NCAAW: Why No. 12 TCU could be dangerous deep into March

No. 12 TCU, a program that had back-to-back single digit win seasons just three years ago, has been one of the quickest rising programs in women’s college basketball.

Last year’s 34-4 record and hard-fought Elite Eight campaign earned them a spot amongst the countries top teams, but there was one looming issue: roster turnover. The Horned Frogs came into this season with an entirely new starting five, and only two returning rotation players. They’re chasing a peak that was submitted by Hailey Van Lith and Sedona Prince, neither of whom are back to carry that weight.

Off to a 19-2 start, TCU is on their way to reaching, or exceeding, that peak. However, the Horned Frogs sit outside of the top 10, and rarely make an appearance in conversations about true title contenders. While they have yet to face many of the Big 12 titans, they’re making early, and underrated, case for another dominant postseason run.

TCU’s losses were caused by explainable, and mostly solvable, issues

When accrediting losses, we often force ourselves to find complex intersections of failure rather than just admit the obvious.

Head Coach Mark Campbell will likely tell his team that they didn’t fight hard enough or didn’t execute a scout well or just didn’t come mentally prepared. Those things can all be true. It can also be true that TCU shot 23 percent from 3 on 39 attempts in their overtime loss to Utah, and committed 11 more turnovers than No. 11 Ohio State in a two-point loss to the Buckeyes.

Gross failure in one margin can absolutely be a singular cause for a loss, as it has seemed to be for TCU.

Now, that doesn’t mean those problems are easily fixable, nor does it mean that they aren’t, in turn, caused by something else. TCU doesn’t play particularly far into their bench, usually only going seven deep throughout the course of a game. Against Utah, their streamlined rotation ran out of gas.

Kentucky transfer Clara Silva has been a huge addition to the Horned Frogs frontcourt, but she’s gone from a fringe rotation piece as a freshman to a dominant load-bearing starter as a sophomore. She isn’t used to managing her physicality, and has found herself in foul trouble in a handful of games. Their only other true big (although Marta Suarez plays as an big defensively in some lineups) is Arizona State transfer Kennedy Basham, who hasn’t carved out enough of a role in limited minutes.

Finally, Marta Suarez has a turnover issue. She averages 3.3 turnovers on the year—somehow better than her previous season’s 4.2 average—but her issue flares up against better opponents. She had nine turnovers in the loss to Ohio State. Seven in a one-point win against No. 22 West Virginia. Five apiece against Utah and BYU. Suarez has been yet another huge portal addition for TCU, but her ball security is disastrous for someone who’s been playing college basketball since 2020. Turnovers are a problem she will have to fix if she wants to be trusted offensively come March.

The Horned Frogs’ defensive dominance makes them legit

Glaring issues within TCU’s rotation are still not enough for me to sell on the Horned Frogs.

Through their occasional shooting woes and inability to get to the free throw line, they’ve established one of the most dominant defenses in college basketball. They don’t force a notable number of turnovers, but their actual shot defense has been otherworldly.

While shallow, the size of their frontcourt makes it near impossible for opponents to get high quality looks from inside the arc. Teams are shooting just 34.3 percent on 2-pointers against TCU this year—a mark that is first in the country. Behind an equally-impressive top 30 3-point defense, TCU has the No. 1 defense by opponent field goal percentage in the NCAA, and the No. 6 defense by opponent points per game. They’re fourth in total defensive rebounds and ninth in total blocks. They shoot over 16 percent better than their opponents in each game, on average.

Now, the ever-relevant asterisk on TCU’s season is that they haven’t yet faced some of the more threatening Big 12 opponents. Looming matchups against Texas Tech, Baylor and a backsliding-but-still-potent Iowa State may change the national outlook on the Horned Frogs. It’s very possible that their defense has been inflated by a lopsided schedule, and that it won’t hold up on the same level against fellow ranked teams. However, it hasn’t failed them thus far.

If Olivia Miles can keep the wheels turning on offense, TCU has enough to be make another deep tournament run.