Mark Vientos and Jose Iglesias are Powering the Mets to Victory

As I sit down to write today, the Mets rank fourth in the majors with a 113 wRC+ and sixth with 19.7 position player WAR. They’re outperforming their star-studded division rivals in Philadelphia and Atlanta in both metrics. If you had told me on Opening Day that the Mets would have a higher wRC+ than the Braves after the trade deadline, I’d have scoffed at your ignorance. If you had told me at the end of May that the Mets’ lineup would surpass that of the Phillies in WAR within eight weeks, I’d have laughed in your face. After all, the Mets ranked 13th in wRC+ (99) and 16th in position player WAR (6.2) two months into the season. At that time, they had a 24-33 record to show for their efforts, and they were trending toward a second straight midsummer sell-off.

Yet, since the first of June, the Mets rank first in the majors with a 130 wRC+ and second with 13.6 position player WAR. They have gone 33-18 in that span, the best record in baseball. Not only did David Stearns hold onto potential trade chips Pete Alonso, J.D. Martinez, and Luis Severino at the deadline, but he made several additions, bringing Jesse Winker, Paul Blackburn, Phil Maton, Huascar Brazoban, and Ryne Stanek into the fold. According to ZiPS, the Mets increased their playoff odds by 8.2% at the deadline. And according to our Playoff Odds page, the Mets increased their postseason chances by 36.0% between May 31 and today. They are one of only two teams whose odds have risen from below 10% to above 50% at any point this season. The other is the Royals, who were at 9.9% for about 24 hours at the end of March:

One could make a compelling argument that the Mets have had the most impressive turnaround of any team in baseball this season. And while you might have seen plenty of the credit for this remarkable reversal of fortunes directed at a certain purple mascot, I’m here to highlight the real loveable monsters behind the Mets’ newfound winning ways: Mark Vientos and Jose Iglesias.

First things first, let me give credit where credit is due. No one has been more critical to the Mets’ success than Francisco Lindor. His 3.4 WAR since June 1 leads the entire National League. He is quietly giving Shohei Ohtani a run for his money in the NL MVP race. Yet, to maintain the fast food mascot analogy, Lindor is the Ronald McDonald in this equation, and not just because of his famous smile. He’s the main character and the face of the franchise. Nothing about his success should be new or surprising.

Vientos and Iglesias, on the other hand, have unexpectedly pushed their way into the spotlight. The 2023 season was not particularly kind to either of them. They each hit well at Triple-A, but Vientos couldn’t replicate that success in the majors, and Iglesias couldn’t find a team to give him a chance in the bigs. Neither made the Mets’ Opening Day roster this year, losing out to the likes of Brett Baty, Joey Wendle, and Zack Short. Yet, as the rest of New York’s options at second and third base faltered, Vientos and Iglesias emerged as unlikely heroes. Much like Grimace, they have stolen the hearts of baseball fans all across Queens.

Since June 1, Vientos ranks second on the Mets with 10.0 wRAA and 1.7 WAR, trailing only Lindor. His 148 wRC+ ranks third (min. 50 plate appearances). Iglesias hasn’t played quite as much, so his 1.3 WAR ranks fourth, but still, his 7.9 wRAA ranks third and his 160 wRC+ is the top mark on the team (again, min. 50 PA). On the season, Vientos and Iglesias each rank among the top 10 NL batters (min. 100 PA) in wRC+. Sure, that’s a low plate appearance threshold at this point in the season, but it’s impressive all the same:

Vientos experienced his fair share of big league growing pains in 2022 and ’23, but he hit the ground running in ’24. From his season debut on April 27 through the end of May, he posted a 174 wRC+. He followed that up with a 149 wRC+ in June and a 148 mark in July. In 12 games since the All-Star break, he is slashing an excellent .262/.319/.619 with three doubles and four home runs. I have already put off writing about him several times with the presumption that he was bound to slow down, but he refuses to take his foot off the gas.

Raw power has always been Vientos’s carrying tool, and the big question was if he could make enough contact to capitalize on his strength in games. So far, that hasn’t been a problem. With 16 home runs in 63 contests, he is crushing bombs at a 41-homer full-season pace. If he had enough plate appearances to qualify, his .277 isolated power would be tied for second in the NL, behind only Ohtani and Ozuna. His .357 xwOBA (85th percentile) isn’t quite as impressive as his .383 wOBA, but that’s largely because he’s running a .329 BABIP, and his.267 xBA is 19 points lower than his .286 batting average. Power numbers, on the other hand, are harder to fake. Statcast thinks he’s gotten a little lucky on home runs (only 14.2 xHR), but still, Vientos ranks seventh in the NL (min. 200 PA) with a .242 xISO.

Contact remains an issue for Vientos; his 26.0% strikeout rate isn’t terrible for a power hitter, but his 33.0% whiff rate and 16.0% swinging strike rate are ugly. Moreover, his 90.4 mph average exit velocity (70th percentile) and 45.1% hard-hit rate (75th percentile) are surprisingly poor for a hitter with so much raw power. As his 17.3% barrel rate (97th percentile) suggests, Vientos can absolutely destroy the ball when he hits it the way he wants to. However, his 34.5% squared-up rate on contact (63rd percentile of batters, min. 200 swings) tells us he isn’t making optimal contact nearly as often as he could. And when Vientos doesn’t barrel the baseball, his average EV, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, and xISO are all marginally worse than the league average:

All things considered, it’s hard to call this a problem when Vientos is hitting so well. However, if the 24-year-old can make more solid contact in addition to his barrels, he’ll be all the more dangerous at the plate. This will be especially important if opposing pitchers continue to challenge him by throwing him progressively more breaking balls and fewer fastballs each month than the one before. The best hitters can make competitive contact even when they aren’t making perfect contact against the perfect hitter’s pitch.

Iglesias, more than a decade removed from his top prospect status, is much more of a known quantity than Vientos. In other words, it’s hard to believe his success is anywhere near as sustainable. We have 1,138 games and 4,167 plate appearances of data with which to evaluate Iglesias, not to mention hoards of evidence that journeymen infielders rarely turn into superstars in their mid-thirties. That said, he really does look better this year; his .337 xwOBA isn’t nearly as impressive as his .387 wOBA, but it’s still above league average and the second-best mark of his career. Then again, we’re only talking about 124 PA. What’s more, we have seen him do this before, and he’s four years older this time around. Iglesias put up a 160 wRC+ with a 91st percentile xwOBA over 150 plate appearances in the 2020 season, only to produce an 89 wRC+ and a 17th percentile xwOBA the following year. There’s a reason we repeat the phrase “small sample size” so often on this website

Still, Iglesias has been an absolute delight to watch, and he deserves plenty of credit for his role in the Mets’ midseason turnaround. He may not be a top-10 hitter in the NL for much longer, but he has certainly proven that teams were foolish not to have taken a chance on him in a bench role last season. He produced between 1.0 and 2.0 WAR every season from 2015 to ’22, and he has already done so again in ’24. He remains a capable defender at 34 years old, and his signature skill – putting the ball in play – is alive and well. His whiff and strikeout rates are elite, while his walk-to-strikeout ratio is the best it’s been since 2016:

Last season, third base was a disaster zone for the Mets. Their third basemen hit a combined .212/.266/.324 with a 64 wRC+ and -1.2 WAR; no team received less production from the hot corner. This year, on account of a breakout season from Vientos and a little help from Iglesias, the Mets have improved more at third base than anywhere else on the diamond. Entering play today, they rank first in the NL and second in the majors at third base with 3.5 WAR – and that’s with Baty (85 wRC+, 0.5 WAR in 47 games) taking the majority of the reps at the position over the first two months of the season. Vientos is responsible for 2.6 WAR at third, where he has played in 61 of his 63 games. Iglesias has chipped in another 0.6 WAR in just 22 PA and 58 innings there thanks to a 213 wRC+ and 2 OAA. If those two can provide even half as much production over the next two months, the Mets will finish with 5.1 WAR at third base. That would be more than a six-win improvement over last season’s mark. No position has played a bigger role in this team’s comeback from disappointing sellers to legitimate Wild Card contenders

What’s more, the Mets will almost surely finish the season among the top half of teams in third base WAR for the first time since the days of healthy David Wright. No one is ready to call Vientos the second coming of the greatest position player in franchise history, but it must be nice for Mets fans to see a new star shining at the hot corner.

Not to be forgotten, Iglesias has also helped raise the bar for the Mets at second base amid disappointing seasons from Jeff McNeil and Wendle. McNeil has an 86 wRC+ and 0.5 WAR in 80 games (305 PA) at second this year, while Wendle contributed a 30 wRC+ and -0.2 WAR in seven games (21 PA) before he was DFA’d. Iglesias has boosted the team’s overall numbers with a 148 wRC+ and 0.8 WAR in 26 games (96 PA) at the keystone. As a result, the Mets rank 17th in baseball with 1.1 WAR and 12th with a 97 wRC+ from their second basemen. It has helped that McNeil is finally hitting again (146 wRC+ in July), though with Iglesias playing so well, McNeil has seen more of his playing time in the outfield. It remains to be seen how manager Carlos Mendoza will split up the available playing time now that Winker is in the outfield mix, not to mention what he’ll do once Starling Marte returns from the injured list. Ultimately, however, that’s a good problem for the Mets to have. They’re going to need all the offense they can get down the stretch.

The 2024 Mets rank 25th in FIP (4.35) and 29th in pitching WAR (5.2). The past month was especially brutal; Mets pitchers ranked last in the majors with a 5.22 FIP and -0.5 WAR. Their trade deadline acquisitions should help, but even the combination of Blackburn, Brazoban, Stanek, and Maton probably won’t be as beneficial as a healthy Kodai Senga would have been. The Mets’ ace looked sharp in his season debut last week (5.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K) until a calf strain forced his early exit. After the game, Mendoza told reporters that “it’s fair to say” Senga is out for the rest of the regular season. Thus, if the Mets are going to reclaim and hold onto a Wild Card spot, their offense – including Vientos and Iglesias – needs to keep making magic.