hard
Live telecast: Tennis Channel, Fubo, ESPN+, Sky Sports

Alcaraz vs Nardi Head-to-Head

The two are yet to develop a rivalry on tour, having faced each other only once before. Their only meeting came at the ATP 500 event in Doha, where Nardi put up a strong fight but Alcaraz ultimately triumphed 6-1, 4-6, 6-3.

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Alcaraz vs Nardi Prediction

Alcaraz has reaffirmed his status as one of the dominant forces on tour in 2025. His impressive season includes titles in Rotterdam, Monte Carlo, the Italian Open, the Queen’s Club Championships, and a Grand Slam triumph at the French Open.

The 22-year-old has also enjoyed deep runs at several other marquee events, including the Australian Open, Qatar Open, Indian Wells, Barcelona, and Wimbledon. Alcaraz heads into his fourth-round clash in Cincinnati boasting a phenomenal 50-6 win-loss record and will be determined to advance further in one of the key tournaments leading up to the US Open.

Forehand Rollercoaster🎢🎾@carlosalcaraz’s Forehand #ShotQuality was a wild ride, shifting set by set 📈📉📈#ShotQuality is calculated in real-time by analysing each shot’s speed, spin, depth, width, and the impact it has on the opponent#TennisInsights | @atptour |… pic.twitter.com/0YRYWRZDqF

— Tennis Insights (@tennis_insights) February 19, 2025

Nardi, meanwhile, is still searching for his breakthrough this season, with his best result being a quarterfinal appearance at the Dubai Duty Free Championships, along with fourth-round finishes in Auckland and now, at least, in Cincinnati. The Italian will need to put his best foot forward against Alcaraz, as he enters the clash with a modest 8-10 win-loss record.

While both players have displayed strength on serve, Alcaraz holds a commanding edge, winning 84% of his service games compared to Nardi’s 70%. The Spaniard also leads in return points won, with 42% to the Italian’s 34%.

Further boosting Alcaraz’s edge is his impressive 77.86% career win rate on hard courts, well ahead of Nardi’s 60%. Considering his seeding, current form, and overall record, the Spaniard enters the contest with a significant advantage, one that could well be evident when he takes on Nardi next.

Pick: Alcaraz to win in straights sets.