Jaren Jackson Jr. to the Celtics?

It’s no secret that the Celtics are looking to trade for a starting-caliber center, being linked to names such as Ivica Zubac, Daniel Gafford, and even a reunion with Robert Williams III. However, a new name has become the topic of conversion from a team that Boston has made a big trade with in the past, Jaren Jackson Jr. of the Memphis Grizzlies. According to Matt Moore of Hardwood Paroxysm on Substack, he says:

“The Boston Celtics would love to add Jaren Jackson Jr…But if Boston loads up a pick-heavy trade package with some nice talent or tradeable contracts (Jordan Walsh, Hugo Gonzalez) for a Memphis team that would be starting over, does that get them there? Is anyone going to beat that offer for Jaren? is Jaren’s value better in a year under Iisalo and next to Edey, or worse?“

The 26-year-old 2022-23 Defensive Player of the Year is a two-time All-Star, two-time block champion, and a three-time All-Defensive Team player with career averages 18.5 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks on 47% shooting from the field, 35% from three and 79% from the free throw line.

After averaging 22.2 points in an All-Star campaign last season, Jackson Jr. has regressed a little bit with averages of 18.5 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks, but is still shooting 48% from the field and 36% from three on a struggling Grizzlies team that looks to be moving on from star Ja Morant. If Morant gets moved, it feels almost certain that Jackson Jr. would be gone soon after.

A trade package for the Grizzlies big man would have to start out with the contracts of Anfernee Simons and Sam Hauser to match the money. The contracts would even out if it was just these two players, but I feel the Grizzlies would really want at least one of Hugo Gonzalez/Josh Minott/Jordan Walsh on top of at least two 1st round picks. In my mind, the trade looks like this:

Grizzlies Receive: Anfernee Simons, Sam Hauser, Hugo Gonzalez, 2026 1st Round Pick, 2030 1st Round Pick (pick swap).

Celtics Receive: Jaren Jackson Jr.

This trade sheds around $5.5 Million off of the books for the Celtics and gives them an elite player at the center. This trade also works if you replace Hauser with Josh Minott and Jordan Walsh, but you get a lot less cap relief.

Jaren Jackson Jr. is a great player and his skill set would fit into the Joe Mazzulla’s system like a glove. JJJ could be a souped-up version of what Kristaps Porzingis was on the Celtics over the last two seasons: a big man who can provide elite spacing for five-man out lineups and an elite rim protector on defense. This would vault the Celtics right back into championship contention as soon as this season, but also for the future when Jayson Tatum is fully healthy. Jackson signed a 5-year, $240 million extension in July of this season, so he will be under contract for a long time.

There is a chance where they could have JJJ play the center position which would give the Celtics a Pritchard-White-Brown-Tatum-JJJ starting lineup. Or, they could go with a jumbo-sized lineup that would move Tatum to the small forward position and Jackson Jr. to the power forward, looking like White-Brown-Tatum-JJJ-Queta.

One of these lineups with the rest of the depth on this roster is a championship level roster that could compete with any powerhouse in the Western Conference in theory. Imagine the jumbo lineup when it comes to playing a team like the Nuggets with Nikola Jokic or the Spurs with Victor Wembanyama. The switching defense with White at the point guard position would also look great against a team like the Oklahoma City Thunder with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

One of the glaring flaws in JJJ’s game is the fact that he is not a good rebounder at all. His 5.6 rebounds per game is really low for a starting center in today’s NBA and as Moore mentions, the Celtics already have problems rebounding at the big man position already:

“For the Celtics, he doesn’t address their rebounding problems. They would still need to find a long-term center who can rebound to go next to him (though the numbers are pretty good with Queta).”

The addition of Jayson Tatum could help in the rebounding department, but there is also the issue with the fit. Jackson Jr. does a lot of scoring in isolation and has been the number 1 option a lot of times with the Grizzlies when Ja Morant has been out with injury. Would he be willing to sacrifice some of his stats and be the third option behind Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown? His on/off numbers also have him as a -2.7 on the Grizzlies so far this season which isn’t great. Some of that could be due to the team around him or is it a lack of effort?

Another big problem with Jackson Jr. is that he gets into a foul trouble a lot, averaging 3.8 personal fouls per game this season, hindering Memphis’ defense. In 37 games this season, he has finished in foul trouble in 12, while fouling out in 4 of them. Would the Celtics be able to get his fouling issue under control?

JJJ’s contract could also be an issue for Boston as he is making $49 Million in 2027, $50.5M in 2028, $52M in 2029, and $53.5M in 2030. Do the Celtics want to throw themselves back into the second apron with three big contracts of Brown, Tatum, and Jackson Jr.?

I think the positives really outweigh the negatives in this case. If a reasonable offer is on the table for JJJ, I think Brad Stevens and the Celtics should pull the trigger. This trade feels similar to when they acquired Derrick White in the 2022 season — a mid-season trade for a guy who fits the system and is under contract to contribute for years to come.

When it comes to his deficiencies, the Celtics development staff has also shown incredible strides when it comes to developing big men in their system. Look at their success stories with Luke Kornet, Neemias Queta, and even Luka Garza. I imagine Joe Mazzulla and the Celtics coaching staff could unlock another level that could make him a perfect fit on this team.

Stretch bigs just entering their prime like JJJ don’t come along in trade talks very often and the last time Boston had a player with a similar skill set alongside Brown and Tatum, they won a championship.