NCAAW: Maryland is undefeated, but are they true contenders?

Maryland has moved from No. 9 to No. 7 in the nation since we last checked in on them, with their first ranked win of the season coming 74-66 over now-No. 17 Kentucky in Puerto Rico the day before Thanksgiving.

The now 10-0 Terps also picked up a quality win over George Mason on Nov. 23, giving them four wins over teams that are in the Top 61 in the NET rankings (No. 8 Kentucky, No. 32 Princeton, No. 40 Georgetown and No. 61 GMU). They led Kentucky by as many as 20, winning that contest more easily than the final score indicates, and beat Princeton by 16, Georgetown by 19 and GMU by 22. They beat No. 200 UMBC by 33 and every team ranked lower than that by over 40, including Hofstra and Loyola (MD) by over 50. The one situation where they perhaps underachieved was beating No. 180 Towson, coached by former Terp player and 2006 Final Four Most Outstanding Player Laura Harper, by just 18.

It’s a resume that they have to be happy with at the moment. But Maryland has had great starts and/or great stretches in other regular seasons in recent memory. The problem is it’s been a while since they’ve put together a complete regular-season resume that hasn’t left at least a little something to be desired. For the most part, the writing’s been on the wall before they entered the NCAA Tournament—some regular-season shortcoming indicated that they likely weren’t going to be able to compete with the ultra-elite in the later rounds of the Big Dance.

Last season is a perfect example. They started 14-0—the fourth-best start in program history—with wins over then-No. 11 Duke, then-No. 19 Michigan State and then-No. 23 Iowa vaulting them from No. 18 to No. 8. But in their 15th game, they faced a true national championship contender for the first time in a still JuJu Watkins-led No. 4 USC team, and couldn’t play well enough under pressure down the stretch to win a game they were in position to win. They lost Bri McDaniel to an ACL tear two games later and the rest of the season was a struggle that culminated with another close loss to a title contender (South Carolina) in the Sweet 16.

I think it would behoove the Terps to prove to themselves in the regular season that they can beat a true title contender—better yet contenders—so that this time they’re prepared come tournament time.

They’ll have opportunities against No. 4 UCLA on Jan. 18 and No. 6 Michigan on Feb. 28—both road games. But for now, I can’t argue with our editor-in-chief Cat Ariail when she suggests that the current top 5 teams appear to make up Tier 1, with Michigan arguably being a sixth team joining them (I would argue they do), while Maryland begins the second tier.

The Terps still have to get that monkey off their back of beating one of the ultra-elite. They beat then-No. 4 Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament in 2024, but that was an anomaly in an otherwise off season. Their previous top 5 win before that sent them to the 2014 Final Four. That’s quite a while ago, and the Terps have a big hurdle to jump to get back there considering the mental obstacle of performing against the best, as well as the sheer amount of talented players on the top 6 teams this year.

How the Terps’ trusted six performed in the win over the Wildcats

Against the Wildcats, Maryland used a six-player rotation, their tightest of the season. It was the five players who are pretty clearly Maryland’s five best (who are also their top five scorers) plus Mir McLean, who played 25 minutes off the bench. Addi Mack played 40 minutes, Saylor Poffenbarger 37, Oluchi Okananwa 36, Yarden Garzon 30 and Kaylene Smikle 23. Expect Smikle to play more in future big games, as her minutes have been down this season as she works her way back from a leg injury. She and Garzon, expected to be the Terps’ top two scorers this year, did the most damage offensively with 22 and 17 points, respectively, despite playing the least minutes of the Big 5.

It was telling that McLean got the nod off the bench over some other players who have shown more offensively than her against lesser opponents. She was clearly in for her defense, which is battle-tested against top-level competition, and she came up with three steals without it mattering that she scored just two points. McLean’s and Poffenbarger’s defense on Kentucky center Clara Strack was super important, as they held the Kentucky star who averages 15.3 points and 10.8 rebounds to nine and nine. McLean also led Maryland with four offensive rebounds.

Okananwa was notably 0-for-2 from 3 and 0-for-7 from the field with just four points. She is the Terps’ leading scorer on the season with 13.7 points per game. She’s scored in double figures in eight of 10 games, with her six points against Hofstra being a product of playing just 15 minutes in an uncompetitive contest. In the other two games where she’s played over 30, she’s scored at least 20.

She seems so good at times with her steals and fast break layups, proving why she was known for her defense at Duke. Her drives to the basket have been Maryland’s most reliable source of offense at times this season. She’s shooting 61.3 percent on 2-point attempts. The better the competition, the more you’d expect a team to need to rely on its most reliable source and not be able to convert via the more risky options.

Yet that wasn’t the case for the Terps against the Wildcats. Instead, it was the more risky 3-point shot that fell, nine times to be exact, with a 4-for-4 first-half effort coming from a source that had struggled to start the season in Garzon.

Maryland also got back to a reliable form of offense from a year ago in the form of Smikle sinking shots at the stripe. She was 9-for-11; Okananwa notably chipped in with a 4-for-4 showing, as she too knows how to draw contact, though not at the same rate as Smikle, who has been excelling at it ever since her freshman year at Rutgers. For her career, Smikle has hit 80.5 percent of her 5.7 free throws per game.

Checking in on freshmen Addi Mack and Rainey Welson

Mack continued to back up the postulation that she’s going to be a special player by extending her double-digit scoring streak to six games, achieving at least 10 points in each of the first 3 games since our last Maryland update. That included games against good opponents in George Mason and Kentucky, with her having a particularly strong performance against the Wildcats with 15 points, six assists, five rebounds and two steals. She was 5-for-9 from the field, 1-for-1 from 3 and 4-for-4 from the line.

She then was not aggressive in Maryland’s most recent game against Mount St. Mary’s with zero field goal attempts and just two points despite starting and playing 17 minutes. This low-scoring performance lowered her season average, but it’s still third on the team at 11.1.

She STILL has yet to miss a free throw as a collegian, now 20-for-20. And she’s even better than Okananwa on 2-point attempts (63.3 percent), with an overall field goal percentage of 56.9, including an improving 37.5 clip from beyond the arc, where she’s made three of her last four and 6-of-16 overall.

Meanwhile, Maryland’s SportsCenter NEXT 100-ranked freshman, No. 34 Rainey Welson, has taken a backseat to the unranked Mack, but had her first game of note against Mount St. Mary’s with eight points. Yes, it’s not much different from her two previous six-point performances, but what stood out in this one was a 2-for-2 effort from downtown after she had been 0-for-7 to start her career, indicating that she indeed can be a threat from the perimeter.

How big of an issue are the Terps’ turnovers and missed free throws?

Much has been made of the Terps’ struggles with turnovers. They averaged 18.4 turnovers over their first seven games before surrendering a promisingly low 13 to Kentucky in what should have been their toughest challenge in that department. They followed that up with just 10 turnovers against Hofstra, but were back to their sloppy ways with 17 against Mount St. Mary’s.

The Terrapins’ other weakness has emerged at the foul line. Interestingly, Maryland’s four most efficient games from the free throw line have come against their four top-61 NET opponents. Their 21-of-23 (91.3 percent) effort against Kentucky has been their second-best so far and was needed considering they only won by eight points. In their blowout wins against weaker teams, the Terps have been able to afford poor free throw shooting and that’s what they’ve put on display. They need to realize that they’ve been lucky and clean that up.

Most recently, they posted their worst free throw performance (14-for-22; 63.6 percent) against Mount St. Mary’s and their third-worst (22-for-32; 68.8 percent) the game before that against Hofstra. Encouragingly, they’ve attempted at least 18 free throws in every contest thus far. Through Thursday’s games, they ranked 31st in the country in attempts per game with 22.40. They are 32nd with a conversion rate of 77.23 percent.

How much should Maryland trust their depth?

Though the Terps used a short rotation against Kentucky, Isi Ozzy-Momodu, Kyndal Walker and Marya Boiko have shown flashes of potential. They’ve all made notable contributions to the team’s 10-0 start. Welson and Breanna Williams have played less minutes that those three (Welson due to injury), but they too have made some legit contributions, with Williams averaging 10.8 points and 5.5 rebounds on 13-for-16 (81.3 percent) from the field and 17-for-21 (81 percent) from the stripe over her last four appearances.

So Maryland has some depth if they ever want to tap into it. It’s doubtful they will go through their whole Big Ten slate without at some point needing the size of Ozzy-Momodu (6-foot-3), Boiko (6-foot-4) and/or Williams (6-foot-2). There’s a certain 6-foot-7 player for UCLA that one would think would be problematic to deal with without the tallest Terp on the roster in Boiko. Plus, with starting point guard Lea Bartelme out for the year and Mack not being a true point, Walker’s services will likely also be called upon. She was the No. 35 recruit in the SportsCenter NEXT 100 for 2024, while Williams was No. 45.

Another player who was beginning to show promise was Ava McKennie, who went 2-for-3 from deep with five rebounds against Hofstra before, unfortunately, tearing her ACL.. Her absence leaves the Terps with 12 healthy players at the moment, with freshman Nicole Fritea being the 12th. McDaniel will give them 13 when she returns from her ACL tear, suffered on Jan. 14 of this year.