Key Highlights
During the second round of the playoffs, the Oklahoma City Thunder held a plus-5.3 net rating with Chet Holmgren on the floor and a minus-15.0 net rating when he was on the bench
The Thunder finished 27th in offensive rebounding rate last season, while Isaiah Hartenstein ranked in the 92nd percentile individually
Hartenstein was in the 70th percentile in assist rate among big men, per Cleaning the Glass
Aside from their top-three offense torpedoing into a crunched-up slog, the Oklahoma City Thunder’s playoff demise was headlined by an inability to stay float whenever Chet Holmgren sat. During their second-round, six-game defeat, they outscored the Dallas Mavericks by 21 points across Holmgren’s 216 minutes and were outscored by 21 points in 72 minutes without him (-20.3 net rating swing, per NBA.com).
So, once free agency commenced earlier this month, they sought to address that deficiency at backup 5 by landing Isaiah Hartenstein on a three-year, $87 million deal (team option for the third year). Yet Hartenstein’s hefty price tag and 2023-24 emergence — following many seasons of intriguing play in a smaller role — proved he’s far too good for merely that designation.
Occupying a starting gig for most of last season while sitting central to the New York Knicks’ success, his defense, playmaking, screening and rebounding established him among the league’s better centers. Of course, he is not superior to Holmgren, an ascending 22-year-old who appears imminently primed for stardom. But if afforded enough rope, the 26-year-old can help greatly remedy some of Oklahoma City’s other shortcomings, including rebounding, screening and three-point volume.
His arrival ensures the Thunder revel in 48 minutes of high-level center play. Rarely will one of Holmgren or Hartenstein not be on the floor. His arrival should also guarantee a spot in the starting five.
Either Luguentz Dort or Alex Caruso would come off the bench. Although Caruso is the better player, his injury history and Dort’s connection with the franchise will likely earn him the nod at shooting guard. The playoffs are the priority, so keeping Caruso upright must be the objective. There will be matchups where downsizing is preferred, but the baseline quintet ideally features Holmgren and Hartenstein together. It’s the easiest path to solving weak links that cropped up for the Thunder in certain regular season games and versus Dallas.
One of the factors defining Oklahoma City’s second-round foibles was its poor on-ball passing. This is a very good connective passing team, but with Dallas loading the strong-side and zoning up properly on the weak-side, it couldn’t flip the floor to exploit that tactic. Drive-and-kick is about spinning the defense into rotation and the Thunder failed to achieve that, partly because of their passing limitations.
Neither Shai Gilgeous-Alexander nor Jalen Williams had the gusto to weave passes around all the size the Mavericks threw their direction. Holmgren, for all his two-way exploits, is not a sturdy inside-the-arc operator who functions as a playmaking hub. Hartenstein does.
According to Cleaning the Glass, he placed in the 70th percentile in assist rate among bigs last season (12.7 percent) and his 7-foot-1 stature is a genuine tool. It allows him to see over the top and execute reads that the Thunder’s perimeter initiators often neglected in round two. They’ve missed this sort of route to pivot toward offensively. Hartenstein will present it.
Playing through him would require a shift away from Oklahoma City’s drive-and-kick, five-out approach. Even if the five-out ethos is continued, there would be an adjustment to give a non-spacing threat substantial responsibilities. The basis of its attack last season was emphasizing touches for dribble-pass-shoot dudes and surrounding them with capable drive-and-shoot cogs (Josh Giddey aside, hence his playoff benching and subsequent departure).
Hartenstein is a savvy facilitator with more off-the-dribble juice than assumed, yet he’s not an outside shooter or a driving big like Holmgren. Slotting him at center would move Holmgren to the 4 and rearrange his offensive usage and placement. Long-term, the goal is presumably to keep Holmgren at center, but letting him develop his mismatch scoring against 4s rather than 5s — given his strength deficit — could work in the interim, too.
Spotlighting a 7-footer with playmaking verve may help increase the Thunder’s long range volume. Despite being third in three-point percentage, they were just 21st in three-point rate. There was cumbersome hesitancy with their shooters. Many of them were wired to drive off the catch rather than firing — namely, Williams and Aaron Wiggins — that Dallas recognized and targeted. The percentages portrayed them as an elite shooting group, while the film suggested otherwise.
A tweak in mindset is necessary. Hartenstein’s passing ability and comfort flipping the court at his size should be boons, but they aren’t wholesale solutions. The shooters have to embrace bombing away more regularly; their numbers are too good for otherwise.
His distributing nonetheless provides a different, welcomed wrinkle. Last year’s five-out alignment masked playmaking deficiencies. Hartenstein isn’t just a tall guy with a bit of deft touch. He’s a legit passer in various forms. Oklahoma City sports shrewd cutters. Tap into that more. Encourage them to cut and receive feeds from Hartenstein rather than solely to spark threes or snare passes from slashing ball-handlers.
It also dabbled with dunker spot usage in the playoffs. Hartenstein is an excellent dump-off passer. Playing him at the 5 and Holmgren as a 4 periodically lurking in the short corners might diversify the offense. Perhaps, his addition doesn’t alter the three-point volume as much as it creates more chances around the basket (16th in rim frequency during the regular season, 13th in the playoffs). Either occurrence sounds lucrative.
Hartenstein isn’t a Nikola Jokic-level orchestrator. Gilgeous-Alexander is among the NBA’s chief engines. He, along with Williams, will dominate the action. There is going to plenty of time Hartenstein operates off the ball. It’s another adjustment that (rightfully) granting him significant minutes will prompt: crafting smooth offense with a non-shooting center playing heavy minutes. Even if he gets back to experimenting a bit as a stretch big, actually garnering defensive attention takes time and results (he’s 27-of-87, 31 percent in six seasons).
But the lack of shooting doesn’t render him an off-ball liability. Routinely finding space in and out of the paint, he’s an alert mover. Whether it’s generating open shots for himself or others, there are consequences of ignoring him or extending him room/angles to use. The Knicks occasionally slotted him in the opposite corner, which baited defenses into sagging off before the offense flung the ball his way and initiated dribble handoffs. I especially like this for Oklahoma City if Isaiah Joe is the recipient.
On and off the ball, there are a viable collection of skills he offers that make it difficult to punish his minimal scoring arsenal by guarding him 4-on-5. He’ll screen, he’ll move, he’ll drive, he’ll pass. All of it may ease the assimilation for both himself and the Thunder, and be components of the offense whenever he’s not the focal point.
Readily apparent during the second round was Oklahoma City’s need for a good screen-setter. It’s not one of Holmgren’s standout attributes. That left the creation burden squarely on Gilgeous-Alexander’s shoulders against a rangy, connected defense and congested paint. Williams was not prepared to effectively pilot offense in that series either. Hartenstein should simplify life for everyone with his burly, perceptive screening, cognizant of when to enforce contact and when to slip.
According to NBA.com, he was 14th in screen assists per game during the regular season (3.5) and third during the playoffs (5.1). He’s a hulking obstacle who holds firm or audibles the angle based on whatever’s needed most. He’ll spring loose off-ball shooters and ignite opportunities in pick-and-rolls.
It’s another trait of his that could boost the Thunder’s three-point numbers if he’s producing separation for their bevy of shooters with pindowns, flares and on-ball screens. Maybe, his off-ball picks are a decoy at times, opening drives for Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams to grease the offense. An elite screener surrounded by a dynamite offensive talent, a slippery secondary handler, and bountiful shooting is a devious weapon.
Whereas some screeners of Hartenstein’s caliber are short on much offensive utility — which hamstrings their minutes and usage — Hartenstein isn’t. His involvement doesn’t have to pause after the screen. His playmaking is always there against traps or overloaded defenses. He’s a release valve scorer with his floater. According to Cleaning the Glass, he ranked in the 89th percentile from short midrange last season, converting 54 percent of his looks; over the two prior years, he hit 52 percent of them.
It’s a pesky little shot, both out of ball screens or relocating from the dunker spot during paint touches. Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams (to a lesser extent) are methodical handlers who own a penchant for the midrange. Their newest center complements that style.
If utilized keenly, he can lead the charge in blotting out many of Oklahoma City’s weaknesses. His offensive rebounding is potentially his foremost skill. He’s finished in the 89th percentile or better the past two seasons, while the Thunder were 27th among 30 teams in 2023-24.
Their aversion to second chances is a byproduct of sprawling transition defense (third in lowest opposing frequency last year). But Hartenstein touts a real knack for the ball and should lug them up from the pits without ushering in systemic change.
That acumen could deter teams from switching or stashing smaller defenders on Hartenstein in an aim to allocate their size elsewhere. The Mavericks pinned lesser defenders on Holmgren in the second round because he couldn’t punish them. Hartenstein isn’t an adept scorer, but he’s a dominant offensive rebounder. That would only be amplified facing mismatches. His one-man clean-up crew will behoove a downhill-determined team that led the league in drives per game by a wide margin last season (452 more than second place).
He’s reliable patrolling the other side of the glass too, placing among the 61st percentile or better in defensive rebounding rate the last two seasons. Oklahoma City was 29th overall in 2023-24. Hartenstein will buoy that rank, along with the entire defense.
He and Holmgren were two of the league’s more effective rim protectors last season. According to NBA.com, opposing players shot 11.4 percent below their average on field goals within 6 feet when Holmgren was the nearest defender. When it was Hartenstein, they shot 11.2 percent worse. Those marks ranked sixth and seventh among 157 players who contested at least four such shots per game. One or both of them is going to be on the floor almost all the time next year!
Holmgren has cemented himself as a premier 1-on-2 defender in drop coverage, capable of dancing between ball-handler and roller. Hartenstein is a very good ball-screen defender as well, most dangerous playing near the level or in high drop. He’s light on his feet, a looming interior deterrent and wields extremely dexterous hands.
The option to tab either as the primary big defender while the other stays low should promote versatility and aggression. Oklahoma City already led the league in opposing turnover rate last year and might really distance itself after bringing in Hartenstein and Caruso. Hartenstein finished in the 90th percentile in steal rate and 74th percentile in block rate. He’s comfortable on the perimeter and in space off the ball, and excels as a defensive anchor.
Holmgren seeing extended minutes at the 4 will necessitate a learning curve. There are different defensive responsibilities. The burgeoning skills league-wide among 4s could force him into more on-ball perimeter duties than traditional big man duties. Yet the appeal and possibilities alongside Hartenstein seem so intriguing.
Last year, there was no way to deviate and play big for long spurts. Now, they can. It should become less of an alternative and more of the norm. Their talent, malleability and ceiling have elevated. They will rebound and protect the rim better, while still turning teams over at an absurd rate. They renovated snazzy parts of the boat and plugged a leak.
The perimeter group of Caruso, Dort, Williams, Wiggins, Joe, Gilgeous-Alexander and Cason Wallace is stout enough to insulate whichever big is low. Pre-switch most actions. Stash the supersized 4 on the creakiest offensive player. Enable a roamer. Specific opponents will not have a glaring hole (a la the reigning champion Boston Celtics), but that size and defensive impact is still irritating. Hartenstein’s rebounding and low man prowess might mean he’s best suited for the job. Keeping Holmgren in ball-screens defensively isn’t an issue anyway.
Last season, the Thunder’s abundance of perimeter skills came at the expense of size. Usually, that’s associated with defensive concessions. For them, though, those concessions primarily manifested offensively. Hartenstein maintains the theme of ball skills, while instilling crucial, newfound elements with his frame.
Enjoying the benefits of his signing is straightforward. He’ll back up Holmgren and play 15-18 awesome minutes nightly. Maximizing his signing demands more — less of any grand overhaul and more about a flexible identity.
Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams ceding a bit of control on the ball. More time for Hartenstein to facilitate the offense. More rolling rather than popping in ball-screens. More horizontal movement, dribble handoffs and off-ball screens. Holmgren navigating life as a 4. Credible shooters excising timidity from their line of thinking.
This roster is up to the task. Some of the foundation exists from Jaylin Williams‘ offensive usage last season. The Thunder will likely be tremendous no matter how Hartenstein is implemented. He and they are good enough. But they can be much more than their 2023-24 selves if everyone aces this pairing. That is where the true challenge resides, and what’s most important moving forward.
