Injury-stricken Fever at crossroads: Should Indiana continue push toward WNBA playoffs or focus on the future?

The Indiana Fever announced Tuesday that veteran guard Sophie Cunningham will be out for the remainder of the season due to a knee injury that occurred during the team’s historic comeback victory over the Connecticut Sun on Sunday. Per the Indianapolis Star, Cunningham tore her MCL. 

Cunningham is the third Fever player to suffer a season-ending injury this month, joining fellow guards Aari McDonald (broken foot) and Sydney Colson (torn ACL). The Fever also remain without star guard Caitlin Clark, who has not played since July 15 due to a right groin injury and does not have a timetable for a return. 

With less than a month remaining in the regular season, the Fever sit in sixth place in the standings, with a 2½-game lead on the ninth-place Los Angeles Sparks. While that is a fairly comfortable cushion, they do have the hardest remaining schedule — highlighted by three matchups against the league-leading Minnesota Lynx — with an average opponent winning percentage of .593. 

The Fever entered the season with championship expectations, but now have their work cut out for them just to hold on to a playoff spot. Which begs the question: should the Fever still want to make the postseason, or would they be better off getting another lottery pick? 

Ahead of the stretch run, let’s examine the pros and cons of each path. 

Making the playoffs

Pro: Give yourself a chance 

Losing Cunningham, McDonald and Colson is a significant blow to the Fever’s playoff hopes. Cunningham was their best 3-point shooter this season, and had been making an absurd 50% of her 3s since the All-Star break. McDonald was one of their best perimeter defenders and allowed them to maintain their style of play without Clark on the floor. And while Colson likely wasn’t going to play much in the postseason, she was a reliable veteran presence. 

Can the Fever still win a title this season? Probably not. Will anyone be signing up to play them if Clark is healthy? Probably not. 

Clark at her best is one of the biggest difference-makers in the league. As much as Clark has struggled this season, the Fever are still 8-5 when she plays and have a plus-9.1 net rating when she’s on the floor. If Clark is healthy come playoff time, the Fever will at least have a chance — especially with the way Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell are playing. Those three together have a plus-10.5 net rating. 

Con: Significantly worse draft pick

Because of the WNBA’s two-year aggregate lottery system, the Fever are not going to have great odds at the No. 1 pick if they fall into the lottery. Most years, though, the difference in draft slot between a team at the back half of the lottery and one that snuck into one of the final playoff spots would not be significant. 

This year, however, there are two expansion franchises joining the mix, the Toronto Tempo and Portland Fire. Assuming the league follows the same protocol as last year when the Golden State Valkyries arrived, the Tempo and Fire will be slotted into the 2026 draft after the lottery and before the playoff teams. 

Thus, if the Fever are in the lottery, the worst they can pick is fifth, but if they make the playoffs the best they can pick is eighth. That’s a big difference, even before you factor in the possibility of moving up in the lottery or getting the No. 6 or 7 seed in the playoffs. If the season ended today, the Fever would pick 10th. 

Pro: More playoff experience for core

The Fever made the playoffs last season for the first time since 2016, but were swept in the first round by the Connecticut Sun. Due to the WNBA’s best-of-three first-round, that meant Clark and Co.’s first postseason experience lasted just two games — both of which were on the road. 

Two games are nothing in the grand scheme of things, and the Fever’s young core could really use another playoff experience. Even if the Fever were to be eliminated in the first round again, a second trip to the playoffs would be beneficial down the line when they are ready to compete for a title. 

Con: Clark is at risk of further injury

Clark has been limited to 13 games during her frustrating sophomore season due to three different soft tissue injuries. She hasn’t played since July 15 due to a right groin issue and still does not have a return timeline. 

“It’s day-to-day right now, we’re putting no timetable on it,” Fever coach Stephanie White said earlier this month. “[She is] going through the rehab process, and then we want to reintegrate her from a strength and conditioning standpoint and then get her back to basketball activities. So we’re taking it one day at a time, really slow rolling it, slow playing it this time… The most important thing for us is Caitlin’s long-term health and getting her back to 100% before we put her back on the floor.” 

The team has been extremely cautious with Clark during this latest spell on the sideline, but it’s hard to imagine a scenario where she remains out during the playoffs. There would be a risk of re-injury in that scenario, especially if she’s not all the way back to 100% come playoff time. 

Lottery trip

Pro: Chance at the No. 1 pick

As previously noted, if the Fever are in the lottery, they will not have the best odds due to the league’s two-year aggregate system. At the very least, they will be behind the Dallas Wings, Chicago Sky (who owe the Lynx their pick) and Connecticut Sun (who owe the Sky a pick swap). 

Anything can happen if you get yourself in the mix, though. Just ask the Dallas Mavericks. 

In any case, even if the Fever didn’t get the No. 1 pick for the third time in four years, getting a top-five pick would represent an opportunity to add a major talent to their young core. The 2026 draft class features a number of big names, including Azzi Fudd and Flau’jae Johnson, both of whom would be great fits. 

Con: Wasted season

There’s no getting around the fact that this would be a lost season for the Fever if they miss out on the playoffs. 

After Clark helped end the playoff drought as a rookie, the organization went all-in this offseason. The front office was overhauled, White was hired as coach and the roster was revamped around Clark, Boston and Mitchell. During training camp, the players were open about their goals to compete for a championship. 

Even acknowledging the mitigating circumstances — Bonner quitting on the team, a parade of injuries — missing the playoffs after all of that effort and bravado would be a disaster. Clark’s limited playing time only makes it worse. It’s challenging to make peripheral roster decisions on which players should return when the coaches and front office haven’t gotten a real look at how they fit alongside Clark. 

Pro: Protect Clark from further injury

During training camp, Clark dealt with left quad tightness and sat out of the team’s first preseason game against the Washington Mystics on May 3. A day later, she was in action for their second preseason game versus the Brazilian national team at Carver-Hawkeye Arena on Iowa’s campus. 

There was no chance Clark was going to miss that occasion, but in retrospect, she probably should not have played. There’s no doubt that if the game were anywhere else, she would have sat out. Did playing at Iowa lead directly to her left quad strain three weeks later against the New York Liberty? It’s impossible to say for sure, but it definitely didn’t help. 

In retrospect, Clark probably hasn’t been fully healthy at any point this season. She hasn’t played more than five games in a row and has been out for over a month with her most recent groin injury. If the Fever decided they were OK with a lottery appearance and shut her down for the remainder of the season, that would be for the best for her long-term health. 

Con: How do free agents react?

The only players not on rookie scale deals who are under contract for 2026 are Kalani Brown and Lexie Brown. Every other veteran lined things up so that their free agency would coincide with a new collective bargaining agreement that is expected to bring major pay raises.  

The Fever will be vying for free agents with every other team, and everyone will have plenty of cap space and roster spots. No one knows exactly how this winter is going to go — or even when free agency will take place, given the ongoing labor battle — but free agent negotiations will be different than normal. 

In the event the Fever fail to make the playoffs this season, it’s fair to wonder how that will affect their free agent pitches. Will players see them as a winning franchise or a team capable of contending when they haven’t won a single playoff game since 2015? Even if missing the playoffs wouldn’t hurt the Fever in free agent talks, it certainly wouldn’t help them.