It is going to take some getting used to, but it’s a new era of Big Ten basketball. Caitlin Clark is gone, along with Iowa’s dominance, and now teams from the Pac-12, including USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington, are joining the conference.
Their impact will be significant and immediate. According to the Big Ten coaches’ poll, the Trojans are favored to win the conference, and right behind them are the Bruins. The conference’s top five based on the coaches’ expectations is:
USC
UCLA
Ohio State
Maryland
Indiana
It’s unbelievable that the Big Ten is now the big 18; that seems like entirely too many teams crammed into a conference. But it’s a new era of collegiate basketball, and we’ll have to get used to it together. We’ve slotted all 18 teams into tiers, starting with the most likely to contend to the least:
Tier 1—Title contenders: USC, UCLA, Ohio State, Maryland
The Big Ten likely has about half a dozen teams that have a path of making noise during the regular season and conference tournament, but these four are the cream of the crop.
USC, ranked No. 3 is the AP top 25 preseason poll, is as hyped as possible with stars like sophomore star guard JuJu Watkins and Stanford transfer and senior forward Kiki Iriafen ready to lead the Trojans to a national title. They made it to the Elite Eight last year, and with Iriafen now in LA, they are in prime position to win the Big Ten during their first year of competition.
Four Trojans have been named to the Naismith Trophy POY Watch List!
✌️ JuJu Watkins✌️ Kiki Iriafen ✌️ Rayah Marshall✌️ Talia von Oelhoffen pic.twitter.com/CEVU8dmakk
— USC Women’s Basketball (@USCWBB) October 28, 2024
No. 5 UCLA is right on the heels of USC, and with junior center and walking double-double Lauren Betts, expect the Bruins to adjust well to the Big Ten and give USC a run for their money at the top of the conference.
Ohio State is ranked No. 14 in the nation and are coming off their first outright Big Ten title since the 2009-10 season. No one is sleeping on the Buckeyes, even if they aren’t being picked by many to repeat as champions. Junior forward Cotie McMahon was named to the Naismith Trophy Women’s College Player of the Year watch list, and head coach Kevin McGuff is coming off a season where he was named Big Ten Coach of the Year.
Last but certainly not least in the first tier is No. 18 Maryland. Terrapin senior guard Shyanne Sellers is box office, and with her in charge, they’ll be an exciting team to watch and one that can upset the best teams in the country on any given game day.
Tier 2—In the mix: Nebraska, Indiana, Michigan State, Illinois
These teams have a shot of surprising us by punching above their weight this season.
No. 23 Nebraska is no joke. Senior Alexis Markowski is a dominant big who is coming off a year where she averaged 15.7 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 1.3 assists per game. Last season, the Cornhuskers reached the second round of the NCAA Tournament after appearing in the Big Ten Tournament championship game. They’ll have something to say about who wins the Big Ten.
Indiana is basketball royalty, and we expect them to be in contention again this season. Sure, they squeaked into the final spot in the AP top 25, and both the coaches and media polls have them as the fifth-best team in the conference. Still, those are just projections, and everyone acknowledges that they have a formidable team.
Michigan State should field a respectable team this year. They have junior guard and reigning Sixth Player of the Year Theryn Hallock and All-Big Ten graduate wing Julia Ayrault ready to go. The Spartans will have to take a leap to reach the Big Ten’s top tier, but they aren’t far behind.
Last but certainly not least in tier two is Illinois. Fifth-year guard Makira Cook leads the Fighting Illini and she’s expected to have a stellar year, making the Preseason All-Big Ten Team.
Tier 3—Outside looking in: Iowa, Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan
I’m sure many are happy the Iowa Hawkeyes reign is over. It was bound to happen with superstar Clark gone. Perhaps putting them in the third tier is too big of a fall, but they lost generational talent, and that’s not easy to replace.
Penn State has had a lot of turnover from last year, and with so many new players, it’ll be difficult to have a winning season in the Big Ten. The conference is only getting bigger and better, and it’ll be hard for the Lady Lions to rise in the rankings. Wisconsin was 6-12 in conference play last year, and I expect a slight improvement this season. Serah Williams is a certified bucket and should help raise this team’s ceiling.
Michigan lost some key players from last year, and I’m uncertain the backcourt can be good enough to produce many wins. A sub .500 record in Big Ten play feels like a safe bet.
Tier 4—The others: Oregon, Washington, Northwestern, Rutgers, Purdue, Minnesota
There won’t be too much dissecting with this group of teams. With a conference this big, there will be the haves and the have-nots. Last year, Oregon and Washington struggled to earn wins in the Pac-12, and the same will likely be true in the Big Ten.
Northwestern Rutgers, Purdue and Minnesota didn’t make significant enough strides to jump up to the third tier. If I had to pick one team to surprise, it would be Minnesota. They have an exciting guard in Amaya Battle, and if she can take a leap, it might be enough to take the Golden Gophers out of the Big Ten cellar.
