NCAAW: Which teams are the March Madness favorites?

The 2025 NCAA Tournament is almost upon us, which means it’s time to bring out the microscope and give each title contender a diagnosis:

The Indomitable

South Carolina’s uncharacteristic three losses have not deprived them of being a top title contender, but we’re comfortably past the era in which articles like these came with a prelude: “South Carolina is far and away the favorite to win the NCAA Tournament.” Not this year. There may not be a transcendent favorite this March, but a handful of programs still stand out: The programs that may have accumulated two or three losses, but haven’t bunkered through waves of failure or adversity.

The flag bearer of the indomitable is, naturally, No. 1-ranked UCLA. After starting 24-0, the Bruins fell flat in both Big Ten conference games against Los Angeles rival, No. 4 USC. JuJu Watkins looked like she had found the Achilles Heel of the nation’s top team, but it’s often said that beating the same team three times in a season is one of the hardest feats in college basketball. A final meeting in the Big Ten Championship saw UCLA finally armor up and finish the job. UCLA and USC are without a doubt two of the hungriest and most prepared programs for the national tournament.

Of course, the indomitable just wouldn’t look right without its poster children: No. 2 South Carolina and No. 3 UConn. Dawn Staley and the Gamecocks only dropped games to other top-five programs this season, but they looked concerningly uncompetitive in 15- and 20-point losses to UCLA and UConn. They don’t struggle to bounce back after a tough loss, but redemption isn’t an opportunity afforded to anyone in March Madness. UConn similarly doesn’t have any “bad” losses, but the Big East isn’t exactly the premier women’s basketball conference. They haven’t faced nearly as many prospective tournament teams since non-conference play concluded. Either way, betting against South Carolina and UConn in postseason play isn’t an advisable risk. They don’t lack premier players, and they certainly don’t lack experienced coaching. To no one’s surprise, both teams have what it takes.

The Gamecocks may have disposed of No. 5 Texas by 19 points in the SEC Championship game, but the Longhorns have earned a spot amongst the other powerhouses. Texas went 1-2 against South Carolina this season, with their only other loss coming to Notre Dame in early December. Stealing a win from the Gamecocks is enough to prove that Texas can hang with the SEC champs, and therefore shouldn’t be scared of a potential fourth matchup in the later stages of the NCAA tournament. They may have lost a chance at a No. 1 seed in the postseason, but there isn’t a single team in the country that doesn’t fear Texas. Texas hasn’t won the NCAA Tournament since 1986, and this could absolutely be their year.

The Surging

Before the ACC Tournament, I said that the one thing No. 7 Duke didn’t have was an impressive stretch of wins that suggested an ability to compete with top postseason teams. That’s no longer true. At all. The Blue Devils tore through the ACC Tournament, dropping off No. 2-seed Notre Dame and No. 1-seed NC State by comfortable margins in the final two games. They also didn’t lean on freshman Toby Fournier for their scoring, something that seemed like an unreliable habit throughout the regular season. Ashlon Jackson and Oluchi Okananwa combined for 26 points in the semifinal and 44 points in the final. Duke also held both Notre Dame and NC State to under 40 percent shooting as a team. If Duke can replicate their offensive efficiency, even without any All-American scorers, they could be legitimate contenders for a national title.

TCU has fared better than anyone could have thought this season, concluding Big 12 conference play with a 16-2 record after last season’s regrettable 6-10 finish. A Big 12 Tournament title was just the cherry on top. A rejuvenated Hailey Van Lith has brought the Horned Frogs to the promised land. TCU is probably in line for a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, and they’ll be able to ramp up their play for one or two games until they face a real threat to their season.

The Sinking

Oh Notre Dame, how you confuse us. The Fighting Irish came out firing in November, looking like the best team in the country for a whole month. Then, they suddenly dropped two back-to-back neutral site games against TCU and Utah. Then, they won 19-straight games and again looked like the nation’s team to beat. Just when you thought you had a good read on the Irish, they lost three of their final five games and failed to even reach the ACC Tournament final.

Notre Dame easily may be the most talented team in the country. Hannah Hidalgo is arguably the best player in the NCAA, and Olivia Miles and Sonia Citron will both be top 10 picks in the upcoming WNBA Draft. The Fighting Irish should be one of the absolute favorites to take home a national championship this year, but they’ve proven to disappoint. They can’t seem to kick this habit of losing winnable games. They have one more chance to prove themselves, and any slip ups will leave a disgusting stain on what should have been a historic season.

No. 10 LSU finished the season on an equally disappointing note. They lost four of their final seven games, folding to Texas in the SEC semifinal. The more concerning losses were to Alabama and Ole Miss—two teams that don’t project to be NCAA title contenders. Aneesah Morrow, Flau’jae Johnson and Mikaylah Williams are one of the best trios in the country, but they’re routinely asked to do it all for the Tigers. LSU can’t afford for two of them to have a bad night. Perfection is rare, but it looks like it may be necessary for LSU to bring home some hardware.

Finally, the other ACC powerhouse felled by Duke’s impressive tournament run: No. 9 NC State. The Wolfpack have been good all throughout the season, but really picked up momentum during ACC play en route to the conference’s top seed. They had a huge double overtime win against Notre Dame at the end of the regular season, but then suffered the same disappointing tournament fate as the Fighting Irish. The Wolfpack are deep team but they have frontcourt issues that have only been marginally solved as the season has progressed. They’ll earn a high seed in the NCAA Tournament, but will need to play their best basketball to avoid exiting earlier than last year’s Final Four run.