NCAAW: Evaluating UCLA’s chances of making it back to the Final Four

Last year, the UCLA Bruins reached the Final Four for the first time in program history. This season, expectations have risen as they are now a championship-or-bust team.

So far, UCLA has lived up to the hype. Lauren Betts has been spectacular, averaging 16.4 points and 8.6 rebounds as she was named Player of the Year in the Big Ten, while also repeating as the conference’s Defensive Player of the Year. She also was First-Team All-Big Ten, joined by Kiki Rice, and Cori Close was named Big Ten Coach of the Year.

Now, it’s time to truly test themselves against the best teams in the country.

The Bruins’ dominance has been respected as they enter the Sacramento region of the bracket as the No. 1 seed.

While the goal might be to cut down the nets, you have to hit the right dance steps throughout March to get to April. Here’s a preview of the road to Phoenix for the Bruins, with a look at the potential potholes that could bust their championship dreams.

Is UCLA actually vulnerable to an early-round exit?

The Bruins should have no problem taking care of the only opponent they for sure know they’ll have to face. On Saturday at Pauley Pavilion, UCLA hosts No. 16-seed Cal Baptist (10 p.m. ET, ESPN).

In the second round, they’ll play either No. 8-seed Oklahoma St. or No. 9-seed Princeton. Both teams are talented, but flawed. The Tigers were the Ivy League’s top team, but they don’t have any wins over top-25 teams.

The Cowgirls did defeat Iowa State when the Cyclones were still ranked in the top 25, but, otherwise, they’re 2-4 against top-25 teams, which isn’t exactly an indicator that they’ll thrive against the No. 2 team in the country.

In a single-elimination game, anything can happen, but the Bruins should reach the Sweet 16 for the 11th time in the program’s history.

The Bruins should take care of business in the Sweet 16

No. 4-seed Minnesota and No. 5-seed Ole Miss are the most likely teams UCLA will face in the Sweet 16 game.

The Golden Gophers are very guard-heavy, so containing Tori McKinney and Grace Grocholski, who both scored in double figures for the season, will be key. Sophie Hart leads the team in rebounding as a backcourt player, so UCLA will likely win the battle of the boards against Minnesota. The good news for the Bruins is that they beat Minnesota in the regular season, doing so handily, 76-58.

Ole Miss has a more dynamic scorer on their roster with Cotie McMahon. She’s averaging 19.9 points per game. Containing her will be critical if the Bruins have to face the Rebels.

Ole Miss has had some success against some of the best teams in the country. They beat Vanderbilt and Oklahoma and lost by just three points against Texas.

Can UCLA count on another Elite Eight win over LSU?

In the bottom half of UCLA’s region, there’s some fierce competition.

No. 2-seed LSU will be a popular upset pick. Flau’Jae Johnson is an elite scorer, averaging 13.8 points per game while averaging 40 percent from 3-point range. She can get hot and dismantle a team, even one as talented as the Bruins.

MiLaysia Fulwiley is just as talented and is averaging a team-high 14.6 points. The Tigers are a well-coached program with a championship pedigree. They are unlikely to make careless mistakes late in games, and to eliminate them, the Bruins will have to be on top of their game.

However, LSU could get knocked out by No. 3-seed Duke in the Sweet 16. After starting 3-6, the Blue Devils turned their season around by winning 17-consecutive games. Now, they are back to what people thought they’d be: a team that can win it all.

Toby Fournier is the engine that keeps Duke running. She is averaging 17.3 points and 8.2 rebounds, leading the team in both categories. While Fournier is great, Duke has a well-balanced attack. They have four players who are double-digit scorers and move the ball well, averaging 17.1 assists per game.

Besides these two teams, No. 6-seed Baylor, No. 7-seed Texas Tech and No. 10-seed Villanova are dark horses who could potentially reach the Elite Eight and give UCLA a good game in the Sacramento region.

No matter the path, UCLA must make it to PHX

Regardless of the potential of other teams, UCLA will be favored in all of these contests—and they should be.

They’ve had just one loss this season, have an elite big, great guard play and their bench features one of the best reserve scorers in Angela Dugalić, the Big Ten Sixth Player of the Year.

This is their year to win it all The program has never had a team this good. They have to to go out there and get it done.

It won’t be easy. There will be some tight contests. But if they are the team they’ve been all year, they should be one of the four teams heading to Phoenix in April with a chance to compete for the national title.

But that’s still just an assumption. Now comes the fun part, seeing if that potential gets realized on college basketball’s biggest stage.