NCAAW: Everything at stake in first four Sweet 16 showdowns

Who is elite?

That’s what’s at stake as the 2025 NCAA Tournament resumes on Friday, when the eight Sweet 16 entrants in Regional 1 (Spokane) and Regional 2 (Birmingham) will vie for four of the spots in the Elite Eight.

The action begins in Birmingham, with No. 3-seed North Carolina meeting No. 2-seed Duke at 2:30 p.m. ET and No. 4-seed Maryland challenging No. 1-seed South Carolina at 5 p.m. ET before shifting to Spokane, where No. 3-seed LSU takes on No. 2-seed NC State at 7:30 p.m. ET and No. 5-seed Ole Miss will face No. 1-seed UCLA at 10 p.m. ET. All four games will be broadcast on ESPN.

Here’s a closer look at Friday’s four Sweet 16 contests:

No. 2-seed Duke vs. No. 3-seed North Carolina (2:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

The Sweet 16 begins will a Triangle Trifecta, as in-state rivals Duke and North Carolina will meet for a third time this season, but the first-time ever in the NCAA Tournament, with the winner not only claiming bragging rights but a spot in the Elite Eight.

The teams’ split their season series, with both sides winning at home. On Jan. 9, the Tar Heels prevailed in an ugly, overtime wrestling match, 53-46. Carolina shot 32.1 percent from the field and 25 percent from 3, poor numbers that still outpaced Duke’s putrid marks of 23.5 percent from the field and a matching 23.5 percent from 3. After sacrificing a 16-point second-half lead, the Tar Heels made their free throws in the extra period to secure the win.

The second game, held on the final day of the ACC regular season, saw a bit more offense, as Reigan Richardson powered the Blue Devils to a big third quarter, scoring 13 of her game-high 23 points in the period to push Duke to the 68-53 win. While the Tar Heels again shot better than the Blue Devils overall, Duke found edges on the margins, winning the rebounding, turnover and assist battles. North Carolina was without All-ACC First Teamer Alyssa Ustby in this one.

Because of the teams’ familiarity with each other, their Sweet 16 showdown could become another knockout, drag-out battle, where points will be hard to come by. As the two best defenses in the ACC, that side of the ball will be prioritized by head coaches Kara Lawson and Courtney Banghart. The team that sees a player shake loose for a scoring spree could then have a critical advantage. The Blue Devils possess more promising candidates. Last year, Richardson posted scoring performances of 25 and 28 points in the NCAA Tournament; she also dropped 35 points this season. Ashlon Jackson also has proven she can fill it up, with a team-best 20 points, all scored in the second half, in Duke’s second-round win over No. 10-seed Oregon.

No. 4-seed Maryland vs. No. 1-seed South Carolina (5 p.m. ET, ESPN)

After requiring a 17-point second-half comeback and double overtime to escape No. 5-seed Alabama on Monday, Maryland needed time to recover before a Sweet 16 date with South Carolina. But, they might need even more. Expect the Gamecocks to be too much for the Terrapins.

In the first round, South Carolina flexed their depth, as their youthful bench of Joyce Edwards, MiLaysia Fulwiley and Tessa Johnson combined for 48 points, matching No. 16-seed Tennessee State’s total points scored in the 60-point rout. A more closely-contested second-round game against No. 9-seed Indiana saw the steady and steeled starters—Te-Hina Paopoa, Bree Hall, Raven Johnson, Sania Feagin and Chloe Kitts—lead South Carolina to victory. It’s a one-two punch that, combined with attention to detail, penchant for game-changing plays, experience on the biggest stage and eagerness to exploit any motivational edge, makes head coach Dawn Staley’s team an unideal opponent in March.

Maryland needs to approach an untapped level execution to have a chance of pulling off the upset. That means buckets on buckets from Kaylene Smikle, box-score stuffing impact from Shyanne Sellers, timely 3-pointers from Sara Te-Biasu and crucial rebounds from Christina Dalce and Saylor Poffenbarger, all aided by a top-notch game plan from head coach Brenda Freese. Otherwise, South Carolina will be dancing into their fifth-straight Elite Eight without missing a beat.

No. 3-seed LSU vs. No. 2-seed NC State (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

The team that completes North Carolina’s Triangle, NC State, also is in action on Friday, looking to return to the Elite Eight against LSU, a team that defeated the Wolfpack during the regular season.

NC State and LSU met at the Baha Mar Pink Flamingo on the day before Thanksgiving, with the Tigers taking care of business, 82-65. LSU was on fire, shooting almost 53 percent from the field and 50 percent from 3, with Mikaylah Williams making four triples and scoring a game-high 24 points as Aneesah Morrow, of course, finished with a double-double of 20 points and 11 boards.

“On fire,” certainly, describes the Tigers’ and Wolfpack’s second-round performances. LSU, again, rang up more than 100 points, separating from No. 6-seed Florida State after halftime. Williams was spectacular, going a sparkling 10-for-12 from the field, including 3-for-3 from 3, as she led the Tigers with 28 points. Morrow was equally excellent, adding seven assists and two steals to her 26-point and 11-rebound double-double.

NC State outpaced No. 7-seed Michigan State from tip off, raining in an NCAA Tournament-record 15 3-pointers on 50 percent shooting. The Pack finished the first quarter 5-for-6 from deep—and didn’t let up. Aziaha James and Madison Hayes were responsible for 11 of the triples, with James hitting six on her way to 26 points and Hayes going 5-for-7 as she finished with 17 points. Saniya Rivers only made one 3, but did just about everything else, scoring 17 points, dishing 11 assists, grabbing eight boards and registering a pair of steals and blocks.

Explosive offense is more characteristic for the Tigers, as they are the sixth-highest scoring team in Division I, netting more than 100 points six times during the regular season. The Wolfpack, in contrast, are more volatile, capable of pouring in points but also prone to scoring droughts, especially when they are forced to create in the halfcourt. Additionally, their second-round 3-point shooting was a pretty severe outlier; the Wolfpack average less than seven made 3s per game on the season, with a team-wide 3-point percentage of 32.5 percent.

Yet, March is often about outliers, where incredible, unsustainable performances can carry a team past their potential. This game features plenty of players who can reach another level and take her team into the Elite Eight, including the aforementioned Williams and Morrow for the Tigers and Rivers and James for the Pack. Add the names of LSU’s Flau’jae Johnson and NC State’s Zoe Brooks to the list. Both teams also have some fearless off-the-bench options in the Tigers’ Kailyn Gilbert and Wolfpack’s Zam Jones.

No. 5-seed Ole Miss vs. No. 1-seed UCLA (10 p.m. ET, ESPN)

After Ole Miss defeated No. 4-seed Baylor to advance to the Sweet 16, head coach Yolett McPhee-McCuin took to social media to emphasize that her team has not made it this far just because of “how athletic we are and how hard we play,” but also because of “how disciplined we are” and “our scheme.” The Rebels are well-rounded team that, as Coach Yo likewise asserted, is well-tested, having played eight of the remaining 16 teams during the regular season.

However, in games against those eight teams (USC, UConn, NC State, Texas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, South Carolina and LSU), Ole Miss managed just one victory, defeating LSU in Baton Rouge on Mar. 2. And it’s going to be far from easy to get a second victory over their ninth Sweet 16-level opponent when they meet UCLA with a trip to the Elite Eight on the line.

Because no matter how great the Rebels’ discipline and schemes, it will be hard to best the top-ranked Bruins and Lauren Betts for 40 minutes. UCLA head coach Cori Close called Betts “generational” after the junior center post a 30-point and 14-rebound double-double in the second round, and just as McPhee-McCuin is right about her team, Close is correct about her player. Betts is excellent not just because she is 6-foot-7, but because she is 6-foot-7 skilled, smart and selfless. She’s become increasingly expert at reading the game on both ends of the floor, knowing when it is time for her to take over and assert her presence or when it is more effective for her to leverage her presence to create opportunities for her teammates.

As teammate Kiki Rice recently said, “Lauren just makes the game easy for everyone on this team. And I think her ability to shoulder so much weight and just do that on a consistent basis and show up for us every single day is something we really admire.”

With the combination of forwards Madison Scott, Star Jacobs and Christeen Iwuala, and likely with some help from guards KK Deans, Kennedy Todd-Williams and Sira Thienou, the undersized Rebels will attempt to disrupt Betts’ processing, throwing a variety of looks at her and the Bruins in an effort to turn this game into a grind. While it won’t be surprising if Ole Miss makes UCLA earn every inch, it will be shocking if the Bruins do not ultimately find a way into the Elite Eight.