NCAAW: Why UConn will begin the season with a big win

The title defense for No. 1-ranked UConn begins, with the Huskies meeting No. 20 Louisville at the Naval Academy in Annapolis, MD at 5:30 p.m. ET (ESPN).

The opener was supposed to be the first NCAA women’s college basketball game held outside the United States, with Ramstein Air Base in Germany the original site of the matchup. However, due to the government shutdown, ESPN decided in mid-October to relocate the game to the States.

Regardless of location, expect the defending champions to be prepared, as head coach Geno Auriemma demands service academy-like precision from his players every time they take the court. And no Husky has demonstrated such readiness more than Sarah Strong, the 6-foot-2 sophomore forward who is expected to cement her status as the next UConn legend.

Last season, Strong led an 82-52 UConn rout of Louisville, as the two programs met at the Barclays Center as part of the Champions Classic in early December. The then-freshman scored a game-high 21 points, going 8-for-10 from the field as she made all her 2-point attempts while hitting three 3-pointers. Strong also grabbed eight boards, tossed three assists and chipped in a block and steal in her 26 minutes.

Preventing Strong from authoring another efficient performance, while also containing her new frontcourt partner in senior and Wisconsin transfer Serah Williams, might be Louisville’s top priority, albeit one that they are ill-equipped to execute. The Cardinals have more questions than answers in their frontcourt, with head coach Jeff Walz relying on Laura Ziegler, a senior forward who has transferred to Louisville from Saint Joseph’s, to inject a mostly unproven group of bigs with experience.

That means the Cardinals will be relying on their guards and wings to keep the game more competitive than last year’s contest. Tajianna Roberts, last season’s leading scorer, will need help from fellow sophomores Imani Berry and Mackenly Randolph, both of whom arrived at Louisville as more heralded prospects than Roberts.

Yet, even if the Cardinals’ backcourt pops off, the Huskies can counter with shooters, scorers and playmakers of their own, beginning with the sharpshooting senior Azzi Fudd and junior Ashlynn Shade and continuing with the end-to-end energy boosting of KK Arnold. It will be interesting to see how Auriemma rounds out the rest of his rotation, particularly how much run freshmen Blanca Quiñonez and Kelis Fisher are given.

If UConn plays up to their championship standard, they should be on track for a comfortable win that allows all Huskies to get in on the action.

Tennessee vs. NC State will be about 3s

In contrast, the top-10 showdown between No. 8 Tennessee and No. 9 NC State, which tips off in Greensboro, NC at 4 p.m. ET (ESPN2), should be a much more competitive contest. Although, both highly-touted teams enter the matchup needing to navigate changes.

For the Lady Vols, their challenges begin with the late loss of an expected starter, as senior guard Ruby Whitehorn was dismissed from the team on Sunday. Last week, Whitehorn was arrested for the second time since August. Head coach Kim Caldwell shared her decision in a statement that read:

In light of recent events, Ruby has been unable to reflect those standards, and I have made the difficult decision to dismiss her from our team. I love Ruby and will always be rooting for her, but my priority is to uphold the respected reputation of the Lady Vols.

Whitehorn subsequently posted an apology on Instagram.

With a collection of talented transfers and pack of promising freshmen, the Tennessee roster features plenty of players who could step up in Whitehorn’s stead alongside returning stars in junior guard Talaysia Cooper and senior forward Zee Spearman. And with Caldwell committed to a fast-paced system that sees her frequently substitute players, expect most of them to get their chance.

The most interesting are Janiah Barker, the physically-gifted 6-foot-4 senior forward who is back in the SEC after spending last season at UCLA, and Mia Pauldo, the more celebrated of the 5-foot-6 twin freshmen guards. In Tennessee’s 100-point exhibition demolition of Columbus State, Barker had a 15-point and 10-rebound double-double, while Pauldo tied for the team high with 18 points, going 4-for-7 on 3s while also dishing a team-best seven assists.

Head coach Wes Moore gave his Wolfpack a much tougher preseason test, as NC State faced off against No. 10 Maryland. (NC State also had a friendlier exhibition game against High Point.)

That they won against the Terrapins is less important than the information provided by the Pack’s performance. While last season’s guard-dominant team had frontcourt questions, this season’s squad sports a stronger starting big duo. After a year of seasoning, 6-foot-6 sophomore forward Tilda Trygger returns more ready to show off her smooth offensive game, while junior Khamil Pierre, a late transfer from Vanderbilt, brings a brand a highly-productive bully ball; last year, she was first in the SEC in 2-point field goals attempted and made. Against Maryland, Trygger had 15 points while Pierre scored 16, as both players grabbed six boards.

In the backcourt, NC State returns a burgeoning dynamic duo of junior Zoe Brooks and sophomore Zam Jones, while adding junior and UConn transfer Qadence Samuels. Brooks looked ready to serve as the Pack’s top guard in the exhibition win, drawing 10 fouls as she scored a team-best 20 points.

For as much talent as will take the court in Greensboro, this game could come down to 3-point variance.

A traditionally low-volume 3-point shooting team, NC State attempted just 15 totals 3s in their exhibition game, making only five. Tennessee, in contrast, is going to bomb from behind the arc after taking the second-most total 3s in the country last season.

Even if the likes of Pierre and Brooks provide effective 2-point scoring for the Pack, in addition to accumulating a significant amount of free throws by exploiting the Lady Vols’ aggressive defense, Tennessee’s advantage from deep could be too much for NC State to overcome.