The Minnesota Lynx orchestrated a wild comeback win in Game 1 of the WNBA Finals, putting the New York Liberty in a tough spot in Game 2 at home.
New York led for most of the game, but the Lynx took the lead late in the fourth quarter thanks to a four-point play by guard Courtney Williams.
However, the Liberty – down one – tied the game after Napheesa Collier fouled Breanna Stewart in the final seconds. Stewie made just one of the two shots from the line, leading to overtime.
Once again, the Lynx – this time Collier – came up with a late clutch bucket, and they got a stop to win by two in Game 1.
It was a rough game for two of the Liberty’s stars, as Sabrina Ionescu and Stewart combined to shoot just 14-for-47 from the field.
That likely won’t happen again, but New York is now just 1-4 straight up against the Lynx this season. Still, oddsmakers expect the Liberty to avoid a dreaded 0-2 deficit (teams are 0-19 in WNBA history when trailing 2-0) in Game 2.
Here’s a look at the latest odds, key players to watch and my best bet for Game 2.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Lynx Injury Report
Liberty Injury Report
Minnesota Lynx
Courtney Williams: Williams has been on fire since the semifinals, and she had a huge Game 1, scoring 23 points on 9-of-18 shooting to go with five rebounds and five assists. The Lynx had three players (Collier, Kayla McBride and Williams) with over 20 points in Game 1. If the veteran guard keeps shooting the ball at this rate, Minnesota is going to be a tough out in this series.
New York Liberty
Jonquel Jones: The Liberty have to find a way to get Jonquel Jones involved more in the offense. She attempted just 14 shots in Game 1 despite scoring 24 points on 9-of-14 shooting. The Lynx don’t have a great matchup for Jones in the low post, but New York relied on Sabrina Ionescu (8-for-26) and Breanna Stewart (6-for-21) too primarily in Game 1. There needs to be more touches for Jones in Game 2 if the Liberty want to win this series.
In Game 1, I bet on Minnesota to cover the spread, and I don’t see a reason not to go back to the well in Game 2.
This spread has moved in favor of the Liberty – despite the fact that they lost Game 1.
New York has been shaky against the spread at home all season long, going 7-18-1 while the Lynx are 17-7 ATS on the road and 13-4 ATS as underdogs.
Minnesota now has a playoff win, a Commissioner’s Cup title win and two regular season wins against the Liberty this season.
New York relied heavily on Stewart and Ionescu, who should shoot the ball better in Game 2, in Game 1, and it burned them against an elite Minnesota defense (No. 2 in the WNBA in defensive rating).
Both of these teams shoot a lot of 3s, but the Lynx are No. 1 in the league in 3-point percentage and have shown all season that they can compete with this Liberty team.
Even if Minnesota loses Game 2, I don’t expect it to get blown out.
Pick: Lynx +7 (-112)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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