how Ferrari can outperform Mercedes and Red Bull in the constructors’ championship

Mercedes, Ferrari, and Red Bull: three of the most prominent and highly competitive Formula 1 teams currently battling for the second position in the 2025 constructors’ championship. With Red Bull back in the battle for the drivers’ championship through Max Verstappen’s dominant performance in the last two rounds and the Woking-based team asserting their early advantage, the fight for second place has become a compelling and closely contested battle. To realistically aim for the runner-up spot behind the dominant Woking squad, each team will need to extract the absolute maximum performance from their cars by exploiting the unique characteristics and technical demands of every circuit on the calendar. Among these three contenders, the German team, Mercedes, appears slightly favored due to several technical and strategic reasons that will be explained in detail in this analysis.

Adapting to each circuit is absolutely crucialThe current point margin in the constructors’ championship is remarkably narrow, with Mercedes leading Ferrari by only four points, while Red Bull sits 18 points behind. The battle is incredibly tight and every race could significantly affect the standings as the season progresses. At the Azerbaijan Grand Prix in Baku, the team led by Toto Wolff experienced a minor setback in qualifying, making a rare mistake that briefly disrupted their rhythm. However, the race itself once again demonstrated the reliability, speed, and overall versatility of the Mercedes W16, a car known for being both exceptionally fast and exceptionally gentle on its Pirelli tires in a specific set of conditions.

When comparing the Mercedes package with Red Bull’s car developed in Milton Keynes, the prospects for adaptation to the remaining seven races in the 2025 season appear fairly balanced. Both teams have shown the capacity to fine-tune their cars to a wide range of circuits, but subtle differences in setup philosophy and tire management may ultimately determine who gains the upper hand in the constructors’ fight.

The Mercedes W16 stands out for its aerodynamic efficiency, particularly on circuits with medium-to-high downforce requirements, where the car can maximize speed through corners without overloading the tires. However, this advantage comes with a caveat: the W16 requires moderate and controlled temperatures to fully exploit tire performance. This characteristic may prove challenging at venues like the Singapore Grand Prix, the Qatar Grand Prix, and the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, where the notoriously high ambient temperatures favor teams capable of maintaining a stable and consistent race pace throughout the event. In contrast, circuits such as the Mexican Grand Prix in Mexico City and the Las Vegas Grand Prix, with their combination of long straights and generally milder temperatures, may provide a more favorable environment for the Mercedes W16 to capitalize on its strengths.

In particular, Mexico City offers a compelling test of car performance due to the stop-and-go nature of the circuit combined with the long final straight, which is ideal for exploiting the W16’s traction capabilities and top-end speed. However, much will depend on the thermal management of the power unit: opening the air intakes to dissipate excessive heat inevitably reduces aerodynamic efficiency, requiring teams to find the perfect compromise between cooling and overall performance.

At the United States Grand Prix, which will be held at the challenging Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas, the competition is expected to be incredibly close. Red Bull’s RB21 could enjoy a tangible advantage in sectors one and three, where aerodynamic performance is particularly decisive. Recent technical updates have further enhanced the RB21’s competitiveness, and the Milton Keynes team will be counting on Yuki Tsunoda to provide additional support. However, while Max Verstappen’s extraordinary talent can often compensate for minor car deficiencies, it may not be sufficient to completely contain the performance advantage that Mercedes could extract, particularly when Kimi Antonelli and George Russell form a balanced driver pairing capable of consistent points scoring.

Rear-end stability and tire management remain decisive factorsIn the ongoing duel with Ferrari, Mercedes can focus on one of its most reliable strengths: consistency across race weekends. Identifying a single, unequivocal performance advantage for the Ferrari SF-25 is complex, as the Italian car tends to display fluctuating performance that is heavily influenced by technical development and adjustments made over the course of a race weekend. Ferrari consistently demonstrates excellent preparation in the simulator, enabling Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton to enter each event with a detailed understanding of the expected behavior of the car. However, translating this theoretical preparation into optimal on-track performance often proves challenging, particularly when track conditions evolve unexpectedly.

Nevertheless, Ferrari may gain a competitive advantage through the three Sprint Race weekends scheduled in the remaining seven events. Sprint Race weekends place a premium on initial setup, as teams have fewer free practice sessions to fine-tune the car. In this context, Ferrari’s preparation capabilities could allow the team to extract more immediate performance from the SF-25 at the start of the weekend, potentially narrowing the gap to Mercedes and Red Bull in qualifying and the sprint races themselves.

The most significant difference between the Mercedes W16 and the Ferrari SF-25 lies in rear-end stability and tire management. Both teams have undertaken revisions to the rear double-wishbone geometry to improve handling and traction, yet the Brackley-based Mercedes team opted to revert certain changes after detecting instability caused by a miscalibrated roll center. This adjustment reflects Mercedes’ methodical approach to ensuring car stability and predictable behavior under various loads, particularly in cornering and under braking.

In contrast, Ferrari introduced technical changes from the Belgian Grand Prix that initially produced measurable benefits but appeared to struggle in finding the car’s optimal operating point. The traction difficulties observed during the Azerbaijan Grand Prix in Baku are a clear illustration of these ongoing challenges. Tire requirements also differ sharply between the two teams: the SF-25 tends to underperform in cooler conditions, whereas the W16 thrives in stiffer, more demanding conditions, which will be advantageous in venues such as the United States Grand Prix in Texas and the Las Vegas Grand Prix.

In addition to potentially capitalizing on the three remaining Sprint Races, Ferrari should be better prepared for the Singapore Grand Prix, both due to the circuit layout and the high temperatures typically experienced during the event. Success in Singapore will require the team to identify the perfect technical compromise, balancing aerodynamic efficiency, tire preservation, and power unit thermal management to avoid a fragile setup that limits overall performance.

The remaining races of the 2025 Formula 1 season promise a fascinating evolution in the constructors’ championship. Teams must carefully manage their cars, their drivers—Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton for Ferrari, George Russell and Kimi Antonelli for Mercedes, Max Verstappen and Yuki Tsunoda for Red Bull—and their strategic approach to each weekend to maximize points. Every single detail, from tire degradation to power unit efficiency, will influence who ultimately claims second place in this intensely competitive battle. The championship standings remain fluid, and as teams continue to adapt to track-specific challenges, it will be intriguing to see whether Ferrari can successfully bridge the performance gap and challenge Mercedes and Red Bull for the runner-up position. Only time, strategic ingenuity, and flawless execution across the remaining circuits will reveal how this closely contested fight will unfold.

The 2025 Formula 1 season continues to be shaped by technical innovation, strategic decisions, and driver skill. Ferrari’s opportunity to compete at the top level in the constructors’ championship depends not only on maximizing the performance of the SF-25 but also on minimizing mistakes, optimizing tire and power unit management, and capitalizing on every track-specific advantage. Mercedes, with its reliable and highly adaptable W16, and Red Bull, with its upgraded RB21, will not make it easy. This high-stakes battle underscores the importance of preparation, adaptability, and the ability to extract performance under diverse conditions. As the season progresses, fans can expect a thrilling series of races where every point, every tire strategy, and every technical adjustment could determine who finishes second in the constructors’ championship, just behind the Woking-based team that has already secured the title.

Sep 29, 2025David Carter

Let other Scuderia Fans know about us