Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury

WNBA Finals Game 4 Prediction, Pick: Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury

The Las Vegas Aces are just one win away from claiming their third title in four years. After a dominant 91–78 victory in Game 2, Vegas showed resilience in Game 3, battling through a relentless Mercury squad that erased a 17-point deficit to tie things up in the fourth quarter. But A’ja Wilson is the MVP for a reason — her clutch turnaround jumper sealed the win and put the Aces on the brink of another championship. Game 4 tips off Friday, October 10 at 8:00 p.m. ET, and for Phoenix, it’s win or go home.

Let’s break down Game 4 of the WNBA Finals, go over WNBA odds, and I’ll share my top picks on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Stay locked into the WNBA Finals with game previews, best bets, and predictions all postseason long on DraftKingsNetwork.com!

Aces Are One Win Away

The Aces have been nearly impossible to stop when locked in. Wilson continues to elevate her play, posting her ninth 30-point playoff game with 34 points and 14 rebounds in Game 3. Jackie Young remains a steady No. 2 scorer, dropping 21 points in Game 3 after exploding for 21 in the third quarter alone of Game 2. With Chelsea Gray operating as a true floor general, Jewell Loyd providing a spark from deep, and veteran experience, the Aces look like a team that knows how to close.

Phoenix Faces an Uphill Battle

For the Mercury, the challenge couldn’t be bigger. With Satou Sabally officially ruled out due to a head injury, Phoenix loses its top scorer and primary offensive anchor. That puts immense pressure on Kahleah Copper, who’s been electric in stretches, dropping 19 first-half points in the series opener and 23 in Game 2. She’ll need another explosive outing to give the Mercury a fighting chance.

But even with Copper’s aggressiveness, the numbers are stacked against Phoenix. Their defensive struggles on the perimeter have been costly — in Game 3 alone, the Aces drained nine threes in the first half and built an early cushion. While Phoenix tightened up after halftime, it’s clear that Vegas’ depth and shot-making continue to expose mismatches across the board.

Game 4 Prediction, Picks

The Aces have all the momentum, the best player in the league in A’ja Wilson, and a roster firing on every level. They’ve carried the energy from their 16-game regular-season winning streak straight through the Finals, and with the Mercury shorthanded, this feels like the perfect setup for Vegas to finish the job.

The line is short for a team with this much control over the series — and I’m backing the Aces to cover. I expect Wilson to dominate inside, the supporting cast to stay sharp, and Las Vegas to take home a trophy on Friday night.

Pick: Las Vegas Aces -2.5 (-115)

Same Game Parlay (SGP) for Game 4

Kahleah Copper Over 18.5 Points — With Satou Sabally sidelined, Copper should take on a heavy offensive load in a must-win game. Expect her to stay aggressive from the start.
Jewell Loyd 2+ Three-Pointers Made — Loyd’s confidence from deep has been key, and she’s hit multiple threes in every game this series.
Las Vegas Aces -2.5 — The champs close it out behind A’ja Wilson’s dominance and Vegas’ unmatched depth.

All odds and lines provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.

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