On Black Friday, now-No. 10 TCU pulled off the upset win of the season against then-No. 3 Notre Dame in the Cayman Islands Classic, 76-68. Not only did the win tie the highest-ranked victory in program history, but it was also a testament to the potential of this offense and the growing draft stock of Hailey Van Lith.
Van Lith always had a high draft potential—until last season. She struggled in her only year at LSU, where she posted career lows in scoring efficiency and saw her points per game decrease by eight points. Her season with the Tigers dropped her draft stock significantly, leading to doubts about whether she could play at the WNBA level. During that season, she played mostly on-ball, which was an adjustment that she struggled with.
This win against Notre Dame showcased Van Lith’s improvement as a lead guard.
On the game’s first possession, Notre Dame started by putting two on the ball, doubling Van Lith at the point of the screen. She makes a nice hanging pass here, which is a play she made a few times throughout this game when Notre Dame was in a trapping coverage.
Van Lith has always had the quickness to punish defenses with her wicked crossover. Sonia Citron was her primary defender for most of this game, and Van Lith was able to buckle her a few times. HVL also found success against two-way star Hannah Hidalgo and Cassandre Prosper.
This ability to collapse the defense with a crossover meant that Notre Dame couldn’t be as aggressive hedging ball screens because of Van Lith’s threat to reject the screen and drive unimpeded to the basket. Even when the Irish tried forcing Van Lith to her right hand, they were mostly unsuccessful.
So the Irish then tried playing drop coverage with Kate Koval, while relying on Citron to fight over the screens and stay attached to Van Lith. HVL was able to punish the Irish’s drop coverage by finding space in the middle of the paint to rise up for jumpers or collapse the defense and find open teammates. Even though some of these plays don’t result in made baskets, the shot quality is what matters here, as Van Lith was able to create a quality look on almost every drop coverage possession the Irish played.
This pick-and-roll mastery was also unlocked because of the outside shooting ability of Sedona Prince, the 6-foot-7 senior center who has a respectable shot that can punish defenses that give her the space to shoot long 2s.
Van Lith and Prince were able to carve up Notre Dame’s defense by running pick-and-roll and dribble handoffs, largely due to Prince’s passing ability from the free throw line and a subtle second half adjustment from TCU’s head coach Mark Campbell.
At LSU, Van Lith largely was used solely as an initiator on the ball. However, in the second half of this game, Campbell had Van Lith playing off the ball and had her flow into Spanoulis actions to catch Notre Dame’s defense off guard and put unexpected downhill pressure on their defense. Spanoulis action is when a guard cuts from under the rim towards the top of the key for a handoff. Van Lith would often give the ball up and curl from the right side of the floor to under the basket to the weakside corner and up to the top of the key to receive and handoff or screen from a big, giving her momentum to get downhill with a defender on her back.
This move worked pretty well. Fatigue was obviously a factor for the Irish, but Van Lith was able to get great shots for herself, scoring 19 of her 21 points in the second half.
Trailing by double digits headed into the fourth quarter, the only way for the Horned Frogs to get back into the game was through defense. Van Lith was solid on that end, forcing Hidalgo and Citron into difficult shots and even forcing a deflection in pick-and-roll.
While Van Lith had a great game as the lead guard against an elite Notre Dame defense, room for more improvement remains. I would love to see her become more comfortable keeping her dribble alive when her driving lanes are cut off. She did have a few possessions where she took bad shots or missed opportunities to create a mismatch because she picked up her dribble.
Overall, TCU’s upset win against Notre Dame showcased the potential of Van Lith as a prospect in this year’s draft. She isn’t very high up on most draft boards because of her size and struggles on the ball. But she made strides in her weakest areas as a player, all while leading the Horned Frogs to one of the biggest upsets of this season and in program history.
