NCAAW: Does upset of Duke put Clemson in the Big Dance?

Since December, there may not have been a college basketball team hotter than Duke. Head coach Kara Lawson and the Blue Devils had won 17-straight games dating back to Dec. 7, clawing back into the AP Poll after an embarrassing 3-6 record to start the season.

Given the height of their impressive peak, not many expected then-No. 9 Duke to have their streak ended by Clemson—a shaky team in their own right. The Blue Devils had a 10-point lead early in the fourth quarter, whittled away and finally broken by Hannah Kohn’s game winning quick-release 3.

The Tigers realistically will have a tough time topping the ACC Tournament for an automatic bid into the NCAA Tournament. But after a top-10 ranked upset, does Clemson have an argument for an at-large bid to the Big Dance?

The Tigers are experiencing a turnaround season

Clemson hasn’t made the NCAA Tournament since they secured a No. 9 seed in the 2019 season, the first year of former head coach Amanda Butler’s tenure. The upset of the Blue Devils was the Tigers’ 10th ACC win, a milestone the program hadn’t reached since the 2000-01 season, which was also the last season they made an appearance in the AP Top 25 poll.

For a school that’s been plagued by 3-to-5 win seasons, 10 conference W’s is a big deal.

A methodical yet efficient offense had propelled the Tigers to their success. They shoot a lot of 3s, and make them at a solid rate. While they average less than 70 points per game, they score the ball at a top-40 rate in the NCAA. Don’t let their slow pace fool you: They are a deep and talented offensive team.

They also win the margins of the game. They turn rarely turn the ball over, and even when they do, it’s usually through more-acceptable dead ball turnovers and violations. They also defend the 3-point line extremely well and are an overall disciplined defensive team. Their defense allows them to stay in games. They shot terribly in their win over Duke (just 32 percent from the field) but won the turnover battle and defended the 3-point line.

The Tigers are hungrier for more. And if they can beat Duke, they can beat anyone in the ACC.

Still, sustaining that level of play through an ACC Tournament run is far from likely. So, when we look at the alternative route to March Madness, how does Clemson’s resume stack up? Do they have an argument to earn a bid for the first time since the 2001-02 season?

Does Clemson have a Tournament-worthy resume?

Outside of the pedestal-worthy Duke upset, Clemson has wins over backsliding-yet-solid Notre Dame and NC State teams, both who were ranked highly in the preseason. They have double-digit wins against the ACC’s bottom feeders, which is always a good sign for a team’s postseason candidacy. Being able to dispose of weak teams and set yourself apart will always speak volumes about your ability to compete in March.

Clemson also competed with North Carolina, holding the Tar Heels to just 53 points in their early-February matchup. They’ll undoubtedly be hurt by their loss to a poor Georgia Tech team and a blowout loss to Alabama. Alabama is a likely tournament team as well, but they’ve been middle of the pack in their own conference since January. Losing to them by 30 points doesn’t bode well for the rest of Clemson’s resume.

If Clemson finishes conference play with wins over at Cal on Thursday (10 p.m. ET, ACC Extra) and Stanford on Sunday (2 p.m. ET, The CW), a 21-9 record and a 12-6 conference record will be enough to bring their name up in Selection Sunday conversations.

If they make waves in the ACC Tournament, that will help them even more. They may not yet have enough evidence to prove themselves as a legitimate postseason team, but the best Clemson roster in years has a shot at proving themselves on a national stage.