NCAAW: Should USC’s Kiki Iriafen be the No. 2 pick in the 2025 draft?

Swish Appeal is thrilled to share this story from Jack Bonin, who regularly writes about the Dallas Wings for Mavs Moneyball.

Fresh off a breakout junior season at Stanford, Kiki Iriafen decided it was time for a change.

Though her three seasons with the the Cardinal helped the 6-foot-3 forward establish herself as an elite WNBA prospect, her reasons for transferring to USC for her final collegiate season were plentiful: Iriafen, an LA native, could come home and be close to her family; legendary Stanford coach Tara VanDerveer retired; and USC boasts sophomore phenom JuJu Watkins, perhaps the most talented player in college basketball. It made a ton of sense for Iriafen to head south and join the Trojans for her final year.

But the biggest basketball reason Iriafen gave for transferring involved what playing at USC would mean for her future. On former teammate Haley Jones’s podcast, Sometimes I Hoop, Iriafen emphasized the move was partly about preparing for “a seamless transition to the W[NBA]”. With VanDerveer retired and star teammate Cameron Brink graduating to the W, Iriafen correctly reasoned that playing with Watkins and a supremely talented Trojan team would be the perfect opportunity to build on last year’s success.

Of course, Iriafen’s junior year presents a tough act to follow. After averaging just 6.7 points per game as a sophomore, Iriafen exploded for 19.4 points and 11 rebounds per game last season. She showcased incredible post scoring, excellent midrange touch, impressive athleticism and valuable defensive versatility. Though Iriafen always had immense talent and was a five-star recruit, this production level came out of nowhere. Iriafen started getting mentioned as a potential No. 1 overall pick candidate, possibly challenging UConn phenom Paige Bueckers for the top spot in the 2025 WNBA Draft. Forming a super duo with JuJu Watkins could only help her prospects in that regard.

So, with the 2024-2025 NCAAW season roughly one-third complete, how has Iriafen fared? Is she living up to all that hype?

Red flags in Iriafen’s development—or lack thereof

Well, the short answer is probably “not quite.” Iriafen has remained a prolific scorer (though slightly less so than last year) at 18.5 points per game. Her rebounding has fallen from 11.0 to 9.3, but that’s to be expected with fellow big Rayah Marshall occupying the center spot and grabbing nine boards of her own. Iriafen’s efficiency from the floor has dropped just a touch, going from a 54.6 field goal percentage to 52.5. On the surface, it looks like Iriafen is more or less having the same season she had last year when she broke onto the scene and shot up WNBA draft boards. That’s good, right?

Yes and no. Iriafen is having a very productive season and is still doing many of the things that make her such a tantalizing prospect. Coming into this year, I had two big questions for her:

So far, the answer has been a resounding “no” to both. That worries me a bit.

For a player as athletically gifted and defensively talented as Iriafen is, you’d like to see more blocked shots. Raw block numbers don’t tell the whole story, but 28 total blocks in the last 48 games is a shockingly low number for a 6-foot-3 big with Iriafen’s athleticism. And I understand part of this is because of who Iriafen has played alongside. Cameron Brink was one of the best shot blockers in college basketball history, and Raya Marshall is in a similar class. Iriafen has never had to be the primary rim protector and has played the vast majority of her collegiate minutes at the power forward, or 4, spot. But even factoring this in, Iriafen hasn’t shown much in the way of secondary rim protection either. And it’s possible she hasn’t played the 5 because of an inability to handle the defensive responsibilities of the center position.

If Iriafen is going to strictly play the 4 at the WNBA level, it would behoove her to add a 3-point shot to her game. The W is quickly moving toward a pace-and-space style of play, and good teams need 3-point shooting all over the court. Iriafen took just six total 3s last year, hitting two; this year, she’s attempted five and made two. The optimist would say she’s already matched her total from a season ago. The realist would counter that she’s averaging a measly 0.4 3-point attempts per game. I buy Iriafen’s potential as a shooter; she’s great in the midrange, hits her free throws and has smooth mechanics. But at a certain point, we need to see game reps. Another year of Iriafen as a theoretical shooter makes me a bit uneasy.

Speaking of Iriafen’s mid-range game, it’s declined a bit this year, too. According to CBB Analytics, Iriafen shot 47.4 percent on midrange 2s last year, one of the best marks in basketball. This year, that number is down to 37.7 percent. While that’s still above average, it’s a sharp drop from a season ago. Iriafen is taking the same number of middies (3.8 per game) and hitting far less. Overall, she’s shooting less often and less efficiently than last year. The one positive sign is that Iriafen is getting to the line more frequently; her free-throw attempt rate is up 14.2 percent. And she’s knocking down a career-high 80.6 percent of them, bolstering her true shooting percentage. All of this is to say that while Iriafen is a very good midrange shooter, it’s unclear just how strong her shooting projection is going forward.

If Iriafen doesn’t add these dimensions to her game, I worry she could get stuck as a tweener: a big who can’t play the 5 for extended stretches and can’t shoot enough to be an elite, modern power forward. Iriafen will still be a very good WNBA player, but the upside is capped if this is how it plays out.

Where could Iriafen go in the 2025 draft?

So, what does this mean for her 2025 draft prospects?

Well, barring an unprecedented power play, Bueckers will be picked No. 1 overall by the Dallas Wings. After that, things get very interesting. Iriafen has long been slotted into the No. 2 spot, but Notre Dame guard Olivia Miles has thrown a wrench into that. Miles is having an incredible season coming back from a torn ACL and, though she has another year of college eligibility, could declare for the 2025 draft. If she does, it would be hard to envision the Los Angeles Sparks turning her down. LA already has a crowded frontcourt, with young phenoms Cameron Brink and Rickea Jackson flanking veteran Dearica Hamby. Adding a dynamic point guard like Miles to the equation just makes too much sense.

The Chicago Sky pick No. 3 overall, but Angel Reese and Kamila Cardoso already occupy the 4/5 spots as franchise building blocks. It would be a disservice to both Iriafen and the Sky to make someone play out of position there. I imagine if Miles is off the board when Chicago picks, they will look to trade the third selection to a team enamored with Iriafen. Who could that be? Well, I doubt Washington would give up assets to move up one spot; they already have Shakira Austin, Aaliyah Edwards, Stefanie Dolson, Emily Engstler and Sika Koné in the frontcourt. After that, pretty much every other WNBA team could use a player of Iriafen’s caliber. I wouldn’t be surprised if a team currently outside the lottery ends up with her. That would be a strange outcome for a player who some projected as a possible No. 1 pick, but things change quickly in the landscape of this league.

Iriafen is not done growing her game. Transferring schools can be a tough adjustment for players, and Iriafen has handled it incredibly well. She’s still producing at a high level and is firmly on the lottery pick map. As the season continues, I’ll be keeping a close eye on where Iriafen goes from here. If she starts taking 3s and blocking shots, all bets are off. Iriafen is a captivating player, and it will be fascinating to see what her future holds.