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March Madness has arrived, so it’s time to share Swish Appeal’s women’s tournament predictions! Let’s dive into three storylines that I’m watching closely this tournament.
Click here to see Josh’s bracket.
South Carolina vs. Indiana: A sneakily intriguing rematch
While everyone’s focused on potential Final Four matchups, there’s a potential round of 32 matchup that is going under the radar. Assuming the No. 9-seed Indiana Hoosiers upset the No. 8-seed Utah Utes, this will set up a matchup between the Hoosiers and defending champion South Carolina.
When these teams met in the Sweet 16 last year, South Carolina prevailed in a narrow 79-75 win, but Indiana showed they could hang with the undefeated Gamecocks, overcoming a massive deficit in the second half.
The Hoosiers have one of the most creative playbooks in college basketball and the Gamecocks struggled defending the countless sets Indiana runs on a given possession. Also, without Kamilla Cardoso’s presence down low, I’m unsure how automatic South Carolina’s offense will look in a tournament setting. However, Indiana has also taken a massive step back offensively. Previously ranked ninth in the country in offensive rating, they’ve dropped to 83rd this season. I’ve ultimately picked South Carolina to advance, but this rematch could be much closer than the seeding suggests.
USC vs UConn II: The rematch of stars and powerhouses
My bracket has USC and UConn meeting in the Elite Eight, which would be their second meeting this season and their second-straight NCAA tournament matchup. When they faced off in December, USC edged out a narrow victory in what was one of the best games of the regular season.
Statistically, UConn has been the best offense and defense in college basketball this season, and while their relatively weaker schedule might overstate these numbers, Paige Bueckers and Sarah Strong have been sensational this year. UConn will often go through stretches where they rapidly outscore teams in a way that is reminiscent of the Golden State Warriors from years ago. That is how potent this team is.
USC won the previous matchup, in large part due to the greatness of JuJu Watkins. She has been nothing short of sensational in her sophomore year, and if they want to win again, the Trojans will need to rely on their stars to be aggressive in the biggest moments, which is what separates them from the Huskies.
In the last matchup, Bueckers and the Huskies were way too conservative on offense until it was too late to mount a comeback. This has been a common theme with them in more of their games against elite teams, which is why I think USC will prevail in a narrow tournament rematch.
How far can Michigan go?
If there’s any team I believe will make the magical Cinderella run, it’s the Michigan Wolverines. I’ve got Michigan reaching the national championship game. Oftentimes, brackets are too conservative with everyone picking No. 1 and No. 2 seeds to reach the final stage of the Big Dance. Why not switch it up?
Going through Iowa State, Notre Dame and TCU would be an absolute gauntlet, but none of those teams have been playing particularly well as of late, which is why I think Michigan can upset them. The Wolverines are one of the most efficient 3-point shooting teams in the nation. If that shot is falling over the course of this next month, it would not surprise me at all if they went through all three of these teams, including Ohio State and South Carolina, a team they played extremely close in the season opener.
While I ultimately have them falling to USC in the championship game, don’t be surprised if Michigan becomes this year’s bracket buster. Their balanced attack and 3-point shooting could make them dangerous, especially if their shots are falling against relatively slower-paced offenses.
