NCAAW: Red River Rivalry renews, starring Chavez and Booker

The first day of February comes with seven double-ranked women’s college basketball games.

The headliner, of course, is the latest edition of the UConn-Tennessee rivalry. Although, as Zack Ward wrote, the Lady Vols’ most recent loss doesn’t inspire much confidence in their ability to hand the Huskies a loss in back-to-back seasons, especially in Hartford.

Instead, one of these emerging rivalries could result in Sunday’s most intriguing game

However, we’re betting that the best game will occur in Austin, where the Big 12-turned-SEC Red River Rivalry pits No. 10 Oklahoma against No. 4 Texas (3 p.m. ET, ABC).

ESPN’s College GameDay will even be there, with Christine Williamson, Andraya Carter and Chiney Ogwumike analyzing all the day’s upcoming action from the Moody Center.

So, what will determine if the Sooners or Longhorns win the 70th edition of the Red River Rivalry?

Aaliyah Chavez and the Sooners can, literally, shoot past the Longhorns

The Sooners should step on the Moody Center court with soaring confidence.

Oklahoma, like Texas, has a win over No. 3 South Carolina, with the Sooners pouring 94 points on the Gamecocks in their overtime win; in contrast, the Longhorns scratched 66 points in their two-point win over the Gamecocks before scoring 65 in their three-point loss at South Carolina. And the last time the Sooners and Longhorns played in Austin in January of 2024, Oklahoma dropped 91 points in the win. Payton Verhulst, Sahara Williams and Beatrice Culliton are the only holdovers from that Sooner team, and Madison Booker is the only current Longhorn who was wearing Burnt Orange that day.

Still, the Sooners’ biggest wins in recent seasons reveal a common theme: It’s about the offense.

Yes, the Oklahoma defense is compiling some impressive statistics. The seventh-best defensive in the nation according to defense rating, the Sooners have held opponents to 32.4 percent shooting, the lowest mark in the nation. A nation-leading 34 defensive boards per game, plus almost six blocks, further fortify Oklahoma’s defense.

But while their defensive solidity can help the Sooners gut out unglamorous wins in SEC play, it’s their offensive explosiveness that can differentiate them from, and thus drive them past, the very of elite. Case in point, it was the absence of such offense that let them down in losses to No. 2 UCLA, No. 17 Ole Miss, No. 18 Kentucky and No. 6 LSU.

On Sunday, their biggest offensive weapon will be their 3-ball. Although Texas has been more turnover prone against upper-echelon teams, suggesting Oklahoma could amp up their defensive aggression and kickstart their transition offense, the Longhorns’ lack of interest in shooting the 3, combined with Oklahoma’s ability to rain fire from long range, could have the Sooners lighting up the scoreboard and cruising to the upset win.

Here, Aaliyah Chavez becomes the X factor. The freshman is going to take 3s, and if she starts making them, it could become game, set, match, Sooners, as South Carolina can attest. Chavez is first in the SEC and second in the nation in total 3-point attempts, uncowed by misses as she maintains a belief that the next shot will go in.

And more frequently, that attitude has merit. She’s shot 40 percent or better from 3 in her last three games.

Verhulst gives Oklahoma another volume shooter, while Zya Vann came through with three crucial 3s against South Carolina.

Texas will be more than happy to match 2-point buckets from Raegan Beers with their own array of middies. If the Sooners make this a 3-point shootout, however, the Longhorns will have to abandon their regular offensive process, which is advantage Sooners.

But, Texas still has Madison Booker

After two-straight losses to LSU and South Carolina, Texas responded by holding Texas A&M to just 35 points. Yes, Oklahoma is much better than A&M, the second-lowest scoring team in the SEC. But, Texas’ defense, the second-best in the nation, can torture opponents with relentless aggression and exacting execution. And, they’ll be prepared to inflict such pain on Oklahoma.

Exploiting Chavez’s eagerness and inexperience will be a priority for the Longhorns, as Rori Harmon will be tasked with frustrating the freshman into ill-advised passes, rushed shots and other eccentricities. Bryanna Preston and Jordan Lee give Texas more defensive depth on the perimeter, while the combined size and strength of the Longhorns, with Kyla Oldacre, Justice Carlton and Breya Cunningham, suggests that, if the 3s aren’t falling for the Sooners, they could have trouble generating efficient offense.

Texas likely will not complain if this devolves into a Red River wrestling match.

Although Oklahoma has been excellent on the defensive glass, the Longhorns have been the SEC’s best team on the offensive glass, led by the irrepressible Oldacre, who is pulling down 4.7 offensive boards in conference contests. And if there’s any player with the frame to not just hold up against but to stonewall Beers, it’s also Oldacre, who has consistently come through in big games during her Texas tenure.

Texas also might have the biggest advantage in this matchup: Madison Booker.

The Sooners don’t have anyone well suited to guard Booker, and even if they did, it might not matter. She can splash in middies, unbothered by defenders’ best efforts. She’s scored 24 points in three of her last four games, helping her compile a 20.1-point scoring average in conference play. Although still off from behind the arc, she’s shooting 56 percent on 2-pointers for the season.

As a freshman, Booker twice cooked against the Sooners, dropping 29 points and 26 points, respectively, as the two teams split their Big 12 conference contests. Last season, she had a quieter game when Texas won at Oklahoma, as the Longhorns were boosted by four 3-pointers from Lee, whose 3s could again be critical on Sunday, and Oldacre, who had 12 points and seven rebounds, with five of them being offensive.

If Booker doesn’t get cooking, the defensive attention the Sooners still will have to devote to her could, once again, create opportunities for other Longhorns to lead UT to a third-straight win over OU.