Is It Time To Extend Baker Mayfield’s Contract?

In a weekly column every Thursday on PewterReport.com, two Pewter Reporters will debate a topic with opposing viewpoints. Which Pewter Reporter wins the debate? You get to decide in the comments section below.

This week’s topic: Is It Time To Extend Baker Mayfield’s Contract?

Point: If The Bucs Can Get “Bargain” Baker Mayfield, Then Yes

By Scott Reynolds

Baker Mayfield currently ranks 19th among the highest-paid quarterbacks in the NFL, averaging $33.33 million per year courtesy of the three-year, $100 million extension he signed after the 2023 season. But in the case of quarterback contracts, it should be noted that Dallas’ Dak Prescott tops the list with an average of $60 million, Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa ranks sixth with an average of $53.1 million, Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson ranks 13th with $46 million, and Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, who is better than any of those QBs, ranks 15th, averaging $45 million per year.

At the time he signed his contract extension, Mayfield was still the third-lowest paid QB in the NFC South behind New Orleans’ Derek Carr, who averaged $37.5 million, and Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins, who averaged $45 million per year. Yet Mayfield has been the best quarterback in the division since the 2023 season, so he’s been underpaid as a result.

I’m usually in favor of letting players play out their contract year, as I think it can bring out the best in a player. That was the case with Antoine Winfield Jr.’s All-Pro season in 2023 and Mike Evans’ Pro Bowl season that same year. I wish Tampa Bay had let cornerback Zyon McCollum play out his contract year rather than give him an early extension because he seriously underwhelmed once he got paid.

If Mayfield plays out his contract year in 2026 and balls out in Zac Robinson’s offense, putting up numbers similar to what he did in 2024 with Liam Coen with 41 touchdowns, 4,500 passing yards and completing 71.4% of his passes, I think he could cash in on a huge extension worth $50 million per season – or more. That would vault Mayfield up to No. 12 on the current highest-paid QB list behind Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts, who averages $51 million per year.

Mayfield could even make the argument that he’s better than Tagovailoa, and seek $54 million per year. That would put him sixth in the league behind Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence, who is making $55 million per year. Is Mayfield worth that much? That’s debatable, but I bet he could fetch that amount on the open free agent market because he’s a two-time Pro Bowler and good, proven quarterbacks are hard to find in the NFL.

So if I’m the Bucs and I’m staring at the possibility of having to give Mayfield a $20 million per year raise in 2027, I’m going to try to split the difference now and offer him a three-year extension at $43 million per year to see if he’ll take it. Don’t think Mayfield is worth $43 million per year? Well, at $43 million, Mayfield would only move up three spots to 16th in the league behind Mahomes and ahead of L.A.’s Matthew Stafford ($40 million), Las Vegas’ Geno Smith ($37.5 million) and Seattle’s Sam Darnold ($33.5 million). That seems quite fair.

Think what you want about Mayfield, but he’s certainly a top 15 quarterback in the league. And extending him at $43 million would be a bargain for the Bucs – as well as a significant raise for the QB. Perhaps an extra $30 million combined over three years would tempt Mayfield to take the extension now rather than risking a serious injury or a down season in 2026 that could negatively impact his market value. If he’s game, I’m pulling the trigger if I’m general manager Jason Licht and assistant G.M. Mike Greenberg.

Counterpoint: The Bucs Won’t Get A Bargain – And Should Wait

By Josh Queipo

Scott Reynolds has suggested an extension at $43 million per year. That’s a nice thought, but Reynolds himself noted it would be a bargain for the Bucs. A bargain for the Bucs isn’t an attractive proposition for Mayfield. So why would he do it? He’s going to pocket $40 million this year already.

The 2026 franchise tag for quarterbacks is more than $47 million dollars. That number has risen about 10% per year on average. That means there is a good chance that it will be around $52 million in 2027. That’s close to the new guaranteed money he would get on the proposed extension.

That deal isn’t one Mayfield and his team are likely to accept because of the lack of upside. His price tag right now is $50 million per year, and likely over four years. That’s $200 million and a minimum commitment of two additional years and $100 million of guaranteed money beyond his current contract. That’s a lot of risk for a quarterback coming off of a difficult season marred by injury.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by: USA Today

If Mayfield balls out this year, his price tag jumps to $55-57 million per year. That’s $28 million (over four years) higher than his current price tag. There’s some cost risk there, but not a lot. But if the Bucs extend now and the injuries continue to pile up, or Mayfield doesn’t regain his 2024 form, they have taken on at least $50 million of guaranteed money (above the franchise tag) that they may regret. That trade off leans more to the risk side than the reward side in my opinion.

There is also the consideration of how limited resources are allocated. A realistic extension of $200 million over four years creates an all-in deal of five years for $240 million. The cash flows on that would be right around $50 million in 2026. That’s an extra $10 million over what the Bucs were set to pay him. That $10 million would come out of the pool of roughly $50 million they have to spend on internal and external free agents this year.

With the plethora of needs the team would like to address, is it smart to take 25% of their financial resources and put it towards the quarterback already under contract? I’d argue it is not. With no real risk of losing Mayfield after this year because of the tag, and the very real need to dedicate all available financial resources to other positions, there is no real impetus to extend Baker Mayfield right now.