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The New York Liberty are the defending champs for a reason.
Despite slipping to the No. 5 seed in the standings this season, New York pulled off a road win in Game 1 of the first round against the Phoenix Mercury on Sunday evening. The Liberty needed overtime to get the win, but Natasha Cloud (23 points ) dominated her former team to lead the defending champs to a win.
New York was favored in Game 1, and it’s set as an even bigger favorite in Game 2 at Barclays Center. The Liberty were one of the best home teams in the W this season, going 17-5 straight up in Brooklyn.
Satou Sabally (2-for-17 from the field in Game 1) and the Mercury are looking to bounce back, as they’ve beaten this New York team three times already in 2025.
One thing to watch: Breanna Stewart injured her knee in overtime and did not return, and she could end up sitting out Game 2. Sandy Brondello said the injury is not serious, but that Stewie is a game-time decision for Wednesday.
Game 2 should be a fun one, as a potential winner-take-all Game 3 waits on Wednesday night.
Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my prediction for Game 2.Â
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Mercury Injury Report
Liberty Injury Report
Liberty Best WNBA Prop Bet
A former league MVP, Jones had a huge game on the glass on Sunday, grabbing 12 rebounds in nearly 35 minutes of playing time.
Jones should carry another big load on the glass in Game 2 – especially if Stewart is unable to suit up for the Liberty. This season, the All-Star center averaged 8.1 rebounds per game, and Jones has a pretty good matchup with a Mercury team that ranked ninth in the WNBA in rebounding percentage during the regular season.Â
Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m taking the defending champs to win and advance in Game 2:Â
This bet could end up being a risky one after Breanna Stewart went down with a knee injury in overtime in Game 1, but I’m trusting the Liberty and their infrastructure at home.Â
New York was 17-5 at home in the regular season, posting a net rating of +12.1 – the second-best mark in the WNBA.
If Stewart sits, this line will move in favor of the Mercury, which is why I’m only taking the moneyline in this matchup.
The Mercury were just 12-10 on the road in the 2025 regular season, and they struggled offensively in Game 1 – which was my biggest concern for them in this series.
The defending champs did exactly what they needed to set up a clinching chance at home, and I think they take advantage on Wednesday.Â
Pick: Liberty Moneyline (-155 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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