NCAA: Predicting conference tournament Cinderellas

The ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC conference tournaments all tip off on Wednesday.

With recent conference expansion, these tournaments have become even more massive, with tournaments completing two rounds before most top teams even take the court. Those logistics, in combination with the top-heavy character of most conferences, can result in the early days of the tournaments seeming a bit irrelevant, as the teams competing will eventually become fodder for the true conference tournament title contenders.

Or, the early rounds are the perfect opportunity for a Cinderella to begin practicing her dance steps, unassumingly preparing for a big upset to come.

In that spirit, here’s one potential ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC Cinderella who may begin her waltzing her way to a longer-than-expected tourney run on Wednesday.

ACC: Cal might have the recipie for a surprise tournament run

It’s been a rough year for the ACC.

Once the premier conference in women’s college basketball, the bigger-than-ever ACC—so big that not every team even makes the tournament—is not better than ever. The Cinderella pickings, in turn, are slim.

However, if it is true that, “Defense wins championships,” then Cal, the No. 10 seed, might have the best shot at doing something special. Among first-round teams, Cal has the best scoring defense, holding teams to 63.2 points per game.

The Golden Bears open their tournament against No. 15-seed Wake Forest at 1:30 p.m. ET (ACC Network).

In Lulu Twidale, Cal also has one of the highest individual scorers among first-round teams. The junior guard averaged over 16 points per game, good enough to earn an All-ACC Second Team nod. She finished the regular season on a scoring high. She dropped 30 points on Florida State. Two games later, she put 23 on Clemson before closing out the regular season with 25 points against SMU.

Big Ten: Illinois has shown they can compete with conference powerhouses

Compared to the ACC, the Big Ten sports strong Cinderella candidates. Quite a few first-round competitors should find themselves with a bid to the NCAA Tournament. An upstart tournament run, however, would certainly help their chances.

Things could conspire right for No. 10-seed Illinois. Although they ended the season unranked, the Illini did creep into the top 25 during the season, an indication of their quality. And their stats suggests they’re better than their record. Illinois finished with the eighth-best point differential in the Big Ten, outscoring opponents by 356 points over the course of the season.

They earned that margin by not getting blown out, even against some of the Big Ten’s very best. Most recently, they gave No. 9 Iowa, the No. 2 seed in the Big Ten, all the Hawkeyes could handle in their home finale. This past Sunday, they pushed No. 22 Minnesota to the brink, making the Golden Gophers earn their No. 4 seed and first-round bye.

That experience in close, competitive games should serve them well in the tournament setting. Illinois begins their Big Ten Tournament against Wisconsin, the No. 15 seed, at 6 p.m. ET (Peacock). Earlier in the season, the Illini beat the Badgers by more than 30 points.

With a win, the competition will quickly escalate for Illinois, as they would meet Ohio State, the No. 5 seed that is ranked No. 11 nationally, on Thursday at 2:30 p.m. ET (BTN). If the Illini make it there, they’ll certainly need a better plan for Jaloni Cambridge, who dropped a career-high 41 points in the nine-point Buckeye win in early January.

But first, the Illini will look for leading scorer Berry Wallace, voted to First Team All-Big Team by conference coaches, to steer them out of the first round.

Big 12: Kansas might be better than their regular-season record

Similar to Illinois, Kansas has compiled a number of close losses that suggest they’re more formidable than their record would indicate.

Since a mid-January win over Arizona that snapped a four-game losing streak, Kansas is 7-4, and until their final game of the regular season, when they lost by 14 points to Oklahoma State, the Jayhawks hadn’t been beaten by more than five points. That includes a near upset of Big 12 regular-season champs TCU, as Kansas lost by just two points on the Horned Frogs’ home floor.

One of those losses also came to Colorado by just three points. If the No. 11-seed Jayhawks can beat No. 14-seed UCF in their first-round game (8 p.m. ET, ESPN+), they would meet the No. 6-seed Buffaloes in a rematch on Thursday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN+).

Kansas enjoys the services of S’Mya Nichols and Jaliya Davis. Nichols, a nearly 18-point per game scorer who shoots over 40 percent from 3, was named to the All-Big 12 First Team; Davis is the Big 12 Freshman of the Year, leading the Jayhawks with 21 points per game.

SEC: Texas A&M has gotten hot at the right time

A team ranked in the top 25, No. 17 Kentucky, and the highest votes-receiving team, Alabama with 29 votes, don’t exactly profile as Cinderellas, even if the No. 9-seed Wildcats and No. 11-seed Crimson Tide will begin their SEC Tournament journeys in the first round, with Kentucky kicking things off against No. 16-seed Arkansas (11 a.m. ET, SEC Network) and Bama meeting No. 14-seed Missouri (8:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network).

No. 10-seed Texas A&M, however, does qualify as a Cinderella. The Aggies take on No. 15-seed Auburn (6 p.m. ET, SEC Network).

A&M finished the season on a five-game winning streak, with two of those victories coming over then-ranked teams. They contributed to Tennessee’s troubles, beating the then-No. 21 Lady Vols in Knoxville. The Aggies then added to Ole Miss’ late-season slide, defeating the now-No. 24 Rebels when they were ranked No. 19.

Texas A&M’s streak began with an almost 20-point win over Auburn. Another victory over the Tigers would set the Aggies up with a rematch against the Rebels on Thursday (6 p.m. ET, SEC Network).

The Aggies do not standout in any particular statistical category; instead, they’ve just found ways to get the job done.

They also benefit from the reliable duo of Ny’Ceara Pryor and Fatama Janneh. Pryor, an All-SEC Second Team and All-Defensive honoree, leads the Aggies in scoring with almost 16 points per game, while also tossing more than seven assists and nabbing 3.5 steals per game. Janneh averages a 12-points and 10.2-rebound double-double.