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The first day of the 2025 WNBA Commissioner’s Cup action is set for this Sunday, and one of the four games will be a Western Conference showdown between the Phoenix Mercury and Los Angeles Sparks.
The Sparks have stumbled out of the gates to start the year and are 1-4 in their last five games. Despite that, they’re set as slight favorites against the Mercury on Sunday. Let’s dive into the odds and my best bets.
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Mercury Injury Report
Sparks Injury Report
Note: As of writing this article, prop bets of not been made available.
One of the biggest weaknesses for the Mercury this season has been their rebounding. They’re second last in the WNBA in rebounding percentage, grabbing just 47.6% of available rebounds. To try to take advantage of that, let’s target the Sparks’ best rebounder, Azura Stevens, to go over her rebounding total. She’s averaging 9.6 rebounds per game this season, the fifth-highest average in the league.
The Mercury are going to be in trouble with Alyssa Thomas out for this game. They lost to the Minnesota Lynx in their first game without her on Friday, losing by a final score of 74-71. The loss will continue to haunt them on Sunday against an underperforming Sparks team.
There’s enough there from the Sparks to indicate to me that we’re going to see some positive regression from this team. They’re third in the WNBA in effective field goal percentage, but will need to step things up on defense. Luckily for them, one of Mercury’s top scorers in Thomas, will be out, which will give the Sparks the ability to overcome their poor defense.
I’ll take the Sparks to win and cover on Sunday.
Pick: Sparks -2.5 (-114) via DraftKings
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You can check out all of Iain’s bets here!
