Last Friday, the Dallas Wings announced their hiring of Curt Miller (who was the Los Angeles Sparks’ head coach before “mutually parting ways” with them after the 2024 season) as their new Executive Vice President of Basketball Operations and General Manager.
While this marks an intriguing change for the Wings’ front office, basketball fans found it interesting how Miller’s odds of drafting Paige Bueckers shifted when going from the Sparks to the Wings.
Given that the Sparks had the WNBA’s worst record in 2024, this means they should have the best chances to secure the No. 1 pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft (which is expected to be Bueckers), correct?
Not quite.
The 2025 WNBA Draft Lottery takes place on November 17 at 5 pm ET. Four teams (Sparks, the Wings, the Chicago Sky, and the Washington Mystics) are participating, which means all four could conceivably land the No. 1 pick.
Here are the percent odds that each franchise will get the draft’s top pick, according to Tankathon:
Los Angeles Sparks: 44.2%
Dallas Wings: 27.6%
Chicago Sky: 17.8%
Washington Mystics: 10.4%
But that’s not the entire story.
On February 11, 2023, the Dallas Wings announced that they had agreed to send Marina Mabrey to the Chicago Sky as part of a four-team trade.
As part of the deal, the Wings received the rights to swap their 2025 WNBA Draft 1st Round Picks with Chicago.
The Wings will certainly exercise this option if the Sky receive a higher draft pick than them during Sunday’s lottery.
Therefore, combining both their and the Sky’s chances of securing the No. 1 pick, Dallas’ chances of getting that prized pick (and Bueckers if they want her) is actually 45.4% — which is 1.2% better than that of Los Angeles.
Paige Bueckers playing basketball is a beautiful thing pic.twitter.com/80UWsIbHEf
— UConn Women’s Basketball (@UConnWBB) November 12, 2024
This is why both Miller and his Wings franchise have the Sky to thank for being in prime position to secure Bueckers during the 2025 WNBA Draft, which will take place in April.
Although the beautiful thing about Sunday’s lottery is that anything can happen among these four teams — except (presumably) the Sky keeping the No. 1 pick if they get it.
