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March Madness has a way of sorting out who actually belongs.
While the conversations about the NCAA Tournament bracket tend to fixate on the cream of the crop, several teams lurking just outside the assumed contenders carry indicators that suggest they will be dangerous tournament opponents.
Here’s what the film and data reveals about four teams that could become bracket busters.
West Virginia Mountaineers — Big 12 (24-6, 14-4)
West Virginia enters the tournament as one of the most complete defensive teams in the country. The Mountaineers rank ninth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency against top-100 opponents, and that number is built on a suffocating defense. They force turnovers on nearly a third of opposing possessions, meaning they don’t just defend: They dominate the possession battle.
Offensively, they rank 29th in adjusted efficiency at 111.0, buoyed by a strong offensive rebounding rate that gives them extra possessions when shots don’t fall. Jordan Harrison leads the team in production as an efficient, medium-usage scorer, Kierra Wheeler is the engine in the paint, who rebounds extremely well and is a fairly capable 2-point scorer, and Sydney Shaw’s 41.7 percent 3-point shooting adds spacing.
The concern for this team is just consistency.
WVU went just 2-3 in close games and had moments of offensive stagnation, In both their losses to Big 12-rival TCU they ran into the same issue. But, a team that is locked in defensively not only has a higher floor than most teams, but in a weaker section of the bracket, they also could grind opponents into wars deep into the tournament.
Louisville Cardinals — ACC (25-6, 15-3)
Head coach Jeff Walz’s Cardinals may be the most underrated team in the country right now. Louisville ranks eighth in offensive efficiency against top-100 opponents at 117.9, and most importantly, they are consistent.
Their one vulnerability is the free throw line. They rank 321st in free throw rate, meaning they don’t get there much, and their defense allows opponents to draw fouls at a modest rate; free throw disparity was the biggest reason they lost to ACC-rival Duke at home earlier this year.
But with a solid record against quality opponents and close losses to South Carolina, UConn, Kentucky and Duke this season, Louisville isn’t a team to leave off your Elite Eight board.
Kentucky Wildcats — SEC (23-9, 8-8)
The record looks pedestrian, but the SEC is a gauntlet, and head coach Kenny Brooks’ Wildcats were a team marred by injuries during the early portion of the year.
Kentucky is better than their 8-8 conference record says. The Wildcats rank 17th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and their last 10 games paint an even more encouraging picture. This team is trending up at exactly the right time.
Although his approach might have been questioned, Brooks found a way to motivate his superstar Clara Strack to drop 33 points against Georgia, giving the Wildcats even more momentum as they prepare for a SEC Tournament quarterfinal matchup against South Carolina.
Kentucky plays at a very slow tempo, which is a deliberate choice: They limit possessions and make every shot count. Against a higher seed not used to playing in mud or that efficiently, that pace could be the great equalizer in a tournament setting.
Oregon Ducks — Big Ten (22-11, 8-10)
Oregon’s record looks like a bubble team, but head coach Kelly Graves has the Ducks playing their best basketball of the season when it matters most.
In the Big Ten Tournament, Oregon knocked off Purdue and Maryland—quality wins! Their last 10 games show a 106.9 offensive efficiency and 75.2 defensive efficiency. The Ducks are a team with phenomenal processes, despite the results not reflecting it prior to the conference tournament.
What makes Oregon dangerous is balance and ball movement. They rank 59th in assist rate and shoot 78.3 percent from the free throw line. Katie Fiso runs the show on offense; she leads the team with a 28.6 usage rate while maintaining a 40.4 assist rate, a rare combination of playmaking. Ehis Etute, their best player, is a legitimate two-way force with historic offensive rebounding numbers.
The Ducks have only won six of their last 12 going into tournament play so it’s still unclear if they even make the final 64, but their best basketball is clearly emerging. A program with Oregon’s talent in the right bracket matchup is precisely the kind of team that could ends someone’s season early.
