NCAAW: TCU, Baylor meet in Big 12 Tournament championship game

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The 2025 Big 12 Championship game, featuring the No. 1-seed TCU Horned Frogs (30-3; 16-2 Big 12) and No. 2-seed Baylor Bears (27-6; 15-3 Big 12) tips-off this Sunday, March 9 at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN.

It’s been quite a ride for the Horned Frogs, who have had by far their most successful season since joining the Big 12 in 2012. Under second-year head coach Mark Campbell, TCU won its first-ever Big 12 regular-season title, with Campbell earning the conference’s Coach of the Year award and grad transfer Hailey Van Lith taking home Player of the Year honors. The Horned Frogs now have the opportunity to make even more program history by adding a Big 12 Tournament championship to their trophy case.

As the tournament’s top overall seed, TCU advanced directly to the quarterfinals, where the Horned Frogs defeated the No. 9-seed Colorado Buffaloes, 69-62, behind 24 points from Van Lith. TCU then beat the No. 4-seed West Virginia Mountaineers in the semifinals, 71-65, to secure its spot in the championship game.

TCU will now face a familiar foe in the Bears, who most recently outlasted the No. 3-seed Oklahoma State Cowgirls in an overtime thriller, 84-74. Unlike TCU, Baylor is no stranger to Big 12 success; the Bears have won 11 Big 12 Tournament championships dating back to 1997, which is by far the most of any program in the conference. Should Baylor win its 12th title on Sunday, it will be the first under head coach Nicki Collen, who took over for Kim Mulkey in 2021.

While history is certainly on Baylor’s side, TCU has gotten the best of the Bears recently. Back on Jan. 26, TCU defeated Baylor 80-75, thanks in large part to 24 points from Sedona Prince and 21 from Madison Conner. The Horned Frogs were also victorious on March 2, albeit in a much lower-scoring 51-48 contest, with the play of Prince (16 points and 19 rebounds) once again a deciding factor.

Needless to say, Baylor will need to find a way to neutralize the 6-foot-7 Prince on Sunday, which is easier said than done. The Bears have a pair of impressive frontcourt players themselves in Darianna Littlepage-Buggs (14.3 points and 10.5 rebounds per game) and Aaronette Vonleh (14.5 points and 5.6 rebounds per game), and Vonleh in particular has been playing well, most recently scoring a game-high 37 points in Baylor’s win over Oklahoma State.

Sunday’s game could also be determined by how well TCU shoots the 3-pointer. According to Her Hoop Stats, 38.3 percent of TCU’s field goal attempts have come from beyond the arc (No. 24 of 362 Division I teams), and the Horned Frogs lead the country in total 3-pointers made (321). Conner has accounted for 116 of those makes alone, while Van Lith has made 61 3-pointers and Agnes Emma-Nnopu has chipped in 42.

If the head-to-head results from the regular season showed us anything, it’s that TCU is well-equipped to win games that are both low- and high-scoring. There’s a reason why Baylor remains one of the country’s top programs after so many years, though, and the Bears are going to want to come out strong after those two close losses to TCU. Expect another competitive game between the top two teams in the Big 12 as they compete for a conference tournament championship.