Is the New York Liberty’s title defense going to be done after Game 3 against the Phoenix Mercury?

Friday night delivers the third Game 3 of the first-round of the 2025 WNBA playoffs, with the No. 4-seed Phoenix Mercury hosting the No. 5-seed and defending champion New York Liberty.

In the first two games of this series, the road team prevailed, with New York outgunning Phoenix in overtime of Game 1 before the Mercury responded in Game 2 with a historic blowout win over the Liberty in Brooklyn. Now, the series returns to Phoenix for the finale, with tip off scheduled for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2.

But more than the site, the state and status of Breanna Stewart could most influence the outcome of Game 3.

Despite spraining her left MCL in overtime of Game 1, Stewart suited up in Game 2, wearing a knee brace during her 20 minutes of action. After she finished with 18 points, six boards, four assists and two steals in Game 1, with the Liberty outscoring the Mercury by a game-best 16 points in her minutes, she scored six points on six shots in Game 2, grabbing only two boards and coughing up three turnovers.

Stewart, unsurprisingly, did not make excuses, suggesting the Liberty were “embarrassed,” and that, while her knee was fine, her play was not, saying after Game 2, “I just wasn’t where I wanted to be today. And I have 48 hours to figure it out.”

If she doesn’t, the Liberty’s season might be over, with their championship defense crumbling into cries of “what could have been.”

Because, for as stacked as New York’s roster is, the Liberty remain incredibly dependent on Stewart. Stewie played in 31 games this season, with the Liberty going 22-9 in those contests. Without her, New York was 5-8. No, it’s not that simple, as New York also navigated other absences that coincided with the time that Stewie missed. But, it also kind of is that simple. On offense, she’s a three-level scoring threat who demands the constant attention of the defense, despite another down shooting season from 3. Defensively, she’s a multi-positional monster who erases mistakes. She makes all of her teammates’ jobs easier, allowing them flourish as the best versions of themselves rather than flounder as they try to force things.

If Stewart is again limited, New York might be left hoping for outlier excellence from another player. Fortunately, they have more than a few capable candidates. As she reminded in Game 1, Natasha Cloud is a playoff riser, who, back in Phoenix, could again access that extra revenge factor in front of the X Factor.

If Sabrina Ionescu wakes up, the Liberty also will have a better chance of bidding the Mercury, “Night, night.” Sab is shooting 29 percent from the field and 20 percent from 3 in the first round. The W’s best free throw shooter is even shooting less than 43 percent from the line, having missed four freebies in Game 2. For as bad as those offensive numbers are, Ionescu’s defense has even been more disastrous, as the Mercury have repeatedly targeted her, an issue that Beckett Harrison flagged before Game 2 and one that Josh Felton broke down in greater detail.

A 3-point explosion in Game 3, however, would make up for all of Sabrina’s subpar play. In last year’s semifinals, after an ugly Game 4 against the Las Vegas Aces, Ionescu swished five triples to power the Liberty past their rivals. A repeat performance would be welcome.

The Mercury have all the momentum

Following their resounding Game 2 win, the only thing that should be troubling the Mercury is that they are having to play Game 3 at all.

Phoenix certainly believes that this should have been a two-game sweep. Despite shooting poorly in Game 1, the Mercury were a missed Alyssa Thomas jumper away from escaping with a win in regulation. And even after their Game 2 win, Phoenix surely thinks they still have untapped offensive upside.

Across the two games, the Mercury have successfully generated 50 3-point attempts, yet have converted only 13, a 26 percent clip. During the regular season, Phoenix shot 34 percent from 3 as a team, and they also had 3-point shooting performances of 44.4 and 46.2 percent in two of their wins over New York.

If the Mercury maintain their top-notch defense in Game 3 while finally shooting to their standard, an evisceration of the defending champs could occur in the Valley.

No. 5-seed New York Liberty (1-1) vs. No. 4-seed Phoenix Mercury (1-1)